基于多情景模拟的洞庭湖流域LUCC与生境质量耦合演变分析

杨伶; 王金龙; 周文强

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中国环境科学 ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (2) : 863-873.

环境生态

基于多情景模拟的洞庭湖流域LUCC与生境质量耦合演变分析

杨伶¹, 王金龙¹, 周文强²

作者信息 +

Coupling evolution analysis of LUCC and habitat quality in Dongting Lake Basin Based on multi-scenario simulation

YANG Ling¹, WANG Jin-long¹, ZHOU Wen-qiang²

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

以洞庭湖流域为研究区域,本文设定自然发展(情景1)、快速发展(情景2)、耕地保护(情景3)、生态保护(情景4)和可持续发展(情景5)5种情景模式,利用PLUS模型和InVEST模型模拟2030年5种不同情景下的土地利用和生境质量格局,并采用耦合协调度模型探究不同情景下LUCC与生境质量耦合协调特征.研究结果表明:1)土地利用变化模拟结果基本符合情景设置的要求,能较好地反映洞庭湖流域土地利用的演变规律和规划方向.2)2030年洞庭湖流域生境质量水平为:情景4>情景5>情景3>情景1>情景2.3)2030年情景1、情景2和情景3耦合协调发展水平呈下降趋势,且情景3下降程度略高于情景1和情景2;而情景4和情景5呈上升趋势,且情景4上升程度略高于情景5.4)结合情景设置原则,可以发现情景5为洞庭湖流域LUCC与生境质量耦合协调发展空间格局优化提供了规划发展可行性.

Abstract

The Dongting Lake Basin is located in the south of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the north of Nanling Mountains, China. It is an important agricultural production base in China, with many priority areas for biodiversity conservation. The prime idea of multi-scenario simulation is to explore the characteristics of the coupling coordination between land use and land cover change (LUCC) and habitat quality under different scenarios. Five scenarios were proposed, which are natural development (Scenario 1), rapid development (Scenario 2), cultivated land protection (Scenario 3), ecological protection (Scenario 4) and sustainable development (Scenario 5). The PLUS model and InVEST model are used to respectively simulate the land use change and habitat quality under five different scenarios in 2030. The results show that: 1) Simulation results of land use change basically meet the requirements of scenario setting, which can better reflect the evolution rule and land-use planning goals; 2) The habitat quality in 2030 varies in the following order: Scenario 4 > Scenario 5 > Scenario 3 > Scenario 1 > Scenario 2; 3) The coupling coordination in Scenario 1, Scenario 2 and Scenario 3shows a downward trend, among which, the decline of Scenario 3is the highest; while that of Scenario 4 and Scenario 5 demonstrates an upward trend, among which, the increase of Scenario 4is higher than that of Scenario 5). 4) Combined with the principle of scenario setting, Scenario 5 provides an insight to the feasibility of planning and development for the optimization of spatial patterns of coupling coordinated development of LUCC and habitat quality in the Dongting Lake Basin.

导出引用

杨伶, 王金龙, 周文强. 基于多情景模拟的洞庭湖流域LUCC与生境质量耦合演变分析[J]. 中国环境科学. 2023, 43(2): 863-873

YANG Ling, WANG Jin-long, ZHOU Wen-qiang. Coupling evolution analysis of LUCC and habitat quality in Dongting Lake Basin Based on multi-scenario simulation[J]. China Environmental Science. 2023, 43(2): 863-873

中图分类号： X171.1

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基金

国家社科基金一般项目(22BJY094,22BGL169);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(19YJC630166);湖南省自然科学基金面上项目(2022JJ30080);湖南省社会科学基金项目(18YBA462);中国博士后科学基金(2021M693573);湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会课题(XSP22YBC221);湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目(22A0174)