石羊河流域生态系统碳储量时空变化及多情景模拟

许澳康; 胡梦珺; 石晶; 孟祥云; 白清竹; 郭婧玲; 刘烁雅; 张嗣阳

PDF(3523 KB)

中国环境科学 ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (6) : 3365-3375.

环境生态

石羊河流域生态系统碳储量时空变化及多情景模拟

许澳康, 胡梦珺, 石晶, 孟祥云, 白清竹, 郭婧玲, 刘烁雅, 张嗣阳

作者信息 +

Spatial and temporal variability of ecosystem carbon storages and multi-scenario simulation in the Shiyang River basin

XU Ao-kang, HU Meng-jun, SHI Jing, MENG Xiang-yun, BAI Qing-zhu, GUO Jing-ling, LIU Shuo-ya, ZHANG Si-yang

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

以石羊河流域为例,利用InVEST模型评估1990~2020年土地利用变化带来的碳储量效应,耦合PLUS模型模拟2035年在自然发展、生态保护、水资源约束和经济发展情景下土地利用变化及其对碳储量的影响.结果表明:石羊河流域土地利用主要以未利用地,草地和耕地为主,占流域总面积的93%.1990~2020年石羊河流域耕地,水域和建设用地面积呈增长趋势,其余用地面积呈减少趋势.2020~2035年多情景模拟下,只有生态情境中林地和草地面积增加显著.1990~2020年流域碳储量整体呈增长趋势,其中以草地,未利用地和耕地碳储量贡献为主,占碳总量的86%.2020~2035年4种情景下的碳储量均有所增加,但生态保护情景中碳储量增加最为显著,共增加3.75×10⁶t.自然发展情景和经济发展情景下,林地和草地转为耕地的面积远大于转入,碳储量损失较多.水资源约束情景下,耕地主要转出为草地和建设用地,其他各地类之间转换所承载的碳储量基本平衡.生态保护情景下,林地,草地等生态用地转入面积大于转出使区域碳储量增加.研究结果以期为石羊河流域提升陆地生态系统碳储量和规划未来国土空间提供科学依据.

Abstract

Take Shiyang River Basin as an example, the InVEST model was used to evaluate the effect of land use change on carbon storage from 1990 to 2020, and the coupled PLUS model was used to simulate land use change and its impact on carbon storage in 2035 under the scenarios of natural development, ecological protection, water resources constraint and economic development. The results showed that: The land use of Shiyang River Basin was mainly unused land, grassland and cultivated land, accounting for 93% of the total area of the basin. From 1990 to 2020, the area of cultivated land, water area and construction land in Shiyang River basin showed an increasing trend, while the other land area showed a decreasing trend. Under the multi-scenario simulation from 2020 to 2035, the area of forest land and grassland increased significantly only in the ecological scenario. From 1990 to 2020, carbon storage in the basin showed an increasing trend, and grassland, unused land and cultivated land contributed the most carbon storage, accounting for 86% of the total carbon. From 2020 to 2035, carbon storage increases under all four scenarios, but the ecological scenario has the most significant increase, with a total increase of 3.75×10⁶t. Under natural and economic development scenarios, forest land and grassland were mostly converted into cultivated land, resulting in a greater loss of carbon storage. Under the water resource constraint scenario, cultivated land was mainly transferred to grassland and construction land, and the carbon storage carried by the conversion between other regions was basically balanced. Under the ecological protection scenario, the transfer area of forest land, grassland and other ecological land was larger than the transfer area, which increases the regional carbon storage. The results of this study were expected to provide scientific basis for improving carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystem and planning future territorial space in Shiyang River Basin.

导出引用

许澳康, 胡梦珺, 石晶, 孟祥云, 白清竹, 郭婧玲, 刘烁雅, 张嗣阳. 石羊河流域生态系统碳储量时空变化及多情景模拟[J]. 中国环境科学. 2024, 44(6): 3365-3375

XU Ao-kang, HU Meng-jun, SHI Jing, MENG Xiang-yun, BAI Qing-zhu, GUO Jing-ling, LIU Shuo-ya, ZHANG Si-yang. Spatial and temporal variability of ecosystem carbon storages and multi-scenario simulation in the Shiyang River basin[J]. China Environmental Science. 2024, 44(6): 3365-3375

中图分类号： X171.1

参考文献

[1] Houghton R A, House J I, Pongratz J, et al. Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change[J]. Biogeosciences, 2012,9(12):5125-5142.
[2] Li X, Yu G R, He N P. Increased soil organic carbon storage in Chinese terrestrial ecosystems from the 1980s to the 2010s[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019,29(1):49-66.
[3] 厉静文,董锁成,李宇,等.中蒙俄经济走廊土地利用变化格局及其驱动因素研究[J].地理研究, 2021,40(11):3073-3091. Li J W, Dong S C, Li Y, et al. The pattern and driving factors of land use change in the China-Mongolia-Russia economiccorridor[J]. Geographical Research, 2021,40(11):3073-3091.
[4] Li G D, Fang C L, Li Y J, et al. Global impacts of future urban expansion on terrestrial vertebrate diversity[J]. Nature Communications, 2022,13(1):1628.
[5] 陈宁,辛存林,唐道斌,等.中国西北地区多情景土地利用优化与碳储量评估[J].环境科学, 2023,44(8):4655-4665. Chen N, Xin C L, Tang D B, et al. Multi-scenario Land use optimization and carbon storage assessment in Northwest China[J]. Environmental Science, 2023,44(8):4655-4665.
[6] Wang K, Li X, Lyu X, et al. Optimizing the land use and land cover pattern to increase its contribution to carbon neutrality[J]. Remote Sensing, 2022,14(19):4751-4771.
[7] 巩晟萱,张玉虎,李宇航.基于PLUS-InVEST模型的京津冀碳储量变化及预测[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2023,37(6):20-28. Gong S X, Zhang Y H, Li Y H. Spatio-temporal variation and prediction of carbon storage in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region-A PLUS-InVEST model approach[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2023,37(6):20-28.
[8] 林彤,杨木壮,吴大放,等.基于InVEST-PLUS模型的碳储量空间关联性及预测--以广东省为例[J].中国环境科学, 2022,42(10):4827-4839. Lin T, Yang M Z, Wu D F, et al. Spatial correlation and prediction of land use carbon storage based on the InVEST-PLUS model-A case study in Guangdong Province[J]. China Environmental Science, 2022, 42(10):4827-4839.
[9] 邵壮,陈然,赵晶,等.基于FLUS与InVEST模型的北京市生态系统碳储量时空演变与预测[J].生态学报, 2022,42(23):9456-9469. Shao Z, Chen R, Zhao J, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Beijing's ecosystem based on FLUS and InVEST models[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2022,42(23):9456-9469.
[10] 王超越,郭先华,郭莉,等.基于FLUS-InVEST的西北地区土地利用变化及其对碳储量的影响--以呼包鄂榆城市群为例[J].生态环境学报, 2022,31(8):1667-1679. Wang C Y, Guo X H, Guo L, et al. Land use change and its impact on carbon storage in Northwest China based on FLUS-Invest:A case study of Hu-Bao-Er-Yu urban agglomeration[J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2022,31(8):1667-1679.
[11] 张月,张飞,王娟,等.基于LUCC的艾比湖区域生态风险评价及预测研究[J].中国环境科学, 2016,36(11):3465-3474. Zhang Y, Zhang F, Wang J, et al. Ecological risk assessment and prediction of Ebinur Lake region based on Land use/Land cover change[J]. China Environmental Science, 2016,36(11):3465-3474.
[12] 朱文博,张静静,崔耀平,等.基于土地利用变化情景的生态系统碳储量评估--以太行山淇河流域为例[J].地理学报, 2019,74(3):446-459. Zhu W B, Zhang J J, Cui Y P, et al. Assessment of territorial ecosystem carbon storage based on land use change scenario:A case study in Qihe River Basin[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019,74(3):446-459.
[13] Liang X, Guan Q F, Clarke K C, et al. Understanding the drivers of sustainable land expansion using a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model:A case study in Wuhan, China[J]. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2020,85,101569.
[14] Wei Q Q, Mukadasi A, Abudureheman H, et al. Temporal and spatial variation analysis of habitat quality on the PLUS-InVEST model for Ebinur Lake Basin, China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2022,145,109632
[15] Zhao H H,Guo B,Wang G J. Spatial-temporal changes and prediction of carbon storage in the Tibetan Plateau based on PLUS-InVEST model[J]. Forests, 2023,14(7):1352.
[16] 畅建霞,王义民,黄廷林,等.石羊河流域水资源开发利用存在的问题及调控对策[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2006,(1):73-77. Chang J X, Wang Y M, Huang T L, et al. Water resources utilization problems and regulating approachs in the Shiyang River drainage basin[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2006,(1):73-77.
[17] Liu B J, Zhang L, Lu F, et al. Methodology for accounting the net mitigation of China's ecological restoration projects (CANM-EP)[J]. MethodsX, 2019,6:1753-1773.
[18] Tong X W, Wang K L, Yue Y M, et al. Quantifying the effectiveness of ecological restoration projects on long-term vegetation dynamics in the Karst regions of Southwest China[J]. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 2017,54:105-113.
[19] 马勇洁,仲俊涛,米文宝,等.基于青海湖流域土地利用多情景模拟预测的碳储量评估及其脆弱性分析[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2023, 37(10):46-55. Ma Y J, Zhong J T, Mi W B, et al. Assessment and vulnerability analysis on carbon storage based on multi-scenarios simulation andprediction of land use in Qinghai Lake basin[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2023,37(10):46-55.
[20] 张珍明,周运超,田潇,等.喀斯特小流域土壤有机碳空间异质性及储量估算方法[J].生态学报, 2017,37(22):7647-7659. Zhang Z M, Zhou Y C, Tian X, et al. Study on spatial heterogeneity and reserve estimation of soil organic carbon in a small karst catchment[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 37(22):7647-7659.
[21] 黄绍霖,徐涵秋,林娜,等.亚热带地区马尾松林碳储量的遥感估算--以长汀河田盆地为例[J].生态学报, 2013,33(10):2992-3001. Huang S L, Xu H Q, Lin N, et al. Remote-sensing estimate of the carbon storage of subtropical Pinus massoniana forest in the Hetian Basin of County Changting, China[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2013, 33(10):2992-3001.
[22] Huang Q X, Robinson D T, Parker D C. Quantifying spatial-temporal change in land-cover and carbon storage among exurban residential parcels[J]. Landscape Ecology, 2014,29(2):275-291.
[23] Jiang W G, Deng Y, Tang Z H, et al. Modelling the potential impacts of urban ecosystem changes on carbon storage under different scenarios by linking the CLUE-S and the InVEST models[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2017,345:30-40.
[24] 王慧敏,曾永年.青海高原东部土地利用的低碳优化模拟--以海东市为例[J].地理研究, 2015,34(7):1270-1284. Wang H M, Zeng Y N. Land use optimization simulation based on low-carbon emissions in eastern part of Qinghai Plateau[J]. Geographical Research, 2015,34(7):1270-1284.
[25] 刘冠,李国庆,李洁,等.基于InVEST模型的1999~2016年麻塔流域碳储量变化及空间格局研究[J].干旱区研究, 2021,38(1):267-274. Liu G, Li G Q, Li J, et al. Study on change in carbon storage and its spatial pattern in Mata Watershed from 1999 to 2016 based on InVEST model[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021,38(1):267-274.
[26] Wang Y C, Zhao J, Fu J W, Wei W. Effects of the grain for green program on the water ecosystem services in an arid area of China-using the Shiyang River basin as an example[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2019,104:659-668.
[27] 冯永忠,尹振良,王凌阁,等.1980~2020年气候和土地利用变化对甘肃省陆地生态系统碳储量的影响[J].中国沙漠, 2023,43(4):168-179. Feng Y Z, Yin Z L, Wang L G, et al. The impacts of climate change and land use change on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage of Gansu province from 1980 to 2020[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2023,43(4):168-179.
[28] 李文娟.基于RS和GIS的石羊河流域植被降水利用效率的时空特征分析[D].西安:陕西师范大学, 2015. Li W J. Spatial and temporal characteristics of vegetation precipitation use efficiency in Shiyang River Basin based on RS and GIS[D]. Xian:Shaanxi Normal University, 2015.
[29] Xu C L, Zhang Q B, Yu Q, et al. Effects of land use/cover change on carbon storage between 2000 and 2040 in the Yellow River Basin, China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2023,151:110345.
[30] Alam S A, Starr M, Clark B J F. Tree biomass and soil organic carbon densities across the Sudanese woodland savannah:a regional carbon sequestration study[J]. Journal of Arid Environments, 2013,89:67-76.
[31] 陈光水,杨玉盛,刘乐中,等.森林地下碳分配(TBCA)研究进展[J].亚热带资源与环境学报, 2007,2(1):34-42. Chen G Z, Yang Y S, Liu L Z, et al. Research review on total below ground carbon allocation in forest ecosystems[J]. Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment, 2007,2(1):34-42.
[32] 卿苗,赵军,冯超,等.1980~2030年石羊河流域生态系统碳储存服务对土地利用变化的响应[J].生态学报, 2022,42(23):9525-9536. Qing M, Zhao J, Feng C, et al. Response of ecosystem carbon storage service to land-use change in Shiyang River Basin from 1980 to 2030[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2022,42(23):9525-9536.
[33] 杨亮洁,杨永春.石羊河流域土地利用变化对区域碳排放和碳吸收的影响[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 2017,53(6):749-756. Yang L J, Yang Y C. Land use/cover changes and it's effect on carbon emission and carbon absorption in Shiyang River Basin[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences), 2017,53(6):749-756.
[34] 孙毅中,杨静,宋书颖,等.多层次矢量元胞自动机建模及土地利用变化模拟[J].地理学报, 2020,75(10):2164-2179. Sun Y Z, Yang J, Song S Y, et al. Modeling of multilevel vector cellular automata and its simulation of land use change[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020,75(10):2164-2179.
[35] 石晶,石培基,王梓洋,等.基于PLUS-InVEST模型的酒泉市生态系统碳储量时空演变与预测[J].环境科学, 2024,45(1):300-313. Shi J, Shi P J, Wang Z Y, et al. Spatial-temporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Jiuquan City ecosystem based on PLUS-InVEST model[J]. Environmental Science, 2024,45(1):300-313.
[36] 孔君洽,杨荣,苏永中等.基于土地利用/覆被变化的荒漠绿洲碳储量动态评估[J].生态学报, 2018,38(21):7801-7812. Kong J Q, Yang R, Su Y Z, et al. Effect of land use and cover change on carbon storage dynamics in a typical desert oasis[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2018,38(21):7801-7812.
[37] 付超,于贵瑞,方华军,等.中国区域土地利用/覆被变化对陆地碳收支的影响[J].地理科学进展, 2012,31(1):88-96. Fu C, Yu G R, Fang H J, et al. Effects of land use and cover change on terrestrial carbon balance of China[J]. Progress in Geography, 2012, 31(1):88-96.
[38] 闻译竣,石超,王树伟,等.近35年石羊河流域景观格局演变及其驱动因素[J].草业科学, 2023,40(1):303-317. Wen Y J, Shi C, Wang S W, et al. Landscape pattern evolution and its driving forces in the Shiyang River basin from 1986 to 2020[J]. Pratacultural Science, 2023,40(1):303-317.
[39] 王玉洁,秦大河.气候变化及人类活动对西北干旱区水资源影响研究综述[J].气候变化研究进展, 2017,13(5):483-493. Wang Y J, Qin D H. Influence of climate change and human activity on water resources in arid region of Northwest China:An overview[J]. Climate Change Research, 2017,13(5):483-493.
[40] 周兰萍,魏怀东,丁峰,等.1973~2010年石羊河流域耕地时空变化研究[J].干早区研究, 2015,32(3):483-491. Zhou L P, Weu H D, Ding F, et al. Spatial-temporal variation and dynamic evolution of the cultivated land in Shiyang River basin from 1973 to 2010[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2015,32(3):483-491.
[41] 张晓东,颉耀文,史建尧,等.石羊河流域土地利用与景观格局变化[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 2008,(5):19-25. Zhang X D, Xie Y W, Shi J R, et al. Change analysis of land use and landscape patterns in Shiyang River basin[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences), 2008,(5):19-25.
[42] Wang Q Z, Guan Q Y, Sun Y F, et al. Simulation of future land use/cover change (LUCC) in typical watersheds of arid regions under multiple scenarios[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2023, 335,117543.