甘肃省生态系统服务权衡协同关系评估与预测

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摘要以甘肃省为研究区,通过耦合GMMOP与PLUS模型预测2030年4种不同发展情景下甘肃省土地利用状况,利用InVEST模型定量评估碳储量、产水量、土壤保持和生境质量动态变化,分析不同情景下生态系统服务间的权衡协同关系.结果表明:2000~2020年,甘肃省碳储量减少0.081×10⁸t,产水量增加3.086×10¹⁰m³,土壤保持量增加33.857×10¹⁰t,生境质量下降0.009.自然发展情景(ND)下,碳储量、产水量和生境质量均有下降,仅土壤保持量增加0.310×10¹⁰t; 生态保护情景(EP)下,碳储量和土壤保持量显著提高;经济发展情景(ED)下4种生态系统服务均有降低;综合发展情景(CD)下,碳储量增加1.307×10⁸t,其余3种服务均有下降.整体上,除白银市和嘉峪关市外,甘肃省各市州的四种生态系统服务间均呈相互增益的协同关系.4种情景下,大部分地区碳储量和产水量、碳储量和土壤保持、产水量和土壤保持间的协同关系无显著变化,而在ND、EP和CD情景下生境质量与碳储量及产水量的协同关系增强,与土壤保持的协同关系减弱.

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	许静
	刘慧

关键词 ：生态系统服务, 权衡协同, GMMOP-PLUS模型, 多情景模拟, 甘肃省

Abstract：Taking Gansu Province as the study region, the land use status of Gansu Province was predicted under four different development scenarios in 2030 by coupling the GMMOP and PLUS model, and the dynamic changes of carbon storage, water yield, soil conservation and habitat quality were assessed quantitatively by using the InVEST model, and the trade-offs and synergies relationships between the ecosystem services were analyzed under different scenarios. The results showed that, from 2000 to 2020, the carbon storage in Gansu Province decreased by 0.081×10⁸t, water yield increased by 3.086×10¹⁰m³, soil conservation increased by 33.857×10¹⁰t, habitat quality decreased by 0.009. Under the natural development (ND) scenario, all the carbon storage, water yield and habitat quality decreased, with only an increase of soil conservation by 0.310×10¹⁰t; under the ecological protection (EP) scenario, carbon storage and soil conservation increased significantly; all four ecosystem services decreased under the economic development (ED) scenario; and in the comprehensive development (CD) scenario, carbon storage increased by 1.307×10⁸t, with the other three services declining. Overall, synergistic relationships were observed between the four ecosystem services in all cities and prefectures of Gansu Province, except for Baiyin City and Jiayuguan City. Under the four scenarios, there was no significant change in the synergistic relationship between carbon storage and water yield, carbon storage and soil conservation, and water yield and soil conservation in most regions. However, under the ND, EP, and CD scenarios, the synergistic relationship between habitat quality and carbon storage, habitat quality and water yield increased, while the synergistic relationship between habitat quality and soil conservation decreased.

Key words： ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies GMMOP-PLUS model multi-scenario simulation Gansu Province

收稿日期: 2023-09-05

PACS:

X171.1

基金资助:国家社会科学基金项目(23BJY198);甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目(2023YB052);甘肃省教育厅“双一流”科研重点项目(GSSYLXM-06)

通讯作者: 许静,教授,xujing@lzufe.edu.cn E-mail: xujing@lzufe.edu.cn

引用本文:

许静, 刘慧. 甘肃省生态系统服务权衡协同关系评估与预测[J]. 中国环境科学, 2024, 44(4): 1863-1874. XU Jing, LIU Hui. Assessment and prediction of ecosystem services trade-offs and synergies relationships in Gansu Province. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(4): 1863-1874.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V44/I4/1863

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