基于PLUS-InVEST模型碳储量时空演变及驱动因素分析——以纳帕海流域为例

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摘要以纳帕海流域为例,利用PLUS-InVEST模型和地理探测器等方法,对过去20a和未来不同情境下该流域的土地利用变化、碳储量时空演变规律以及空间分异驱动因素进行了深入分析.研究结果表明:(1)2000~2020年,水域、建设用地面积分别增加143.98%、451.86%,耕地、草地面积分别减少61.37%、20.53%,耕地和草地主要转化为建设用地,部分草地也转化为林地;(2)纳帕海流域碳储量在过去20a中总体呈现下降趋势,共减少了0.63×10⁶t,草地和耕地的下降和建设用地的增加是碳储量减少的主要原因;(3)与2020年相比,未来2035年不同情景下的碳储量,除自然发展和耕地保护情景外,其他情景下均呈增加趋势,碳储量总量分别为18.11×10⁶t,18.17×10⁶t,18.29×10⁶和18.31×10⁶t;(4) DEM (0.533),年均温(0.442)和NDVI (0.365)是驱动纳帕海流域碳储量空间分异的主导因子;(5)各驱动因子间的交互作用强度均强于单一因子,其中协同作用最强的是DEM与NDVI协同影响类型(0.633).研究结果可为纳帕海流域土地利用合理规划及碳汇功能提升提供数据支撑.

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关键词 ：碳储量, 驱动因子, Plus-InVEST模型, 地理探测器, 纳帕海流域

Abstract：Taking the Napa Sea basin as the study area, by using the PLUS-InVEST model and geographic detector methods. Providing a scientific understanding on change pattern of carbon sink function in this basin, evolution patterns of spatial and temporal driving factors of carbon storage were studied over the past 20 years, and the evolution tendency were predicted in future under four kinds of different scenarios based on the PLUS-InVEST model in Napa Sea Basin. The results showed: (1) From 2000 to 2020, water area and construction land respectively increased by 143.98% and 451.86%, and farmland and grassland respectively decreased by 61.37% and 20.53%. Farmland and grassland was mainly transferred to construction land, some grassland transferred to forest land. (2) In the past 20years, carbon storage showed a downward trend, with a total decreased of 0.63×10⁶ tons. Decline of grassland and farmland and increase of construction land were the main reasons for decrease of carbon storage in the basin. (3) Compared carbon storage under different scenarios in 2020with in 2035, its will increase under two kinds of scenarios except for the natural development and cultivated land protection scenario, and total carbon storage will be respectively 18.11×10⁶t, 18.17×10⁶t, 18.31×10⁶ and 18.29×10⁶t for each scenario. (4) DEM (0.533), mean annual temperature (0.442), and NDVI (0.365) were the dominant factors driving the evolution of carbon storage in the basin. (5) The interaction effects among the driving factors was stronger than that of single factors, and synergistic effect of DEM and NDVI (0.633) was the strongest. The results can provide data support for how to improve rationality of land use and function of carbon sink scientifically in Napa Sea Basin.

Key words： carbon storage driving factor Plus-InVEST model geodetector Napa Sea Basin

收稿日期: 2024-02-11

PACS:

X171.1

基金资助:云南省一流学科建设项目(云教发[2022]73号);长江生态保护修复城市驻点跟踪研究项目(2022-LHYJ-02-0510-04);国家自然科学基金资助项目(31360122)

通讯作者: 栗忠飞,教授,lizhongfei2016@163.com E-mail: lizhongfei2016@163.com

作者简介: 张爽(1999-),女,河北唐山人,西南林业大学生态与环境学院硕士研究生,主要从事环境生态学研究.发表论文2篇.zshzhangshuang@163.com

引用本文:

张爽, 高启晨, 张戎, 宋晨珲, 栗忠飞. 基于PLUS-InVEST模型碳储量时空演变及驱动因素分析——以纳帕海流域为例[J]. 中国环境科学, 2024, 44(9): 5192-5201. ZHANG Shuang, GAO Qi-chen, ZHANG Rong, SONG Chen-hui, LI Zhong-fei. Evaluating the changes and driving factors of carbon storage using the PLUS-InVEST Model: A case study of Napa Sea Basin. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(9): 5192-5201.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V44/I9/5192

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