A precise simulation and measurement of the time-resolved and spatial distribution characteristics of carbon dioxide (CO2) can help critical references to the formulation of reasonable and differential carbon emission reduction policies. Taking the DMSP/OLS nighttime light data as basic data, this paper extracted the urban built-up area in Chinese mainland on the basis of data rectification, pixel desaturation and outliers elimination. To simulate China's carbon emissions in the period of 2000 to 2013, the carbon emission panel data model was constructed according to the quantitative correlations between DMSP/OLS nighttime light image data and carbon emission statistics. Then the spatio-temporal evolving trend and spatial distribution characteristics of carbon emissions in the research period of 14 years were discussed using Theil-Sen Median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall test method. The results showed that: 1) by correcting the DMSP/OLS nighttime light image data systematically, the simulation here of long-time serial carbon emissions showed high accuracy. The determination coefficient value, R2, from the multiscale regression test for the year of 2002, 2007, 2012 were 0.893, 0.955 and 0.951, respectively. 2) It indicated that the overall carbon emissions from 2000 to 2013 in China have a significant characteristic of spatial-temporal evolution. The stable-slow rise type and rapid rise type carbon emission aeras accounted for 77.6% and 19.4% respectively of the total carbon emissions areas. It also showed that most regions in China were dominated by a stable-slow rise type, while the urban centers and its extended regions show a rapid rise type. 3) By the influence of city size and urbanization level, cities of the rapid rise type showed a clear directional difference with ‘hollow structure’ or ‘centered structure’. This study proposes that, the essential transformation of economic growth pattern and the development mode, as well as the implementation of different carbon emission reduction measures adapted to local conditions and provinces-regions linked strategy are the vital approach to achieve the “targeted emission alleviation”.
张永年, 潘竟虎. 基于DMSP/OLS数据的中国碳排放时空模拟与分异格局[J]. 中国环境科学, 2019, 39(4): 1436-1446.
ZHANG Yong-nian, PAN Jing-hu. Spatio-temporal simulation and differentiation pattern of carbon emissions in China based on DMSP/OLS nighttime light data. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2019, 39(4): 1436-1446.
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