Provincial decomposition of China's carbon emission rights under the constraint of 2020 and 2030 carbon intensity targets
WANG Yong1,2, CHENG Yu1, YANG Guang-chun1, DONG Ying1
1. School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China;
2. Postdoctoral Research Station, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China
A provincial allocation model for carbon emission rights was established in this paper. Under the constraints of China's 2020 and 2030 carbon intensity targets, the provinces' allocation of carbon emission rights was carried out in stages. The results show that the distribution of carbon emission rights varies from region to region in China from 2016 to 2020. The five provinces with the most carbon emission rights quotas are Guangdong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and Shanxi, where the economic development level and historical carbon emissions are among the highest in the country. The five provinces with the lowest quota are Anhui, Jilin and Gansu. Ningxia and Guizhou. The pressure on emission reduction varies greatly across regions. Shanxi, Shandong, Liaoning and Shaanxi have serious shortage of carbon space at the initial node in 2016, and they need to bear greater pressures to reduce emissions. Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shanghai have relatively low emission reduction pressures. From 2021 to 2030, the distribution of carbon emission rights in each province is basically the same as that in the first stage. All provinces have surplus in carbon emission space in 2030. As of 2030, some regions (such as Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Jilin, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Guizhou, etc.) have relatively limited carbon emissions, and there are still significant pressures to meet the emission reduction targets on time. Considering that different provinces and regions face different emission reduction tasks and pressures, formulating differentiated emission reduction policies and giving appropriate support to policies is the key to ensuring the smooth achievement of China's emission reduction targets.
王勇, 程瑜, 杨光春, 董莹. 2020和2030年碳强度目标约束下中国碳排放权的省区分解[J]. 中国环境科学, 2018, 38(8): 3180-3188.
WANG Yong, CHENG Yu, YANG Guang-chun, DONG Ying. Provincial decomposition of China's carbon emission rights under the constraint of 2020 and 2030 carbon intensity targets. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2018, 38(8): 3180-3188.
Yuan Y, Cai W J, Wang C, et al. Regional allocation of CO2 intensity reduction targets based on cluster analysis[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2012,3(4):220-228.
Wang K, Zhang X, Wei Y, et al. Regional allocation of CO2 emissions allowance over provinces in China by 2020[C]//第十三届中国科协年会第7分会场-实现"2020年单位GDP二氧化碳排放强度下降40-45%"的途径研讨会论文集, 2011:6.
[8]
Yi W, Zou L, Guo J, et al. How can China reach its CO2 intensity reduction targets by 2020?A regional allocation based on equity and development[J]. Energy Policy, 2011,9(5):2407-2415.
