Uncertainty analysis of emission inventory of PM10 from open source blowing dust from wind erosion of bare soil in Tianjin
HU Li-yuan1, CHEN Li1, MAO Jian1, SUN Yan-ling1, GAO Shuang1, YANG Wen2, XIAO Jian3, ZHANG Hui1
1. School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China;
3. Tianjin Jinnan Meteorological Bureau, Tianjin 300350, China
The emission inventory of particulate matter of wind erosion from bare soil in the suburbs of Tianjin in 2016 was estimated used PMEI-WES (Particulate Matter Emission Inventory-Wind Erosion System). Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyze the impact of the uncertainty in major meteorological parameters and soil parameters on emissions fluxes, and quantify the uncertainty of emission inventory. The results indicated that the total amount of PM10 emission from wind-blown dust in the suburbs of Tianjin in 2016 was 22025.1731t. Wind speed was the most important parameter affecting emissions. The emission fluxes increased exponentially with wind speed. Soil calcium carbonate was positively correlated with emission fluxes, and soil organic matter was negatively correlated with emission fluxes. The 95% probability range of total emissions was (15237.7581t, 37434.8873t), the uncertainty rate was (-37.48%, 53.60%); the 90% probability range of total emissions was (16111.8606t, 36104.7554t), the uncertainty rate was (-33.89%, 48.14%). The uncertainty of emission amount was most significantly associated with the error of wind speed in each district. The soil parameters had a greater impact on the extreme value of uncertainty.
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HU Li-yuan, CHEN Li, MAO Jian, SUN Yan-ling, GAO Shuang, YANG Wen, XIAO Jian, ZHANG Hui. Uncertainty analysis of emission inventory of PM10 from open source blowing dust from wind erosion of bare soil in Tianjin. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(1): 41-51.
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