最低气温对兰州市呼吸系统疾病就诊人次的影响研究

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摘要

通过2013年1月1日~2017年7月31日兰州市呼吸系统疾病逐日就诊资料和气象资料，采用分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）方法，分析0~30d滞后影响，研究极端低温对不同年龄（<15岁、16~45岁、46~60岁、>60岁）和性别人群呼吸系统疾病就诊人次的影响.结果发现：日均最低温度对相对危险度（RR）的最大RR变化范围为0.89~1.41，变化趋势整体呈现出V字型，在低温附近，温度越低，RR越高；滞后0~4d，极端低温代表的冷效应影响最为显著；滞后5~19d，在日均最低温度0℃附近，出现新的峰值，冷效应对RR的贡献有所下降，热效应对RR的贡献完全消失；滞后20~30d，日均最低温度为-10℃时，出现RR最小值，0℃温度点附近维持RR峰值；滞后22d时，滞后影响完全消失.在极端低温条件下，呼吸系统疾病对低龄人群表现出长期滞后性和高发性，对高龄人群表现出短期滞后性.男性比女性患病的滞后效应更长，患病风险更大.

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	冯风流
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	马玉霞

关键词 ：极端低温, 日均最低温度, 呼吸系统疾病, 分布滞后非线性模型

Abstract：

In the current study, we evaluated the effect of extreme low temperature on respiratory diseases in Lanzhou from January 1, 2013 to July 31, 2017 using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) based on the daily data of meteorology and hospital visitsfor respiratory diseases.Age (≤ 15years, 16-45years, 46 -60years, ≥ 60years) and gender (male and female) modification were also performed. Results indicatedthe greatestlag effect of average daily minimum temperature (T_min) on relative risks (RRs)for respiratory diseases. The maximum RR value ranged from 0.89 to 1.41 and the response-effect curvewas V-shaped. At lag of 0~4d, the cold effect represented by extreme low temperature was the most significant. Atlag of 5~19d, a new peak appeared near T_min at 0℃, and the cold effect started to decrease, while the heat effect disappeared completely. At lag of 20~30d, the minimum RR value appeared when T_min was -10℃ and the peak value was near the temperature point of 0℃. Lag effect completely disappearedat 22d. Under extreme low temperatures, respiratory diseases showed long-term hysteresis and higherrisksforthe younger ages, while short-term hysteresis and lowerriskforthe older ages. As to the gender, males showed a longer lag effect than females.

Key words： extreme low temperature daily minimum temperature respiratory diseases distributed lag linear and non-linear models

收稿日期: 2019-10-08

PACS:	X18
	X503.1

基金资助:

国家自然科学基金资助项目（41975141）

通讯作者: 马玉霞,教授,mayuxia07@lzu.edxu.cn E-mail: mayuxia07@lzu.edxu.cn

作者简介: 冯风流(1998-),男,河南郑州人,兰州大学硕士研究生,主要从事气候学、医疗气象等方面研究.

引用本文:

冯风流, 张艺凡, 焦浩然, 程博文, 马玉霞. 最低气温对兰州市呼吸系统疾病就诊人次的影响研究[J]. 中国环境科学, 2020, 40(4): 1782-1791. FENG Feng-liu, ZHANG Yi-fan, JIAO Hao-ran, CHENG Bo-wen, MA Yu-xia. Effects of minimumtemperatureonrespiratorydiseasesin Lanzhou. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(4): 1782-1791.

链接本文:

http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2020/V40/I4/1782

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