基于变权理论和DPSIRM的中国森林生态安全评价

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摘要为克服常权权重不能精准刻画生态和经济复杂交互关系的缺陷，结合变权理论和DPSIRM因果框架，构建了包含6个子系统、23个具体指标的中国森林生态安全评价体系.基于2006~2018年的中国统计年鉴数据、林业统计年鉴数据及相关数据资料，运用K-means聚类法和变权理论对中国大陆31个省（市、自治区）（不包含台湾、香港、澳门）的森林生态安全状况进行评价.结果表明：（1）在研究时期内，基于DPSIRM因果框架的中国森林生态安全总指数呈现“W”型总体上升的小幅波动趋势；（2）经过变权处理后，状态子系统平均权重最大达到0.0781，管理和响应子系统次之，分别达到0.0728和0.0640，管理子系统平均得分呈“N”型变化趋势，与其他子系统相互作用显著，对森林生态安全具有全局性影响.（3）研究期内，大部分省（市、自治区）森林生态安全综合评估值呈现平稳上升或先降后升趋势，仅有辽宁、西藏等地区波动下降.区域森林生态安全状况差异明显，西南地区平均得分最高达0.3414，西北、华东、华中地区平均得分远低于各地区平均水平0.2794.（4）中国的森林生态安全状况整体呈改善趋势，但各省（市、自治区）之间森林生态安全状况呈现严重分化现象，传统林业优势地区森林生态安全状况较好，而经济高速发展地区的森林生态风险较大.建议在未来的森林生态安全管理中需重点关注生态脆弱区和经济发达地区，在加强现有森林资源保护的基础上，继续大力实施和推进林业生态恢复工程建设.

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	李坦
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关键词 ：森林生态安全, 变权, DPSIRM模型, K-means聚类

Abstract：This study combined the variable weight theory and the DPSIRM causality framework to construct an evaluation system with 6subsystems and 23 indicators for forest ecological security in China. The constructed system was applied to evaluate the status of forest ecological security of 31 provinces (cities, autonomous regions) in China during 2005~2017, drawing on data collected mainly from 2006~2018 China Statistical Yearbook and forestry statistical yearbook and using the K-means clustering method guided by the variable weight theory. The results showed that:(1) During the study period, China's forest ecological security measured by the DPSIRM-based index exhibited an overall increasing yet slightly W-shaped fluctuating trend. (2) The mean value of the variable weight was found to be the highest for the State subsystem (0.0781), followed by the Management (0.0728) and Response (0.0640) subsystems. The mean score of the Management subsystem showed an N-shaped changing trend, significantly interacting with the other subsystems and substantially affecting overall forest ecological security. (3) The comprehensive value of forest ecological security in most provinces showed either a steady increase or a fluctuating upward trend, while the values in Liaoning, Tibet and the other areas fluctuated and declined. There were evident differences in the status of regional forest ecological security, as the mean score of Southwest China was as high as 0.3414 but the mean scores of Northwest China, East China and Central China were much lower than the national average level of 0.2794. (4) The overall situation of forest ecological security in China revealed an improving trend at the national level, albeit with a serious divergence phenomenon across regions at the provincial level. Specifically, areas with traditional forestry advantages possessed relatively benign situation of forest ecological security, while those with rapid economic development entailed higher ecological risk. It was suggested that forest ecological restoration projects should be vigorously implemented and promoted by prioritizing ecologically fragile areas and economically developed areas to strengthen the protection of existing forest resources.

Key words： forest ecological security variable weights DPSIRM model K-means

收稿日期: 2020-10-14

PACS:	X171
	S718.5

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目（71873003）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（71503004）

通讯作者: 李坦,副教授,litan@ahau.edu.cn E-mail: litan@ahau.edu.cn

作者简介: 李坦(1986-),女,安徽铜陵人,博士,副教授,主要从事自然资源评价方面研究.发表论文30余篇.

引用本文:

李坦, 陈天宇, 米锋, 马龙波. 基于变权理论和DPSIRM的中国森林生态安全评价[J]. 中国环境科学, 2021, 41(5): 2411-2422. LI Tan, CHEN Tian-yu, MI Feng, MA Long-bo. Evaluation of China's forest ecological security based on variable weight theory and DPSIRM. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(5): 2411-2422.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2021/V41/I5/2411

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