城市空气质量达标规划的逻辑框架

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摘要针对环境空气质量达标规划目前没有明确规划编制的基本要求和主要内容之间的关联原则、未将长期规划方案落实到日常管理方案、过于重视长期空气质量目标与减排情景方案而对污染物减排方案重视不足、未将规划的成本效益分析作为主要方案设计依据等逻辑不清的问题，从人群健康的角度出发，构建达标规划的逻辑框架：提出空气质量目标和人群健康目标相一致的目标体系；设计与空气质量目标一致的污染物减排方案，通过成本效益或成本有效性分析明确优先序，按照重污染日（周）、重污染月、采暖期等优先序实施区域内污染物排放量的绝对减排，并落实到排污许可证中；实施空气质量“日”管理，根据预测模型对未来重污染天气进行污染源排放管理，并对污染源减排方案实施持续动态评估和调整.

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	宋国君
	杨啸
	时钰

关键词 ：达标规划, 逻辑框架, 成本效益, 目标体系

Abstract：The current air quality attainment planning had several shortcomings, including inconsistent aims, impracticability, and lack of cost-benefit analysis in selecting appropriate alternatives. A logical framework is designed to demonstrate the attainment planning based on public health. The system of aims is demonstrated, which consists of the aim of planning, air quality, and human health. The emission reduction plan is designed to reduce pollutants according to priorities. Cost-benefit analysis should be conducted to determine priorities, such as heavy pollution day (week, month) and heating season. The plan should be included in the pollutant emission permit to be implemented. When implementing the plan, the machine-learning models can be used to better support the emission management, and the plan should be assessed dynamically to be adjusted.

Key words： attainment planning logical framework cost-benefit analysis system of aims

收稿日期: 2020-12-15

PACS:

X321

基金资助:中央高校建设世界一流大学（学科）（311318410100）；特色发展引导专项资金资助项目（311319200700）

通讯作者: 宋国君,教授,songguojun@roc.edu.cn E-mail: songguojun@roc.edu.cn

作者简介: 宋国君(1962-),男,黑龙江东宁人,教授,博士,主要研究方向为环境政策与管理.发表论文200余篇.

引用本文:

宋国君, 杨啸, 时钰. 城市空气质量达标规划的逻辑框架[J]. 中国环境科学, 2021, 41(8): 3917-3926. SONG Guo-jun, YANG Xiao, SHI Yu. The logical framework of air quality attainment planning. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(8): 3917-3926.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2021/V41/I8/3917

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