Impact of landscape ecological risk change on flood in Lianshui watershed
SHENG Fei1, LIU Shi-yu1, DAI Yu-dian1, GUAN Xing-zhong2, LU Jing-yuan2
1. College of Land Resources and Environment, Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Watershed Agricultural Resources and Ecology of Jiangxi Province, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China; 2. Jiangxi Hydrology Monitoring Center, Nanchang 330002, China
Abstract：The Lianshui watershed located in southern Jiangxi province was selected to examine changes in landscape pattern from 1995 to 2020, as well as the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of landscape ecological risk at both the whole watershed and sub-watershed scales. The HEC-HMS model was utilized to simulate the flood process of 120 rainstorm events in the studied watershed under different landscape pattern scenarios for 1995 and 2005. Furthermore, Spearman correlation analysis was conducted to investigate the influence of changes in landscape ecological risk on floods. The results revealed that forested land constituted the primary landscape type with the highest area proportion within the watershed. However, other woodland experienced significant changes between 1995 and 2005, while construction land exhibited a substantial increase from 2005 to 2020. At the whole watershed scale, average values of the landscape ecological risk index were found to be 0.0621 (in 1995), 0.0543 (in 2005), and 0.0532 (in 2020), indicating a decreasing trend in overall landscape ecological risk, transforming from high level to low level. At a more detailed sub-watershed scale analysis, it was observed that certain sub-watersheds such as W170, W180, W210, and W260 displayed a downward trend regarding their respective levels of landscape ecological risk over time. However, W140 and W230 exhibited a dynamic change pattern characterized by an initial decrease followed by an increase. Finally, W220 demonstrated an opposite trend with an initial increase followed by a subsequent decrease. The period between 1995 and 2005 witnessed dramatic shifts in terms of landscape ecological risk levels. The average correlation coefficient values depicted in the box plots between the rate of change in the landscape ecological risk index and the rate of change in peak flow and total flood volume were 0.616and 0.603, respectively. The fluctuations observed in the landscape ecological risk within the watershed had a significant impact on flooding, with a greater influence on peak flow compared to total flood volume.
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