基于不确定性分析的畜禽粪污土地承载力评估——以排泄系数不确定性为例

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摘要为推动农业废弃物综合利用,采用了不确定性分析的方法进行区域内畜禽养殖粪污还田导致的氮磷污染风险评估,将黑龙江省作为研究案例,结合统计年鉴与官方报道,分析了畜禽粪污土地承载力对还田利用的秸秆和粪污中养分的敏感性,并进行了基于排泄系数不确定性的养分超过土地消纳能力情况分析.结果表明:敏感性分析显示以氮计的承载力对秸秆中养分更为敏感且并未发生养分超载;以磷计的承载力对粪污中养分更为敏感,大庆、绥化、牡丹江、七台河、齐齐哈尔、哈尔滨、伊春七市发生磷养分超载;不确定性分析结果显示哈尔滨、齐齐哈尔、伊春、七台河四市磷养分超载概率低于40%,大庆、绥化和牡丹江三市超载概率达到91%、63%和65%,其余各市超载概率为0.通过不确定性分析,绝大多数地区磷养分超载概率低,但大庆、绥化和牡丹江三市超载风险高.因此,相关地区需增强磷排放监测,加大防污措施,合理调整养殖规模.

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	王圣伟
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关键词 ：畜禽粪污, 秸秆, 土地承载力, 排泄系数, 不确定性分析, 敏感性分析

Abstract：Uncertainty analysis was used to assess the risk of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution from the application of livestock manure to farmland in Heilongjiang Province, a case study for promoting the comprehensive use of agricultural waste. The sensitivity of the land bearing capacity for livestock manure to the nutrients in straw and manure was analyzed using statistical yearbooks and official reports. At the same time, an analysis of nutrients exceeding the land bearing capacity based on the uncertainty of excretion coefficients was also conducted. The results showed that sensitivity analysis indicated that nitrogen bearing capacity was more sensitive to nutrients in straw, and no nutrient overload occurred. Phosphorus bearing capacity was more sensitive to nutrients in manure, and phosphorus nutrient overload occurred in Daqing, Suihua, Mudanjiang, Qitaihe, Qiqihar, Harbin, and Yichun. Uncertainty analysis showed that the probability of phosphorus nutrient overload was less than 40% in Harbin, Qiqihar, Yichun, and Qitaihe, while the probability of phosphorus nutrient overload was 91%, 63% and 65% in Daqing, Suihua and Mudanjiang, respectively. In other cities, the probability of nutrient overload was 0. According to the uncertainty analysis, the probability of phosphorus nutrient overload is low in most areas, but there are high risks of overload in Daqing, Suihua and Mudanjiang City. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring of phosphorus emission, increase anti-pollution measures, and rationally adjust the scale of aquaculture.

Key words： livestock manure straw land bearing capacity excretion coefficient uncertainty analysis sensitivity analysis

收稿日期: 2023-03-15

PACS:

X713

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(21976017)

通讯作者: 赵岩,副教授,yanzhao@bnu.edu.cn E-mail: yanzhao@bnu.edu.cn

作者简介: 王圣伟(1997-),男,山东烟台人,北京师范大学硕士研究生,主要从事生物质资源化技术与固体废物管理研究.发表论文4篇.202221180078@mail.bnu.edu.cn.

引用本文:

王圣伟, 李翔, 李艳霞, 赵岩. 基于不确定性分析的畜禽粪污土地承载力评估——以排泄系数不确定性为例[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(S1): 186-196. WANG Sheng-wei, LI Xiang, LI Yan-xia, ZHAO Yan. Assessment of land bearing capacity of livestock manure based on uncertainty analysis—Taking the uncertainty of excretion coefficients as an example. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(S1): 186-196.

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