碳中和情景下我国CO<sub>2</sub>与O<sub>3</sub>前体物协同减排特征分析

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摘要基于中国未来排放动态评估模型(DPEC)预估的排放清单,分析了碳中和情景下二氧化碳(CO₂)、挥发性有机物(VOCs)和氮氧化物(NO_x)的人为排放时空变化特征,并与共享社会经济路径(SSP)中两个SSP1情景进行对比.研究结果表明,在DPEC碳中和情景中,我国CO₂人为排放在2030年达峰,2060年相比2020年将减排91%,减排量介于两个SSP情景(SSP1-1.9和SSP1-2.6)预估值之间.VOCs和NO_x的人为排放量自2020年起呈持续下降趋势,直至2060年分别减排65%和88%.相较两个SSP情景,DPEC中VOCs减排偏弱而NO_x减排偏强.不同行业源对减排的贡献及其空间分布也存在差异,CO₂减排主要来自电力源和工业源,VOCs和NO_x交通源减排较明显,2060年工业源排放将成为CO₂,VOCs和NO_x的最主要来源.总体而言,DPEC碳中和情景更为贴近我国未来减排趋势,在相关行业按期达成减排目标的前提下可以体现协同减排特征.

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	金宇翔
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关键词 ：碳中和情景, 人为排放, DPEC, SSP

Abstract：The study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of anthropogenic emissions in China under a carbon-neutral scenario, with a focus on synergistic reductions in carbon dioxide (CO₂), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and nitrogen oxides (NO_x). Using the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), emissions trends were analyzed and compared with two Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6). The findings reveal that under the DPEC carbon-neutral scenario, CO₂ emissions will peak by 2030 and decrease by 91% by 2060 relative to 2020 levels. Emissions of VOCs and NO_x show continuous reductions since 2020, with declines of 65% and 88%, respectively, by 2060. Compared to the two SSP scenarios, the DPEC scenario shows a weaker reduction in VOCs but a stronger reduction in NO_x. Sectoral analysis highlights that CO₂ reductions primarily stem from the energy and industrial sectors, whereas the transportation sector drives notable decreases in VOCs and NO_x. By 2060, the industrial sector will remain the dominant source of emissions for CO₂, VOCs, and NO_x. The results suggest that the DPEC carbon-neutral scenario aligns closely with China's future emission reduction trends, demonstrating significant potential for synergistic emission reductions. Achieving these targets on schedule will require robust policy implementation and sectoral commitment, offering substantial improvements in air quality and environmental outcomes.

Key words： carbon-neutral scenario anthropogenic emissions DPEC SSP

收稿日期: 2024-10-10

PACS:

X511

基金资助:国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3701204);安徽省重点研究与开发计划项目(2022h11020008)

作者简介: 金宇翔(2001-),男,江苏苏州人,南京信息工程大学硕士研究生,研究方向为大气物理学与大气环境.202412030238@nuist.edu.cn.

引用本文:

金宇翔, 侯雪伟, 洪蕾, 赵天良, 周逸超. 碳中和情景下我国CO₂与O₃前体物协同减排特征分析[J]. 中国环境科学, 2025, 45(4): 2230-2239. JIN Yu-xiang, HOU Xue-wei, HONG Lei, ZHAO Tian-liang, ZHOU Yi-chao. Analysis on the characteristics of synergistic reduction of CO₂ and O₃ precursors emissions in China under carbon-neutral scenario. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2025, 45(4): 2230-2239.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2025/V45/I4/2230

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