黄河几字湾气溶胶对植被总初级生产力的影响

史建阳; 刘旻霞; 潘竞虎; 李宇; 管承轩

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中国环境科学 ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (6) : 3314-3324.

环境生态

黄河几字湾气溶胶对植被总初级生产力的影响

史建阳, 刘旻霞, 潘竞虎, 李宇, 管承轩

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The Impact of aerosols in Jizi Bay of the Yellow River on the Total Primary Productivity of Vegetation

SHI Jian-yang, LIU Min-xia, PAN Jing-hu, LI Yu, GUAN Cheng-xuan

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摘要

基于2006~2020年黄河几字湾多源遥感数据,利用标准化椭圆分析AOD-PAR-GPP的时空变化,随后通过结构方程模型和地理加权回归模型耦合构建GWR-SEM模型量化AOD对GPP的影响,并采用Sen趋势分析、MK显著性检验及灰色预测模型等方法探讨AOD与GPP未来变化趋势.结果表明:时间上,AOD、PAR和GPP呈协同上升趋势,其中AOD在2008、2020年到达最低值0.17和最高值0.46; GPP分别在2007年、2018年达到最低值266.4867.04gC/(m²·a)和最高值408.87gC/(m²·a),且三者季节差异明显,发现在植被生长季6月存在着GPP光饱和点.在空间上,AOD高值区主要分布在阿拉善盟;PAR分布与AOD相似,并与GPP呈负相关;GPP呈北低南高,其高值范围的扩大表现为延安贡献的增强.鄂尔多斯和榆林作为AOD主要污染源,在整体上由西向东逆时针扩散.GPP贡献地在榆林,具有西北向东南的变化趋势.锡林郭勒、大同及银川等地区GPP主要受 AOD、PAR与降水的影响,包头、朔州及中卫等地区GPP受PAR和降水的影响;通过模型AOD对GPP产生的标准化总效应影响为0.758,且GPP变化主要受气温的影响,其次是AOD和PAR及降水,在各间接路径中PAR起关键作用.趋势预测上,几字湾北部的AOD和以榆林为代表的东南部GPP有进一步加快的趋势;2021~2030年AOD上升趋势相对缓慢,而GPP上升趋势较快.

Abstract

Based on multi-source remote sensing data of the Jizi Bay of the Yellow River from 2006 to 2020, the temporal and spatial variations of AOD-PAR-GPP were analyzed using Pearson correlation coefficient and standardized ellipse analysis. Subsequently, a GWR-SEM model was constructed by coupling structural equation modeling and geographical weighted regression to quantify the impact of AOD on GPP. Methods such as Sen trend analysis, MK significance test, and grey prediction model were employed to explore the future trends of AOD and GPP. The results indicated that: (1) In terms of time, AOD, PAR, and GPP exhibited a synchronous upward trend, with AOD reaching its lowest value of 0.17 and highest value of 0.46 in 2008 and 2020, respectively. GPP reached its lowest value of 266.4867.04gC/(m²·a) and highest value of 408.87gC/(m²·a) in 2007 and 2018, respectively, with significant seasonal differences observed. It was found that there was a light saturation point for GPP in June during the vegetation growing season. (2) Spatially, high AOD values were mainly distributed in Alxa League; the distribution of PAR was similar to that of AOD and negatively correlated with GPP. GPP showed a pattern of decreasing from north to south, with the expansion of its high-value range reflecting an enhanced contribution from Yan’an. Ordos and Yulin served as the main sources of AOD pollution, diffusing overall from west to east in a counterclockwise direction. The contributing area for GPP was in Yulin, exhibiting a northwest to southeast trend. (3) GPP in areas such as Xilin Gol, Datong, and Yinchuan was mainly influenced by AOD, PAR, and precipitation, while GPP in areas like Baotou, Shuozhou, and Zhongwei was influenced by PAR and precipitation. The standardized total effect of AOD on GPP generated by the model was 0.758, with GPP variation primarily influenced by temperature, followed by AOD, PAR, and precipitation, with PAR playing a key role in various indirect pathways. (4) In terms of trend prediction, there was a further acceleration trend in AOD in the northern Jizi Bay and GPP in the southeastern part represented by Yulin. The upward trend in AOD from 2021 to 2030 was relatively slow, while the upward trend in GPP was faster.

导出引用

史建阳, 刘旻霞, 潘竞虎, 李宇, 管承轩. 黄河几字湾气溶胶对植被总初级生产力的影响[J]. 中国环境科学. 2024, 44(6): 3314-3324

SHI Jian-yang, LIU Min-xia, PAN Jing-hu, LI Yu, GUAN Cheng-xuan. The Impact of aerosols in Jizi Bay of the Yellow River on the Total Primary Productivity of Vegetation[J]. China Environmental Science. 2024, 44(6): 3314-3324

中图分类号： X51

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