长江经济带电力碳排放时空变化及影响因素——基于区域和产业视角

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摘要以长江经济带为实证区域，综合运用IPCC清单编制法，网络法和LMDI法，在核算2005~2020年长江经济带电力生产、传输和消费过程中碳排放量的基础上，基于区域和产业两个层面分析其时空分异特征，并探究地区电力生产和消费碳排放量变化的不同影响因素.结果表明，长江经济带电力生产碳排放量整体呈现不断上升但增长速度下降的态势，总量由6.8亿t增加到12.25亿t.年均增速由2005~2011年期间的7.61%下降到2012~2020年期间的1.28%.电力消费碳排放量的时空分布特征与生产视角下的相似，但省际间电力碳排放流动规模以及远距离的电力碳排放流动显著增加.其中上海，江苏和浙江为最主要的电力碳排放净转出地，2020年分别净转出1894.01万t、6120.03万和7020.84万t，安徽，湖北，四川，贵州和云南为最主要的净转入地，2020年分别净转入2723.85万t、2309.72万t、1075.72万t、3010.32万t和2218.69万t.下游地区的用电碳排放量主要来自资源加工工业，机械和电子制造业，轻纺工业，增长幅度较大的是机械和电子制造业，纺织业，服务业.中上游地区主要来自电力，热力生产和供应业，资源加工工业，除四川和云南外，其他地区上述产业的用电碳排放量均大幅增长.关于影响因素，发电规模是促使电力生产碳排放增长的最大因素，发电煤耗率和电力生产结构主要起抑制作用；经济发展水平，居民消费是推动地区用电碳排放量增长的主要因素，产业用电效率，用电碳排放强度，产业结构主要起负向驱动作用.

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关键词 ：电力行业, 碳排放, 电力传输, 时空变化, LMDI模型, 长江经济带

Abstract：The IPCC carbon inventory accounting method and network model were comprehensively used to quantify carbon emissions induced by power production, transmission, and consumption in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2005 to 2020, and its spatio-temporal variation was analyzed from the region and industry perspectives. Besides, the LMDI method was applied to quantify the contributions of the economic and technological factors to changes in regional production and consumption side electricity-related carbon emissions. Results showed that the carbon emissions from power generation in the Yangtze River Economic Belt grew continually but with a declining growth rate. Specifically, the total amount increased from 680million tons to 1.225billion tons, and the average annual growth rate decreased from 7.61% from 2005 to 2011 to 1.28% from 2012 to 2020. The spatio-temporal characteristics of electricity-related carbon emissions from the consumption side were similar to those from the production side, but the carbon emissions embodied in the inter-provincial power transmission had grown continually during the research period. Among them, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang had the largest net outflows of electricity-related carbon emissions, with net outflows of 18.94 million tons, 61.20 million tons and 70.21 million tons respectively in 2020. Anhui, Hubei, Sichuan, Guizhou, and Yunnan had the largest net inflows of electricity-related carbon emissions, with net inflows of 27.24 million tons, 23.10 million tons, 10.76 million tons, 30.10 million tons and 22.19 million tons respectively in 2020. The consumption side carbon emissions in the downstream areas mainly came from the resource processing industry, machinery and electronic manufacturing industry, and light textile industry. Machinery and electronics manufacturing, textile, and service industries had the highest growth rate of the consumption side carbon emissions. The consumption side carbon emissions in the midstream and upstream areas were mainly driven by the electric power, heat production and supply industry, and resource processing industry. In the midstream and upstream areas, except Sichuan and Yunnan, the carbon emissions induced by the above industries have increased substantially. Power generation scale was the biggest factor promoting the growth of carbon emissions from the production side. On the contrary, coal consumption rate of power generation and power generation mix were the factors that inhibit its growth. Economic development and household consumption were the main factors to promote the growth of carbon emissions from the consumption side, while industrial power efficiency, carbon emission intensity of power consumed and industrial structure played a negative driving role.

Key words： electric power industry carbon emission power transmission spatio-temporal variation LMDI model Yangtze River Economic Belt

收稿日期: 2022-07-13

PACS:	X322
	F426

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目（42130510，71904125）

通讯作者: 曾刚,教授,gzeng@re.ecnu.edu.cn E-mail: gzeng@re.ecnu.edu.cn

作者简介: 郭艺(1993-),男,陕西淳化人,华东师范大学博士研究生,主要从事生态经济与区域可持续发展研究.发表论文9篇.

引用本文:

郭艺, 张鹏飞, 葛力铭, 曾刚, 万媛媛. 长江经济带电力碳排放时空变化及影响因素——基于区域和产业视角[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(3): 1438-1448. GUO Yi, ZHANG Peng-fei, GE Li-ming, ZENG Gang, WAN Yuan-yuan. The spatio-temporal variation and influencing factors of electricity-related carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from the region and industry perspectives. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(3): 1438-1448.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2023/V43/I3/1438

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