Groundwater pollution risk analysis considering the uncertainty of boundary conditions
LI Jiu-hui1,2, LU Wen-xi1,2, XIN xin1,2, LUO Jian-nan1,2, CHANG Zhen-bo1,2
1. Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China; 2. College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China
Abstract：In order to analyze the influence of boundary conditions' uncertainty on the output results of groundwater contaminant transport numerical simulation model, the Monte Carlo method was used to illustrate an example, and the simulation results were analyzed in term of pollution risk prediction. To reduce the large amount of computational load generated by repeated calls of the simulation model while ensure the high accuracy,a boundary condition (the first type boundary condition-water head value) was used as a random variable to establish a Kriging surrogate model of the groundwater contaminant transport simulation model. The results showed that the uncertainty of boundary conditions had a great influence on the prediction results of groundwater contaminant transport numerical simulation model. The distribution of contaminant plume in the study area was significantly different from the ones that without considering the uncertainty of boundary conditions. Taking statistics and analysing on the Monte Carlo simulation results of groundwater contaminant transport numerical simulation can assess the reliability degree of the predicted pollutant concentration of observation wells 1, 2, 3, and also predicted the pollution risk of observation wells 1, 2, 3 in the in the study area.
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