Impact of China's carbon emission trading policy on the performance of urban carbon emission and its mechanism
ZHOU Di1, LIU Yi-chun2
1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangzhou 510006, China;
2. School of Finance, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangzhou 510006, China
Based on panel data on 273 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2016, the propensity score matching-difference in difference method (PSM-DID) was wsed to investigate the effect of carbon emission trading policy on urban carbon emission intensity and its mechanism. The study found that such policies significantly and continuously lead to the reduction of carbon intensity in pilot cities, and the effect became more significant in recent years. Consequently, through the mediation effect analysis, this paper found that adjustment on the industrial structure and energy saving methods effectively reduced the carbon intensity while the impact of scientific research remained unclear. Based on the finding, this paper suggested further nationwide promotion on carbon emission trading policy, optimization of industrial structure, increase in tertiary industry proportion, promotion on enterprise energy saving, and establishment of a green low-carbon consumption concept.
周迪, 刘奕淳. 中国碳交易试点政策对城市碳排放绩效的影响及机制[J]. 中国环境科学, 2020, 40(1): 453-464.
ZHOU Di, LIU Yi-chun. Impact of China's carbon emission trading policy on the performance of urban carbon emission and its mechanism. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(1): 453-464.
Pachauri R K, Allen M R, Barros V R, et al. Climate change 2014:Synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M]. Ipcc, 2014.
[2]
李宾,周俊,田银华,等.全球外部性视角下的碳排放与产业结构变迁[J]. 资源科学, 2014,36(12):2483-2490. Li B, Zhou J, Tian Y H. Carbon emissions and industrial structure from a global externality perspective[J]. Resources Science, 2014, 36(12):2483-2490.
[3]
彭文斌,路江林.环境规制与绿色创新政策:基于外部性的理论逻辑[J]. 社会科学, 2017,10:73-83. Peng W B, Lu J L. Environmental regulation and green innovation policy:theoretical logic based on externalities[J]. Social Science, 2017,10:73-83.
[4]
Porter M E. America's green strategy[J]. Scientific American, 1991,264(4):168.
[5]
Domazlicky B R, Weber W L. Does environmental protection lead to slower productivity growth in the chemical industry?[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics, 2004,28(3):301-324.
[6]
宋献中,刘浪,郭枫晚.企业碳减排措施选择及动因研究-以碳排放权交易试点A电力企业为例[J]. 财会月刊, 2019,1:141-150. Song X Z, Liu L, Guo F W. Research on the choice and motivation of enterprise carbon emission reduction measures[J]. Finance and Accounting Monthly, 2019,1:141-150.
[7]
Coase R H. The problem of social cost[M]//Classic papers in natural resource economics. Palgrave Macmillan, London, 1960:87-137.
[8]
Sewell W R D. JH Dales, Pollution, Property & Prices:An Essay in Policy-making and Economics. Toronto:University of Toronto Press, 1968, pp. vii, 111[J]. Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique, 1969,2(3):386-387.
[9]
王小军.美国排污权交易实践对我国的启示[J]. 科技进步与对策, 2008,25(5):142-145. Wang X J. What we can draw from practices of USA on the marketable pollution permits[J]. Science and Technology Progress and Policy, 2008,25(5):142-145.
[10]
Tietenberg T H, Tietenberg T. Emissions trading, an exercise in reforming pollution policy[M]. Resources for the Future, 1985.
[11]
Streimikiene D, Roos I. GHG emission trading implications on energy sector in Baltic States[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2009,13(4):854-862.
[12]
Borghesi S, Cainelli G, Mazzanti M. Linking emission trading to environmental innovation:evidence from the Italian manufacturing industry[J]. Research Policy, 2015,44(3):669-683.
[13]
Zhang Y J, Wei Y M. An overview of current research on EU ETS:Evidence from its operating mechanism and economic effect[J]. Applied Energy, 2010,87(6):1804-1814.
[14]
Cheng B, Dai H, Wang P, et al. Impacts of low-carbon power policy on carbon mitigation in Guangdong Province, China[J]. Energy Policy, 2016,88:515-527.
[15]
Zhang C, Wang Q, Shi D, et al. Scenario-based potential effects of carbon trading in China:An integrated approach[J]. Applied Energy, 2016,182:177-190.
[16]
Zhang W, Zhang N, Yu Y. Carbon mitigation effects and potential cost savings from carbon emissions trading in China's regional industry[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2019,141:1-11.
[17]
Dong F, Dai Y, Zhang S, et al. Can a carbon emission trading scheme generate the Porter effect? Evidence from pilot areas in China[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2019,653:565-577.
[18]
Zhou B, Zhang C, Song H, et al. How does emission trading reduce China's carbon intensity? An exploration using a decomposition and difference-in-differences approach[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2019,676:514-523.
[19]
王文军,傅崇辉,骆跃军,等.我国碳排放权交易机制试点地区的ETS管理效率评价[J]. 中国环境科学, 2014,34(6):1614-1621. Wand W J, Fu C H, Luo Y J, et al. Management efficiency assessment of seven Chinese pilots carbon emission trading systems[J]. China Environment Science, 2014,34(6):1614-1621.
[20]
张伟伟,祝国平,张佳睿.国际碳市场减排绩效经验研究[J]. 财经问题研究, 2014,12:35-40. Zhang W W, Zhu G P, Zhang J R. Empirical study on the performance of international carbon market emission reduction[J]. Research on Financial and Economic Issues, 2014,12:35-40.
[21]
黄志平.碳排放权交易有利于碳减排吗?——基于双重差分法的研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2018,32(9):32-36. Huang Z P. Does the carbon emission trading scheme promote carbon mitigation[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2018,32(9):32-36.
[22]
王勇,赵晗.中国碳交易市场启动对地区碳排放效率的影响[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2019,29(1):50-58. Wand Y, Zhao H. The impact of China's carbon trading market on regional carbon emission efficiency[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2019,29(1):50-58.
[23]
李薇,董艳艳,卢晗,等."十三五"规划碳减排目标下碳交易机制的博弈分析[J]. 中国环境科学, 2016,36(9):2857-2864. Li W, Dong Y Y, Lu H, et al. A game analysis on carbon trade under carbon mitigation targets during the 13th Five-Year plan period[J]. China Environment Science, 2016,36(9):2857-2864.
[24]
彭慧丰.碳排放权交易对企业碳排放影响机制研究[D]. 长沙:湖南大学, 2017. Peng H F. The research on the effect and mechanism of the carbon-emission trading on corporate carbon emission[D]. Changsha:Hunan University, 2017.
[25]
黄向岚,张训常,刘晔,等.我国碳交易政策实现环境红利了吗?[J]. 经济评论, 2018,214(6):86-99. Huang X L, Zhang X C, Liu Y. Does China's carbon emissions trading policy fulfill the environmental divided?[J]. Economic Review, 2018,214(6):86-99.
[26]
李广明,张维洁.中国碳交易下的工业碳排放与减排机制研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2017,27(10):141-148. Li G M, Zhang W J. Research on industrial carbon emissions and emissions reduction mechanism in China's ETS[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2017,27(10):141-148.
[27]
Heckman J J, Ichimura H, Todd P E. Matching as an econometric evaluation estimator:Evidence from evaluating a job training programme[J]. The Review of Economic Studies, 1997,64(4):605-654.
[28]
陈诗一.能源消耗、二氧化碳排放与中国工业的可持续发展[J]. 经济研究, 2009,44(4):41-55. Chen S Y. Energy consumption, CO2 emission and sustainable development in Chinese industry[J]. 2009,44(4):41-55.
[29]
周迪,吴泽文.中国工业碳减排潜力与路径研究[J]. 中国环境科学, 2019,39(3):1306-1314. Zhou D, Wu Z W. Potentialities and paths of Chinese industrial carbon emission reduction[J]. China Environment Science, 2019,39(3):1306-1314.
[30]
中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2018. National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China. China statistical yearbook[M]. Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2018.
[31]
鲁万波,仇婷婷,杜磊.中国不同经济增长阶段碳排放影响因素研究[J]. 经济研究, 2013,48(4):106-118. Lu W B, Qiu T T, Du L. A study on influence factors of carbon emissions under different economic growth stages in China[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2013,48(4):106-118.
[32]
BP. BP statistical review of world energy[R]. London:BP, 2018.
储盼.碳排放权交易对企业减排成本及决策影响分析[D]. 重庆:重庆大学, 2015. Chu P. Analyses of the impact of carbon emissions trading on corporate abatement costs and decisions[D]. Chongqing:Chongqing University, 2015.
[35]
牛鸿蕾.中国产业结构调整的碳排放效应研究[D]. 南京:南京航空航天大学, 2013. Niu H L. Research on carbon emission effect of China's industrial structure adjustment[D]. Nanjing:Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2013.
[36]
林峰,于文涛.对我国电源结构优化的政策探讨[J]. 北方经济, 2006,13:27-28. Lin F, Yu W T. Discussion on the policy of optimizing power supply structure in China[J]. Northern Economy, 2006,13:27-28.
[37]
李顺毅.低碳城市试点政策对电能消费强度的影响——基于合成控制法的分析[J]. 城市问题, 2018,276(7):38-47. Li S Y. The impact of low carbon city pilot policy on power consumption intensity——analysis based on synthetic control method[J]. Urban Problems, 2018,276(7):38-47.
[38]
陆文聪,李元龙.中国工业减排的驱动因素研究:基于LMDI的实证分析[J]. 统计与信息论坛, 2010,25(10):49-54. Lu W C, Li Y L. Research on driving factors of China's industrial emissions abatement:a empirical study based on a LMDI method[J]. Statistics & Information Forum, 2010,25(10):49-54.
[39]
张翠菊,张宗益.能源禀赋与技术进步对中国碳排放强度的空间效应[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2015,25(9):37-43. Zhang C J, Zhang Z Y. Spatial effects of energy resources and technology advance on China's carbon emission intensity[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2015,25(9):37-43.
[40]
温忠麟,张雷,侯杰泰.中介效应检验程序及其应用[J]. 心理学报, 2004,5:614-620. Wen Z L, Zhang L, Hou J T. Testing and application of the mediating effects[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2004,5:614-620.
[41]
韩峰,谢锐.生产性服务业集聚降低碳排放了吗?——对我国地级及以上城市面板数据的空间计量分析[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2017,34(3):40-58. Han F, Xie R. Does the agglomeration of producer services reduce carbon emissions?[J]. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, 2017,34(3):40-58.
[42]
中国电力年鉴编辑委员会.中国电力年鉴[M]. 北京:中国电力出版社, 2017. Editorial board of China electric power yearbook. China electric power yearbook[M]. Beijing:China Electric Power Press, 2017.
[43]
中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2013-2017. National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China. China statistical yearbook[M]. Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2013-2017.
[44]
中国国家统计局城市社会经济调查司.中国城市统计年鉴[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2013-2017. Department of Urban Socio-Economic Survey of the National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China. China's urban statistical yearbook[M]. Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2013-2017.
Bertrand M, Duflo E, Mullainathan S. How much should we trust differences-in-differences estimates?[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2004,119(1):249-275.
[47]
温忠麟,叶宝娟.中介效应分析:方法和模型发展[J]. 心理科学进展, 2014,22(5):731-745. Wen Z L, Ye B J. Analyses of mediating effects:the development of methods and models[J]. Advances in Psychological Science, 2014, 22(5):731-745.
[48]
MacKinnon D P, Krull J L, Lockwood C M. Equivalence of the mediation, confounding and suppression effect[J]. Prevention science, 2000,1(4):173-181.
[49]
王晓硕,宇超逸.空间集聚对中国工业污染排放强度的影响[J]. 中国环境科学, 2017,37(4):1562-1570. Wang X S, Yu C Y. Impact of spatial agglomeration on industrial pollution emissions intensity in China[J]. China Environment Science, 2017,37(4):1562-1570.
[50]
邵帅,张可,豆建民.经济集聚的节能减排效应:理论与中国经验[J]. 管理世界, 2019,35(1):36-60+226. Shao S, Zhang K, Dou J M. Effects of economic agglomeration on energy saving and emission reduction:theory and empirical evidence from China[J]. Management World, 2019,35(1):36-60+226.
[51]
Greening L A, Greene D L, Difiglio C. Energy efficiency and consumption-the rebound effect-a survey[J]. Energy policy, 2000,28(6/7):389-401.
[52]
Fouquet R, Pearson P J G. Seven centuries of energy services:The price and use of light in the United Kingdom (1300-2000)[J]. The energy journal, 2006,27(1):139-177.
[53]
Lin B, Liu X. Dilemma between economic development and energy conservation:Energy rebound effect in China[J]. Energy, 2012, 45(1):867-873.
[54]
邵帅,杨莉莉,黄涛.能源回弹效应的理论模型与中国经验[J]. 经济研究, 2013,2:96-109. Shao S, Yang L L, Huang T. Theoretical model and experience from China of energy rebound effect[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2013,2:96-109.