1. College of Environment Science and Engineering, Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Sustainable Development of Marine Fisheries, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Fishery Resources and Ecological Environment, Yellow Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China
Abstract：To identify the key impact factors and predict the future distribution of the spawning ground in the Bohai Sea, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method was used to analyze the relationship between the anchovy eggs' distribution and the environmental factors. Based on the GWR model of anchovy spawning ground distribution established in this study, the future anchovy spawning ground in the Bohai Sea were predicted by considering the sea surface temperature and salinity variation trend. The results showed that the sea surface temperature, silicate concentration, salinity and water depth average regression coefficients are 1.296、-1.133、-0.374 and 0.521, which are the key factors influencing the anchovy spawning ground distribution. Under future scenario of the sea surface temperature and salinity, the area of the anchovy spawning ground will shrink in the future, the maximum percentage of shrinking area is to 47 now, especially in the northeast of the Bohai Bay. The distribution of the spawning ground will also change with the appearing of the new aggregation of the spawning ground in the Liaodong Bay. The GWR method can be used to identify the spatial non-stationarity of the variables. The results from the GWR model of the anchovy spawning ground distribution could provide scientific bases for the comprehensive ecological management of the Bohai Sea.
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