未来10年保定市大气PM<sub>2.5</sub>的健康效益预测

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摘要分别设定保定市2020年、2025年及2030年PM_2.5浓度的不同目标情景，并考虑人口发展趋势，采用IER模型对各区县低、中、高目标情景下归因于PM_2.5污染的过早死亡人数进行评估.结果表明，以2017年大气PM_2.5浓度为基线，按照高中低3种预测情景，在2020年、2025年和2030年分别能避免的过早死亡人数高达1582~3840人、5244~7902人和12602~23558人，主要分布在市中心（莲池区、竞秀区和清苑区）及其东南区域.随着老龄化问题越来越严重，环境质量改善获得的健康收益愈加突出，心血管系统疾病（中风和缺血性心脏病）的归因死亡人数多于呼吸系统疾病（肺癌、慢阻肺疾病以及急性下呼吸道感染）.当PM_2.5浓度高于20μg/m³时，中风的归因死亡人数最高；当PM_2.5浓度小于10μg/m³时，缺血性心脏病的归因死亡人数最高.建议保定市在制定PM_2.5污染防控政策时重点关注人群密集的市区及东南方向地区，并考虑大气污染不同阶段导致的过早死亡疾病类型进行针对性的宣教和防控.

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关键词 ：细颗粒物, 大气污染控制, 过早死亡, 保定, 预测

Abstract：Different target scenarios of atmospheric PM_2.5 concentrations in 2020, 2025 and 2030 were set in Baoding, and IER model was applied to assess premature deaths under low, medium and high target scenario for each district and county, taking into account population development trend. Results showed that premature deaths that could be avoided was as high as 1582 to 3840, 5244 to 7902, and 12602 to 23558 in 2020, 2025 and 2030, respectively, which were mainly distributed in downtown (Lianchi District, Jingxiu District and Qingyuan District) and the southeast region, taking PM_2.5 concentration in 2017 as the baseline and following the three target scenarios. As the problem of aging becomes more serious, the health benefits from improved environmental quality become more prominent, cardiovascular disease (stroke and ischemic heart disease) account for more deaths than respiratory disease (lung cancer, copd, and acute lower respiratory infections). The number of deaths attributable to stroke was highest when PM_2.5 concentration was higher than 20μg/m³. The number of deaths attributable to ischemic heart disease was highest when PM_2.5 concentration was lower than 10μg/m³. It is suggested that Baoding should pay more attention to densely populated downtown and southeast region when establishing PM_2.5 pollution prevention and control policies, and take into account the types of premature death caused by air pollution at different stages to carry out targeted education and prevention and control.

Key words： PM_2.5 air pollution control premature death Baoding forecast

收稿日期: 2020-04-23

PACS:

X513

基金资助:国家重点研发计划大气污染成因与控制技术研究

通讯作者: 韦正峥,副研究员,wei.zhengzheng@prcee.org E-mail: wei.zhengzheng@prcee.org

作者简介: 郭云(1993-),女,浙江嘉兴人,硕士,主要从事环境与健康政策研究及风险评估工作.

引用本文:

郭云, 李瑞娟, 黄炳昭, 蒋玉丹, 韦正峥. 未来10年保定市大气PM_2.5的健康效益预测[J]. 中国环境科学, 2020, 40(12): 5459-5467. GUO Yun, LI Rui-juan, HUANG Bing-zhao, JIANG Yu-dan, WEI Zheng-zheng. Analysis of health effects under the control of PM_2.5 pollution in Baoding. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(12): 5459-5467.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2020/V40/I12/5459

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