Analysis of health effects under the control of PM2.5 pollution in Baoding
GUO Yun1, LI Rui-juan2, HUANG Bing-zhao1, JIANG Yu-dan1, WEI Zheng-zheng1
1. Policy Research Center for Environment and Economy, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Beijing 100029, China; 2. School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
Abstract:Different target scenarios of atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations in 2020, 2025 and 2030 were set in Baoding, and IER model was applied to assess premature deaths under low, medium and high target scenario for each district and county, taking into account population development trend. Results showed that premature deaths that could be avoided was as high as 1582 to 3840, 5244 to 7902, and 12602 to 23558 in 2020, 2025 and 2030, respectively, which were mainly distributed in downtown (Lianchi District, Jingxiu District and Qingyuan District) and the southeast region, taking PM2.5 concentration in 2017 as the baseline and following the three target scenarios. As the problem of aging becomes more serious, the health benefits from improved environmental quality become more prominent, cardiovascular disease (stroke and ischemic heart disease) account for more deaths than respiratory disease (lung cancer, copd, and acute lower respiratory infections). The number of deaths attributable to stroke was highest when PM2.5 concentration was higher than 20μg/m3. The number of deaths attributable to ischemic heart disease was highest when PM2.5 concentration was lower than 10μg/m3. It is suggested that Baoding should pay more attention to densely populated downtown and southeast region when establishing PM2.5 pollution prevention and control policies, and take into account the types of premature death caused by air pollution at different stages to carry out targeted education and prevention and control.
郭云, 李瑞娟, 黄炳昭, 蒋玉丹, 韦正峥. 未来10年保定市大气PM2.5的健康效益预测[J]. 中国环境科学, 2020, 40(12): 5459-5467.
GUO Yun, LI Rui-juan, HUANG Bing-zhao, JIANG Yu-dan, WEI Zheng-zheng. Analysis of health effects under the control of PM2.5 pollution in Baoding. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(12): 5459-5467.
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