基于灰色系统理论的济南市建筑废物产量预测

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摘要首先以建筑面积核算法对济南市2000~2017年建筑废物产量进行了估算，然后以估算值作为原始数据，建立了灰色GM（1，1）预测模型.最后对未来5a济南市建筑废物产量进行了预测.经验证，模型精度等级达到优秀级.结果表明，灰色GM（1，1）预测模型可以准确地预测济南市建筑废物的年产量，预测表明济南市建筑废物平均产量将从2018年的860万t，增加到2022年的1000万t.

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	袁剑
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	陈明

关键词 ：建筑废物, 固体废物, GM(1, 1).模型, 预测, 济南, “无废城市”

Abstract：The construction waste residue generation in Jinan City, China from 2000 to 2017 was firstly assessed based on the method of building area estimation, GM (1,1) model was then created with the estimated value as the original data. Finally, we applied our model to predict the output of construction waste generation in Jinan in the next five years. Validation results showed the accuracy of the model was excellent. The results indicated that the GM (1,1) model could accurately forecast the annual output of the construction waste residue in Jinan, the projected waste would increase to 10 million tons per year in 2022 from 8.6 million tons per year in 2018.

Key words： construction waste residue solid waste GM (1,1) model forecast Jinan zero-waste city

收稿日期: 2020-01-19

PACS:	X705
	X32

基金资助:国家重点研发计划（2018YFC1900101，2019YFC1908504）

通讯作者: 曾现来,副研究员,xlzeng@tsinghua.edu.cn E-mail: xlzeng@tsinghua.edu.cn

作者简介: 袁剑(1980-),男,山东济南人,高级工程师,硕士,主要从事建筑废物综合式处理处置研究和建筑成本管理研究.发表论文10余篇.

引用本文:

袁剑, 曾现来, 陈明. 基于灰色系统理论的济南市建筑废物产量预测[J]. 中国环境科学, 2020, 40(9): 3894-3902. YUAN Jian, ZENG Xian-lai, CHEN ming. Estimating the construction waste generation in Jinan using the grey system theory. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(9): 3894-3902.

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