Scenario analysis of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Chinese aluminum life cycle and emissions reduction measures
LU Hao-jie1,2,3, WANG Wan-jun1,2,3, DAI Min4, CHEN Wei-qiang1,2,3, SHI Lei5
1. Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Xiamen 361021, China; 2. Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021, China; 3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 4. Fudan Tyndall Center, Department of Environmental Science & Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China; 5. Ministry of Environmental Protection Key Laboratory on Eco-industry, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Abstract:Exploring the energy conservation and emission reduction pathways of aluminum industry with high energy consumption and emissions intensity will help China to meet the greenhouse gas emission reduction commitment under the Paris Agreement. By applying the material flow analysis (MFA) and life cycle assessment (LCA), this study sets 15 scenarios based on stock, technology, and energy structure to quantify the energy consumption and carbon emissions of Chinese aluminum industry during 1990~2100. This study also explores the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction in different pathways. Chinese aluminum stock will peak during 2040~2050 (455~733 million tons);the primary aluminum production will peak before 2030 (27~41 million tons); the secondary aluminum production will peak during 2050~2060(23~48 million tons), and will exceed the primary aluminum production during 2035~2040. The aluminum industry can achieve the target that energy consumption and carbon emissions should reach the peak by 2030, but only in the scenario which has lowest stock level, the most advanced technology and the optimal energy structure , can China achieve the emission reduction goal. Improving technology is the optimal measure of energy conservation and emission reduction (>45%). To complete the low-carbon transformation of aluminum industry, the main task is to improve technology level, especially improve the recycling rate of aluminum scrap and the proportion of secondary aluminum.
卢浩洁, 王婉君, 代敏, 陈伟强, 石磊. 中国铝生命周期能耗与碳排放的情景分析及减排对策[J]. 中国环境科学, 2021, 41(1): 451-462.
LU Hao-jie, WANG Wan-jun, DAI Min, CHEN Wei-qiang, SHI Lei. Scenario analysis of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Chinese aluminum life cycle and emissions reduction measures. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(1): 451-462.
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