Effect of nitrogen to phosphorus ratio on parameter sensitivity of lake eutrophication model
WANG Yu-lin1, WANG Liang2, HUA Zu-lin3, CHEN Dan1, CHENG Hao-miao1, LI Jia1, CHENG Ji-lin2, LIU Fang4
1. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225127, China; 2. College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China; 3. Key Laboratory of Integrated Regulation and Resource Development on Shallow Lake of Ministry of Education, College of Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 4. Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau of Jiangsu Province Yangzhou Bureau, Yangzhou 225002, China
Abstract:The Morris method was used to study the sensitivity parameter of cyanobacteria, dissolved organic carbon, nutrients and dissolved oxygen in Chaohu Lake eutrophication model under different nitrogen to phosphorus ratios during the cyanobacteria blooms. As results shown, sensitivity parameters of cyanobacteria were significance different with the ratio of nitrogen to phosphorus. In the case of nitrogen deficiency, cyanobacteria were more sensitive to the parameters of the nitrogen conversion process, and the converse was true in the case of phosphorus deficiency. Under different ratios of nitrogen to phosphorus, non-biological variables such as dissolved organic carbon, nutrients, and dissolved oxygen were more sensitive to the parameters directly related to their own transformation process. Parameters related to the metabolism of cyanobacteria had a greater influence on all variables than that of the growth process. In addition, there was a significant positive correlation between the sensitivity of the parameters that were tested and the strength of the interaction. This was especially true in the case of extreme nitrogen or phosphorus deficiency. These results would be helpful for understanding lake eutrophication and improve the simulation effect and accuracy of eutrophication models.
王玉琳, 汪靓, 华祖林, 陈丹, 程浩淼, 李嘉, 程吉林, 刘芳. 氮磷比对湖泊富营养化模型参数敏感性的影响[J]. 中国环境科学, 2021, 41(6): 2893-2901.
WANG Yu-lin, WANG Liang, HUA Zu-lin, CHEN Dan, CHENG Hao-miao, LI Jia, CHENG Ji-lin, LIU Fang. Effect of nitrogen to phosphorus ratio on parameter sensitivity of lake eutrophication model. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(6): 2893-2901.
金相灿.湖泊富营养化控制和管理技术[M]. 北京:化学工业出版社, 2001:2-7. Jin X C. Lake eutrophication control and management technology[M]. Beijing:Chemical Industry Press, 2001:2-7.
[2]
秦伯强,高光,朱广伟,等.湖泊富营养化及其生态系统响应[J]. 科学通报, 2013,58(10):855-864. Qin B Q, Gao G, Zhu G W, et al. Lake eutrophication and its ecosystem response[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2013,58(10):855-864.
[3]
成小英,李世杰.长江中下游典型湖泊富营养化演变过程及其特征分析[J]. 科学通报, 2006,51(7):848-855. Cheng X Y, Li S J. Eutrophication evolution process and its characteristics of typical lakes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2006,51(7):848-855.
[4]
陈小锋,揣小明,杨柳燕.中国典型湖区湖泊富营养化现状、历史演变趋势及成因分析[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2014,30(4):438-443. Chen X F, Chuai X M, Yang L Y. Status quo, historical evolution and causes of eutrophication in lakes in typical lake regions of China[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2014,30(4):438-443.
[5]
Ji Z G. Hydrodynamics and water quality:modeling rivers, lakes, and estuaries[M]. New York:Wiley, 2017:161-376.
[6]
Chen X J. Dynamic coupling of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model with a laterally averaged, two-dimensional hydrodynamic model[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2007,112(C7):623-642.
[7]
Wang Y L, Cheng H M, Wang L, et al. A combination method for multicriteria uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation:a case study of Chaohu Lake in Eastern China[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2020,27:20934-20949.
[8]
Wang Y L, Hua Z L, Wang L. Parameter estimation of water quality models using an improved multi-objective particle swarm optimization[J]. Water, 2018,10(1):32.
[9]
Sarrazin F, Pianosi F, Wagener T. Global sensitivity analysis of environmental models:convergence and validation[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2016,79:135-152.
[10]
Yi X, Zou R, Guo H C. Global sensitivity analysis of a three-dimensional nutrients-algae dynamic model for a large shallow lake[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2016,327:74-84.
[11]
Wang Y L, Hua Z L, Wang L. Sensitivity analysis of the Chaohu Lake eutrophication model with new index based on Morris method[J]. Water Science and Technology:Water Supply, 2018,18(4):1375-1387.
[12]
Zheng W, Shi H H, Fang G H, et al. Global sensitivity analysis of a marine ecosystem dynamic model of the Sanggou Bay[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2012,247(4):83-94.
[13]
Li Y P, Tang C Y, Zhu J T, et al. Parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes for a large shallow freshwater lake[J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2015,60(6):1078-1095.
[14]
Cariboni J, Gatelli D, Liska R, et al. The role of sensitivity analysis in ecological modelling[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2007,203(1/2):167-182.
[15]
Pianosi F, Beven K, Freer J, et al. Sensitivity analysis of environmental models:A systematic review with practical workflow[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2016,79:214-232.
[16]
宋晓猛,张建云,占车生,等.水文模型参数敏感性分析方法评述[J]. 水利水电科技进展, 2015,35(6):105-112. Song X M, Zhang J Y, Zhan C S, et al. Review of methods of parameter sensitivity analysis in hydrologic modeling[J]. Advances in Science and Technology ofWater Resources, 2015,35(6):105-112.
[17]
Saltelli A, Tarantola S, Chan P S. A quantitative model-independent method for global sensitivity analysis of model output[J]. Technometrics, 1999,41(1):39-56.
[18]
Sobol I M. Sensitivity estimates for nonlinear mathematical models[J]. Mathematical Modeling & Computational Experiment, 1993,1(4):407-414.
[19]
Morris M D. Factorial sampling plans for preliminary computational experiments[J]. Technometrics, 1991,33(2):161-174.
[20]
Campolongo F, Cariboni J, Saltelli A. An effective screening design for sensitivity analysis of large models[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2007,22(10):1509-1518.
[21]
Pastres R, chan K, Dejak C. Global sensitivity analysis of a shallow-water 3D eutrophication model[J]. Computer Physics Communication, 1999,117:62-74.
[22]
Jiang L, Li Y, Zhao X, et al. Parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of water quality model in Lake Taihu, China[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2018,375:1-12.
[23]
王玉琳.巢湖EFDC富营养化模型参数敏感性及优化确定研究[D]. 南京:河海大学, 2018. Wang Y L. Research on parameters sensitivity and optimization determination of Chaohu Lake EFDC eutrophication model[D]. Nanjing:Hohai University, 2018.
[24]
Ciric C, Ciffroy P, Charles S. Use of sensitivity analysis to identify influential and non-influential parameters within an aquatic ecosystem model[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2012,246:119-130.
[25]
Salacinska K, El Serafy G Y, Los F J, et al. Sensitivity analysis of the two dimensional application of the Generic Ecological Model (GEM) to algal bloom prediction in the North Sea[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2010,221(2):178-190.
[26]
伊璇,郭怀成.三维水动力水质模型不确定性研究[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2017:110-125. Yi X, Guo H C. Research of uncertainty in three-dimensional hydrodynamics and water quality moedel[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2017:110-125.
[27]
Tetra Tech Inc. The environmental fluid dynamics Code Theory and computation, Volum 3:water quality module[R]. Fairfax, VA:Dynamic Solutions International, 2007.说明:这是公司的报告,没有具体作者
[28]
Wang P, Lai G Y, Li L. Predicting the hydrological impacts of the Poyang Lake project using an EFDC model[J]. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 2015,20(12):05015009.
[29]
Qi H D, Lu J Z, Chen X L, et al. Water age prediction and its potential impacts on water quality using a hydrodynamic model for Poyang Lake, China[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2016,23(13):13327-13341.
[30]
Gong R, Xu L G, Wang D G, et al. Water quality modeling for a typical urban lake based on the EFDC model[J]. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 2016,21(5):643-655.
[31]
Arifin R R, James S C, Pitts DAD, et al. Simulating the thermal behavior in Lake Ontario using EFDC[J]. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2016,42(3):511-523.
[32]
Zhou J T, Falconer R A, Lin B L. Refinements to the EFDC model for predicting the hydro-environmental impacts of a barrage across the Severn Estuary[J]. Renewable Energy, 2014,62:490-505.
[33]
李一平,唐春燕,余钟波,等.大型浅水湖泊水动力模型不确定性和敏感性分析[J]. 水科学进展, 2012,23(2):271-277. Li Y P, Tang C Y, Yu Z B, et al. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of large shallow lake hydrodynamic models[J]. Advances In Water Science, 2012,23(2):271-277.
[34]
Huang J C, Zhang Y J, Huang Q, et al. When and where to reduce nutrient for controlling harmful algal blooms in large eutrophic lake Chaohu, China?[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2018,89:808-817.
[35]
华祖林,刘晓东,褚克坚,等.基于边界拟合下的水流与污染物质输运数值模拟[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2013:185-200. Hua Z L, Liu X D, Chu K J, et al. Numerical simulation of water flow and pollutant transport based on boundary fitting[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2013:185-200.
[36]
陈异晖.基于EFDC模型的滇池水质模拟[J]. 云南环境科学, 2005,24(4):28-30. Chen Y H. Water quality smiulation of Dianchi Lake based on EFDC model[J]. Yunnan Environmental Science, 2005,24(4):28-30.
[37]
杨澄宇,代超,伊璇,等.基于正交设计及EFDC模型的湖泊流域总量控制——以滇池流域为例[J]. 中国环境科学, 2016,36(12):3696-3702. Yang C Y, Dai C, Yi X, et al. Total emission control of water pollutant for the lake basin based on orthogonal experimental design and EFDC model:A case study of Dianchi Basin[J]. China Environmental Science, 2016,36(12):3696-3702.
[38]
Jorgensen S E. Fundamentals of ecological modelling:applications in environmental management and research[M]. New York:Elsevier, 2011:175-225.
[39]
Schwarzenbach R P, Gschwend P M, Imboden D M. Environmental origanic chemistry[M]. New York, USA:Wiley, 2002:945-1004.
[40]
Xu F L, Jørgensen S E, Tao S, et al. Modeling the effects of ecological engineering on ecosystem health of a shallow eutrophic Chinese lake (Lake Chao)[J]. Ecological Modelling, 1999,117(2/3):239-260.
[41]
张质明,王晓燕,李明涛.基于全局敏感性分析方法的WASP模型不确定性分析[J]. 中国环境科学, 2014,34(5):1336-1346. Zhang Z M, Wang X Y, Li M T. Uncertainty analysis of WASP based on global sensitivity analysis method[J]. China Environmental Science, 2014,34(5):1336-1346.
[42]
R Core Team. A language and environment for statistical computing[R]. Vienna, Auatria, 2017.
[43]
李小平.湖泊学[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2013:132-135. Li X P. Limnology[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2013:132-135.
赵焕,朱利,吴传庆,等.基于天地协同的巢湖水华分布特征[J]. 中国环境科学, 2018,38(6):2297-2303. Zhao H, Zhu L, Wu C Q, et al. Distribution characteristics analysis of algal bloom in Chaohu Lake based on the sky~earth collaborative method[J]. China Environmental Science, 2018,38(6):2297-2303.