基于产业结构的区域水环境承载力优化方法与例证

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摘要以人口数量和地区生产总值最大化为优化目标,以水资源可利用量、水环境容量和经济社会发展为约束,构建了包括产业结构、种植业结构和养殖业结构等要素的区域水环境承载力优化模型,为以种植业与养殖业为主要污染源地区的水环境承载力调控提供方法,丰富水环境承载力调控的方法体系.以承德市为例进行实证研究,结果表明,(1)在经济发展调控与污染控制不同情景方案下,研究区可承载的人口与产业规模可分别提升2.6%~29.5%和18.5%~31.8%,表明产业优化和污染控制水平对区域水环境承载力具有重要影响,研究区尚有人口和经济增长空间;(2)控制经济社会发展速度,特别是优化农业种植结构、减少畜禽养殖规模是提高研究区水环境承载力的关键,农业种植结构和养殖结构是区域水环境承载力的敏感指标;(3)在水环境承载力约束下,污染控制指标如城镇生活污水处理率等存在下限阈值,表明研究区污染控制水平对水环境承载力具有短板效应.

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	王西琴
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关键词 ：水环境承载力, 产业结构, 非点源, 种植结构, 养殖结构, 目标优化

Abstract：This study took the maximization of population and economic output as the optimization goal, with the availability of water resources, water environment capacity, and the level of economic and social development as constraints. An optimization model of regional water environment carrying capacity was established, which considers macro industrial structure, planting structure, and breeding structure. It provides a method for regulating water environmental carrying capacity in the areas where planting and breeding are dominant, and enriches the method system. The case study results of Chengde City showed that:(1) under different social, economic and pollution mitigation scenarios, the population and economic output can be increased by 2.6%~29.5% and 18.5%~31.8% respectively, indicating that the level of industrial optimization and pollution control has an important impact on the regional water environment carrying capacity, and there is still much room for population and economic growth in the study area; (2) Controlling the speed of economic and social development, especially optimizing the agricultural planting structure and reducing the livestock and poultry breeding is key to improve the water environment carrying capacity; (3) Under the constraint of water environmental carrying capacity, there is a lower threshold for pollution control indicators such as urban sewage treatment rate, which indicates that the pollution control level in the study area has a short plate effect on water environmental carrying capacity. The optimization model for agricultural planting structure and breeding structure constructed in this paper can provide a novel approach for regulating water environment carrying capacity in areas featured with agricultural non-point source pollution.

Key words： water environmental carrying capacity industrial structure non-point source planting structure breeding structure objective optimization

收稿日期: 2022-10-08

PACS:

X321

基金资助:水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2018ZX07111001)

通讯作者: 高伟,副教授,gaowei21@gdut.edu.cn E-mail: gaowei21@gdut.edu.cn

作者简介: 王西琴(1965-),女,陕西西安人,教授,博士生导师,博士,主要从事资源经济与环境管理.发表论文80余篇.wxiqin@ruc.edu.cn.

引用本文:

王西琴, 贾宝珍, 姜智强, 高伟. 基于产业结构的区域水环境承载力优化方法与例证[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(5): 2652-2661. WANG Xi-qin, JIA Bao-zhen, JIANG Zhi-qiang, GAO Wei. Optimization and case study of water environmental carrying capacity based on industrial structure. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(5): 2652-2661.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2023/V43/I5/2652

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