Abstract：Based on the panel data of 278 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2020, this paper used the progressive difference-in-differences (DID) model to evaluate the impact and mechanism of the policy implementation of national independent innovation demonstration zones on the quantity and quality of regional carbon emissions. The heterogeneity of treatment effect was also discussed. The results showed that the national independent innovation demonstration zone had effectively driven the quantity reduction and quality improvement of carbon emissions (average values are -0.078 and 0.108). The national independent innovation demonstration zone can ultimately achieve effective carbon reduction by improving energy efficiency, driving green technology innovation, and promoting the rationalization of industrial structure. The national independent innovation demonstration zone had different policy effects in different regions at different stages of economic development. It had a more effective inhibitory effect on carbon emissions in the eastern and slower economic growth regions, and a more obvious effect on carbon productivity in the central and western regions and faster economic growth regions.
郑酌基, 韩先锋, 尹玉平. 区域创新政策对碳排放的影响——基于国家自主创新示范区的准自然实验[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(6): 3255-3264.
ZHENG Zhuo-ji, HAN Xian-feng, YIN Yu-ping. The impact of regional innovation policy on carbon emissions-Quasi-natural experiment based on national independent innovation demonstration zone. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(6): 3255-3264.
林伯强,刘希颖.中国城市化阶段的碳排放:影响因素和减排策略[J]. 经济研究, 2010,45(8):66-78. Lin B Q, Lin X Y. China's carbon dioxide emissions under the urbanization process:influence factors and abatement policies[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2010,45(8):66-78.
[2]
马晓君,陈瑞敏,董碧滢,等.中国工业碳排放的因素分解与脱钩效应[J]. 中国环境科学, 2019,39(8):3549-3557. Ma X J, Chen R M, Dong B Y, et al. Factor decomposition and decoupling effect of China's industrial carbon emissions[J]. China Environmental Science, 2019,39(8):3549-3557.
[3]
刘 璇,许恒周,张 苗.土地出让市场化的碳排放效应及传导机制——基于产业结构中介视角[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2022, 32(6):12-21. Liu X, Xu H Z, Zhang M. Impact and transmission mechanism of land leasing marketization on carbon emissions:based on the mediating effect of industrial structure[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2022,32(6):12-21.
[4]
王兆峰,汪 倩.长江经济带新型城镇化对旅游业碳排放的门槛效应研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2022,31(1):13-24. Wang Z F, Wang Q. Threshold effect of new urbanization on tourism carbon emission in yangtze river economic belt[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2022,31(1):13-24.
[5]
Ang B W. Is the energy intensity a less useful indicator than the carbon factor in the study of climate change?[J]. Energy Policy, 1999,27(15):943-946.
[6]
王 迪,聂 锐,王胜洲.中国二氧化碳排放区域不平等的测度与分解——基于人际公平的视角[J]. 科学学研究, 2012,30(11):1662-1670,1661. Wang D, Nie R, Wang S Z. The effects of export sophistication catch-up to the economic growth -a nonlinear estimation of factor intensive heterogeneous angle[J]. Studies in Science of Science, 2012,30(11):1662-1670,1661.
[7]
Kaya Y, Yokobori K. Environment, energy, and economy:strategies for sustainability[J]. United Nations University Press, 1997.
[8]
潘家华,张丽峰.我国碳生产率区域差异性研究[J]. 中国工业经济, 2011,(5):47-57. Pan J H, Zhang L F. Research on the regional variation of carbon productivity in China[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2011,(5):47-57.
[9]
Murshed M, Apergis N, Alam M S, et al. The impacts of renewable energy, financial inclusivity, globalization, economic growth, and urbanization on carbon productivity:evidence from net moderation and mediation effects of energy efficiency gains[J]. Renewable Energy. 2022,196:824-838.
[10]
程 钰,孙艺璇,鑫 静,等.全球科技创新对碳生产率的影响与对策研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2019,29(9):30-40. Chen Y, Sun Y X, Wang X J, et al. Research on the impact of global scientific and technological innovation on carbon productivity and countermeasures.[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2019,29(9):30-40.
[11]
梁向东,阳 柳.国家自主创新示范区创新驱动效率测度及政策评价[J]. 中国软科学, 2021,(7):131-142. Liang X D, Yang L. Research on innovation driven efficiency of national independent innovation demonstration zone[J]. China Soft Science, 2021,(7):131-142.
[12]
张秀峰,胡贝贝,张 莹.自主创新示范区政策试点对国家高新区研发创新绩效的影响研究[J]. 科研管理, 2020,41(11):25-34. Zhang X F, Hu B B, Zhang Y. Impact of national independent innovation demonstration zones (NIIDZ) pilot policies on the r&d performance of national high-tech zones[J]. Science Research Management, 2020,41(11):25-34.
[13]
Liu F S, Fan Y Q, Yang S Y, Environmental benefits of innovation policy:China's national independent innovation demonstration zone policy and haze control.[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2022,317:115465.
[14]
刘小勇,陈晓欣,丁焕峰,等.国家自主创新示范区与国家高新区高质量发展[J]. 经济问题, 2022,(10):98-107. Liu X Y, Chen X X, Ding H F, et al. National independent innovation demonstration zone and high-quality development of national high-tech zone[J]. On Economic Problems, 2022,(10):98-107.
[15]
马宗国,赵倩倩,蒋依晓.国家自主创新示范区绿色高质量发展评价[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2022,32(2):118-127. Ma Z G, Zhao Q Q, Jiang Y X. Evaluation of the green and high-quality development in China's national independent innovation demonstration zones[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2022,32(2):118-127.
[16]
Shao M, Xue M. Decomposition analysis of carbon emissions:considering China's energy efficiency[J]. Energy Reports. 2022,8:630-635.
[17]
解佳龙,李 雯,雷 殷.国家自主创新示范区科技人才政策文本计量研究——以京汉沪三大自创区为例(2009~2018年)[J]. 中国软科学, 2019,(4):88-97. Xie J L, Li W, Lei Y. Quantitative research on the s&t talent policy texts of the national innovation demonstration zone:a case of three national innovation demonstration zones in Beijing, Wuhan and Shanghai from 2009 to 2018[J]. China Soft Science, 2019,(4):88-97.
[18]
史 丹.中国能源利用效率的地区差异与节能潜力分析[J]. 中国工业经济, 2006,(10):49-58. Shi D. Regional differences in China's energy efficiency and conservation potentials[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2006,(10):49-58.
[19]
宋德勇,李 超,李项佑.新型基础设施建设是否促进了绿色技术创新的"量质齐升"——来自国家智慧城市试点的证据[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2021,31(11):155-164. Shong D Y, Li C, Li X Y. Does the construction of new infrastructure promote the quantity and quality of green technological innovation -evidence from the national smart city pilot[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2021,31(11):155-164.
[20]
干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J]. 经济研究, 2011,46(5):4-16,31. Gan C H, Zheng R G, Yu D F. An empirical study on the effects of industrial structure on economic growth and fluctuations in China[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2011,46(5):4-16,31.
[21]
赵 强,周月凌,方潜生,等.中部地区碳排放时空演变及其影响因素分析[J]. 环境科学学报, 2023,43(2):354-36. Zhao Q, Zhou Y L, Fang Q S, et al. Spatial-temporal evolution of carbon emissions and its influencing factors in China central region[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2023,43(2):354-36.
[22]
莫 姝,王 婷.金融发展对碳排放强度影响的空间效应研究[J]. 环境科学与技术, 2022,45(5):126-134. Mo S, Wang T. Research on the spatial effect of financial development on carbon emission intensity[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2022,45(5):126-134.
[23]
昌敦虎,缪 琪,原佳倩等."一带一路"沿线国家碳排放:外商直接投资与发展要素的共同影响分析[J]. 环境科学研究, 2022,35(7):1556-1563. Chang D H, Miu Q, Yuan J Q, et al. Carbon emissions by 'the belt and road' countries:impacts of foreign direct investment and development factors[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2022,35(7):1556-1563.
[24]
Song W, Han X. Heterogeneous two-sided effects of different types of environmental regulations on carbon productivity in China[J]. Science of The Total Environment, 2022,841:156769.
[25]
Xu C, Xu Y, Chen J, et al. Spatio-temporal efficiency of fiscal environmental expenditure in reducing CO2 emissions in China's cities[J]. Journal of Environmental Management. 2023,334:117479.
[26]
蒋灵多,陆 毅,张国峰.自由贸易试验区建设与中国出口行为[J]. 中国工业经济, 2021,(8):75-93. Jiang L D, Lu Y, Zhang G F. The Construction of the pilot free trade zone and Chinese exports[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2021,(8):75-93.
[27]
周 迪,刘奕淳.中国碳交易试点政策对城市碳排放绩效的影响及机制[J]. 中国环境科学, 2020,40(1):453-464. Zhou D, Liu Y C. Impact of China's carbon emission trading policy on the performance of urban carbon emission and its mechanism.[J]. China Environmental Science, 2020,40(1):453-464.
[28]
赵彦云,陆香怡,王 汶.低碳城市的CO2与PM2.5减排协同效应分析[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023,43(1):465-476. Zhao Y Y, Lu X Y, Wang W. Assessment for co-benefits of low-carbon city on CO2 and PM2.5 in China[J]. China Environmental Science:1-15, 2023,43(1):465-476.
[29]
Goodman-Bacon A. Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing[J]. Journal of Econometrics. 2021,225(2):254-277.
[30]
Sun L, Abraham S. Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects[J]. Journal of Econometrics. 2021,225(2):175-199.
[31]
Cengiz D, Dube A, Lindner A, et al. The effect of minimum wages on low-wage jobs[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2019,134(3):1405-1454.
[32]
Callaway B, Sant Anna P H C. Difference-in-differences with multiple time periods[J]. Journal of Econometrics. 2021,225(2):200-230.
[33]
江 艇.因果推断经验研究中的中介效应与调节效应[J]. 中国工业经济, 2022,(5):100-120. Jiang T. Mediating effects and moderating effects in causal inference[J]. China Industrial Economics, 2022,(5):100-120.
[34]
李少林,王齐齐."大气十条"政策的节能降碳效果评估与创新中介效应[J]. 环境科学, 2023,44(4):1985-1997. Li S L, Wang Q Q. Evaluation of energy saving and carbon reduction effect of air pollution prevention and control action plan and innovation intermediary effect[J]. Environmental Science, 2023,44(4):1985-1997.
[35]
高 原,申珍珍.绿色金融改革政策的碳减排效应[J]. 中国环境科学, 2022,42(10):4849-4859. Gao Y, Shen Z Z. The role of green finance reform policy in carbon reduction[J]. China Environmental Science, 2022,42(10):4849-4859.
[36]
周 迪,罗东权.绿色税收视角下产业结构变迁对中国碳排放的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2021,43(4):693-709. Zhou D, Luo D Q. Green taxation, industrial structure transformation, and carbon emissions reduction[J]. Resources Science, 2021,43(4):693-709.
[37]
郭俊杰,方 颖.绿色信贷、融资结构与企业环境投资[J]. 世界经济, 2022,45(8):57-80. Guo J J, Fang Y. Green credit, financing structure and corporate environmental investment[J]. The Journal of World Economy, 2022, 45(8):57-80.
