Abstract：Based on the method of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, it calculated the carbon emissions of energy consumption in Heilongjiang Province from 2005 to 2020. By using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition model and the STIRPAT model, it analyzed the relationship between energy carbon emissions and driving factors such as the economy and population in depth. Scenario simulations were conducted to explore reasonable paths for the future development of Heilongjiang Province. According to the results of the LMDI factor decomposition, the economic level factor had the greatest cumulative effect on energy carbon emissions. Through the STIRPAT model and scenario simulation analysis, the comprehensive scenario was identified as the optimal scenario among the four scenarios. Finally, based on the "dual carbon" goal and research results, it provided the suggestions for relevant regulatory strategies.
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