“双碳”背景下中国交通运输业碳排放驱动因素及脱钩效应

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摘要基于LMDI分解模型量化交通碳排放驱动因素的贡献情况,利用Tapio脱钩模型对行业碳排放与经济增长之间的关系进行分析,并定量分析各因素为达到脱钩状态所做的努力.结果表明:经济产出是导致交通碳排放增加的决定性因素,对碳排放的贡献率高达115.93%;产业结构对碳排放的抑制作用最显著.全国、东部、中部和西部地区的交通碳排放脱钩指数均处于下降态势,展现了从扩张负脱钩→弱脱钩→强脱钩的变化趋势.各地区交通碳排放驱动因素总体上均呈现“无脱钩努力→弱脱钩努力→强脱钩努力”的阶段性特点.产业结构对30个省份做出不同程度的脱钩努力,运输强度和人口规模成为阻碍绝大多数省份碳脱钩的关键因素.

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关键词 ：交通运输业, 碳排放, 驱动因素, Tapio模型, 脱钩努力

Abstract：Based on the LMDI decomposition model, the contribution of driving factors of transportation carbon emissions is quantified. The Tapio decoupling model is used to analyze the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, and the efforts made by each factor to achieve decoupling are quantitatively analyzed. The results show that: Economic output is the decisive factors leading to an increase on transportation carbon emissions, with a contribution rate of 115.93% to carbon emissions; Industrial structure has the most significant inhibiting effect on carbon emissions. The decoupling index of transportation carbon emissions in the national, eastern, central, and western regions is all in a downward trend, experiencing the decoupling trend of expansive negative decoupling → weak decoupling → strong decoupling. The driving factors of transportation carbon emissions in the four regions generally show the phased characteristic of "no decoupling effort → weak decoupling effort → strong decoupling effort". Industrial structure has made varying degrees of decoupling effort in 30provinces, with transportation intensity and population size becoming key factors hindering carbon decoupling in the vast majority of provinces.

Key words： transportation industry carbon emissions driving factors Tapio model decoupling effort

收稿日期: 2024-06-03

PACS:

X21

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(72304161;71874123);山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2022QG029)

通讯作者: 邵志国,副教授,shaozhiguo@qut.edu.cn E-mail: shaozhiguo@qut.edu.cn

作者简介: 邵志国(1988-),男,山东泰安人,副教授,博士,主要研究方向为低碳交通运输.发表论文20余篇.shaozhiguo@qut.edu.cn.

引用本文:

邵志国, 李可心, 李梦笛. “双碳”背景下中国交通运输业碳排放驱动因素及脱钩效应[J]. 中国环境科学, 2025, 45(1): 571-582. SHAO Zhi-guo, LI Ke-xin, LI Meng-di. Driving factors and decoupling effect of carbon emissions in China's transportation industry under the background of "dual carbon". CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2025, 45(1): 571-582.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2025/V45/I1/571

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