Study on the cost-benefit analysis of new energy vehicles for road freight transportation based on scenario simulation
LIU Wei1,2, WAN Yan-ming2, CHEN Si-yuan3, LIU Chang2, LIU Qi2, ZHANG Yan2, WANG Ge3
1. Guohua Energy Investment Co. Ltd., Beijing 100007, China; 2. Beijing Guohydro Zhonglian Hydrogen Energy Technology Research Institute Co. Ltd., Beijing 100007, China; 3. Economic and Management School, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Abstract：To achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, China's road freight sector needs to reduce emissions by developing electric and hydrogen vehicles to replace traditional fuel vehicles. In this paper, a life-cycle benefit analysis model of freight vehicles considering scenario heterogeneity was constructed to compare the life-cycle costs and revenues of oil, electric and hydrogen vehicles under different route scenarios, taking 25t tractors and 18t railcars as examples. The results showed that hydrogen vehicles were more suitable for long-distance heavy freight scenarios with high shipping prices and cold climates, while electric freight models were more suitable for low shipping prices, short-distance, light-load, and warm climate scenarios. Moreover, hydrogen vehicles can outperform electric vehicles in 25-ton heavy freight scenarios by 2030, which can be the key layout direction for hydrogen vehicles. In the short and medium term, policies such as hydrogen price subsidies and carbon taxes cannot achieve spontaneous substitution of new energy vehicles for fuel vehicles in the freight sector, and additional policy support will be needed.
刘玮, 万燕鸣, 陈思源, 刘畅, 刘琦, 张岩, 王歌. 基于场景模拟的公路货运新能源车成本效益分析研究[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(10): 5624-5632.
LIU Wei, WAN Yan-ming, CHEN Si-yuan, LIU Chang, LIU Qi, ZHANG Yan, WANG Ge. Study on the cost-benefit analysis of new energy vehicles for road freight transportation based on scenario simulation. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(10): 5624-5632.
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