中国近地面甲烷浓度时空分布特征及影响因素

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摘要利用GOSAT卫星近地面甲烷产品，分析2009年6月至2019年9月中国近地面甲烷浓度的空间分布和年际季节变化特征，并采用相关分析和随机森林模型探讨影响因素.结果表明：从空间分布来看，中国近地面甲烷浓度空间分布呈现东高西低的特点，空间差异明显；从年际变化来看，全国近地面CH₄浓度呈逐年增长趋势（8.71±0.96×10^-9/a），各地区年增长趋势在（7.01~11.76）×10^-9/a；从季节变化来看，中国近地面CH₄浓度夏秋两季浓度较高，春冬两季浓度较低；从影响因素来看，中国大部分地区的近地面CH₄浓度与气温、植被、夜间灯光、土壤湿度、降水呈正相关，与风速呈负相关.基于随机森林模型的影响因素重要性分析表明，对近地面CH₄浓度影响作用较大的因子为气温、植被和夜间灯光.

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	郭淏淏
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	张霄羽
	张红
	魏夜香
	侯鑫
	荀楠楠

关键词 ：近地面CH₄浓度, 时空分布, 趋势分析, 随机森林

Abstract：Utilizing methane data products monitored by the GOSAT satellite, this paper analyzed the spatial distribution and interannual seasonal variation of near-surface methane concentration across China from June 2009 to September 2019. The influencing factors were also explored using correlation analysis and a random forest model. The near-surface methane concentrations in China exhibited substantial spatial variations, with higher concentrations in the eastern regions and lower concentrations in the western regions, displaying. In terms of interannual trends, the methane concentration displayed an increasing pattern over the years at a rate of (8.71~0.96)×10^-9/a, and the annual growth rates varied between 7.01 and 11.76×10^-9/a across different regions. Seasonally, the methane concentrations tended to peak in summer and autumn, while they decreased in spring and winter. The near-surface methane concentrations were positively correlated with temperature, vegetation, nighttime lights, soil moisture, and precipitation, while negatively correlated with wind for most regions of China. The results of the random forest model indicated that temperature, vegetation, and nighttime lights were the primary factors influencing the near-surface methane concentrations.

Key words： near-surface CH₄ concentrations spatial and temporal variation trend analysis random forest

收稿日期: 2023-07-01

PACS:

X51

基金资助:国家自然科学基金-山西煤基低碳联合基金资助项目（U1910207）

通讯作者: 张红,教授,zhanghong@sxu.edu.cn E-mail: zhanghong@sxu.edu.cn

作者简介: 郭淏淏(1998-),男,山西长治人,山西大学硕士研究生,主要从事大气遥感研究.1105057482@qq.com.

引用本文:

郭淏淏, 朱炜歆, 张霄羽, 张红, 魏夜香, 侯鑫, 荀楠楠. 中国近地面甲烷浓度时空分布特征及影响因素[J]. 中国环境科学, 2024, 44(2): 593-601. GUO Hao-hao, ZHU Wei-xin, ZHANG Xiao-yu, ZHANG Hong, WEI Ye-xiang, HOU Xin, XUN Nan-nan. Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of near-surface methane concentration in China. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(2): 593-601.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V44/I2/593

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