基于综合减污降碳策略的成渝地区中长期空气质量改善模拟

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摘要设计成渝地区3种中长期综合减污降碳情景,包括基准政策情景、动态优化情景和最大潜力情景.应用区域大气污染物及碳排放清单和空气质量模型,模拟预测不同情景下的空气质量改善程度,并优选中长期空气质量改善目标约束下的综合减污降碳情景及路径.结果显示,成渝地区要实现中长期空气质量改善和碳减排目标,与2017基准年相比,2025年和2035年的SO₂、NO_x、PM_2.5、VOCs和CO₂减排比例分别为29%、32%、19%、24%、3%和35%、49%、28%、39%、12%.从综合减污降碳措施减排贡献来看,近中期阶段,末端治理(尤其是重点行业超低排放改造)仍是大气污染物减排的重要驱动力,大气污染物减排贡献占比为20%~55%.中长期阶段,由“双碳”目标驱动的能源、产业和交通结构调整措施对污染减排具有关键作用,大气污染物减排贡献占比为65%~87%.此外,重点排放源减排贡献具有较大差异,移动源和溶剂使用源对NO_x和VOCs减排贡献显著,固定燃烧源、工艺过程源和移动源对CO₂减排贡献均较为明显.

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	段林丰
	李振亮
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	曹云擎
	卢培利
	王锋文
	薛文博
	雷宇
	张晟

关键词 ：成渝地区, 减污降碳, 空气质量改善, 情景优化

Abstract：The three medium- to long-term comprehensive scenarios for pollution reduction and carbon mitigation in the Cheng-Yu district were formulated, encompassing the baseline policy, dynamic optimization, and maximum potential scenarios. Regional air pollution and carbon emission inventories, along with an air quality model, were applied to simulate the extent of air quality improvement under different scenarios. Subsequently, pollution reduction and carbon mitigation pathways were optimized, taking into account long-term air quality improvement goals. The results revealed that, to achieve medium- to long-term improvements in air quality and carbon emission reduction goals, compared to the baseline year of 2017, the reduction percentages of SO₂, NO_x, PM_2.5, VOCs, and CO₂ in the years 2025 and 2035 were 29%, 32%, 19%, 24%, 3%, and 35%, 49%, 28%, 39%, 12%, respectively. In the near to medium term, end-of-pipe treatments (especially ultra-low emission transformations in key industries) remain the primary driving force for reducing air pollutants, accounting for approximately 20%~55% of the overall reduction. In the medium to long term, measures related to energy, industry, and transportation structure adjustments driven by the “dual carbon” goals play a crucial role in pollution reduction, accounting for approximately 65%~87% of the overall reduction. Furthermore, significant differences are observed in the emission reduction contributions from key emission sources. Mobile sources and solvent use sources make significant contributions to the reduction of NO_x and VOCs, while stationary combustion sources, process sources, and mobile sources all have noticeable contributions to CO₂ emission reductions.

Key words： Cheng-Yu district the reduction of pollution and carbon emissions air quality improvement scenario optimization

收稿日期: 2023-07-04

PACS:

X51

基金资助:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0214005);重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项项目(CSTB2022TIAD-CUX0010);重庆市科研机构绩效激励引导专项项目(2023JXJL-YFX0085)

作者简介: 段林丰(1994-),男,河南济源人,重庆市生态环境研究院(中国环境科学研究院西南分院)博士研究生,主要从事能源环境、碳排放与大气污染协同防控研究.发表论文6篇.lfduan@foxmail.com.

引用本文:

段林丰, 李振亮, 蒲茜, 曹云擎, 卢培利, 王锋文, 薛文博, 雷宇, 张晟. 基于综合减污降碳策略的成渝地区中长期空气质量改善模拟[J]. 中国环境科学, 2024, 44(3): 1756-1768. DUAN Lin-feng, LI Zhen-liang, PU Xi, CAO Yun-qing, LU Pei-li, WANG Feng-wen, XUE Wen-bo, LEI Yu, ZHANG Sheng. Simulation of medium and long-term air quality improvement in the Cheng-Yu district based on comprehensive pollution reduction and carbon reduction strategies. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(3): 1756-1768.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V44/I3/1756

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