黄河流域城市群工业减污降碳影响因素与策略

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摘要选择呼包鄂榆、关中平原和中原三大城市群,对2000~2019年工业CO₂与局地大气污染物(LAP)排放的变化趋势进行分析,采用随机森林模型识别了工业减污降碳的关键影响因素及其非线性响应关系,因地制宜地提出减污降碳协同推进策略.结果表明,工业CO₂排放量呈上升趋势,关中平原与中原城市群排放强度下降,但仍有较强的减排潜力.LAP排放量与排放强度显著下降.工业CO₂排放与工业LAP排放趋势并不同步.关键影响因素中,规模以上工业增加值与万元工业增加值能耗为工业CO₂和LAP排放的共同关键影响因素;高技术产业占工业增加值比重、研究与试验发展(R&D)支出占GDP比重、工业二氧化硫去除率仅是LAP排放的关键影响因素,且在不同城市群存在差异性.部分指标呈现显著的非线性响应关系,工业规模效应, R&D投入配置扭曲,绿色技术效用的滞后性等是产生非线性特征的重要原因.为实现减污降碳协同推进,提出将降碳作为重点、加快产业结构优化升级、持续推进能耗双控、提高能源利用效率等建议.

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	康哲
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	刘伟

关键词 ：黄河流域, 城市群工业, 减污降碳, 影响因素, 协同推进

Abstract：The Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin, Guanzhong Plain, and Zhongyuan city clusters were selected for this analysis of emission trends based on the measurement of industrial CO₂ and local air pollutant (LAP) emissions from 2000 to 2019. Further, a random forest model was used to identify the key influencing factors of pollution abatement, carbon reduction, and the nonlinear response relation among them. Strategies for promoting pollution abatement and carbon reduction were proposed according to local conditions. The results showed that industrial CO₂ emissions were on the rise, whereas the emission intensity of the Guanzhong Plain and Zhongyuan city clusters were on the decline. Furthermore, the strong potential for a reduction in carbon emissions and LAP emissions and intensity remained. The trends in industrial CO₂ emissions and industrial LAP emissions were not simultaneous. Among the key influencing factors, industrial added value above designated size and energy consumption per 10000 yuan industrial added value were shared by both industrial CO₂ emissions and LAP emissions. The proportion of high-tech industries in industrial value added, the proportion of R&D expenditures in the GDP, and the industrial sulfur dioxide removal rate were the key influencing factors for LAP emissions, and differences existed across city clusters. Some indicators showed that a significant nonlinear response relation, the industrial scale effect, the distortion of R&D personnel and funds, and the lag of green technology utility were important factors in terms of nonlinear characteristics. To realize the synergistic promotion of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, carbon reduction could be prioritized, and the upgrading of industrial structure, along with the dual control of both energy consumption and intensity should be promoted. Finally, an improvement in energy efficiency is needed.

Key words： the Yellow River Basin urban agglomeration industry pollution and carbon reduction influencing factors synergistic promotion

收稿日期: 2022-08-16

PACS:

X321

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(72050001)

通讯作者: 李巍,教授,weili@bnu.edu.cn E-mail: weili@bnu.edu.cn

作者简介: 康哲(1996-),男,内蒙古鄂尔多斯人,北京师范大学硕士研究生,主要从事环境评价、规划与管理方向研究.kangzhe2515@163.com.

引用本文:

康哲, 李巍, 刘伟. 黄河流域城市群工业减污降碳影响因素与策略[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(4): 1946-1956. KANG Zhe, LI Wei, LIU Wei. Influencing factors and promoting measures of industrial pollution abatement and carbon reduction of the city clusters in the Yellow River basin. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(4): 1946-1956.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2023/V43/I4/1946

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