长江经济带土地利用模拟与扩绿增长协同发展

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摘要基于“SD-PLUS-InVEST”模型演化模拟结果,构建了扩绿与增长的协同评估模型,并开展了经济带及省级尺度评估,以“经济带—省市”协同视角解析、讨论了长江经济带实现生态扩绿与经济增长协同发展的未来特征与潜在困境,并提出了长江经济带协同发展的提质路径.结果显示,长江经济带土地利用类型以林地为主,2000~2030年碳储量整体呈下降趋势,生态保护情景的碳服务价值共减少了58.8亿元,高质量发展情景的碳服务价值降低了176.64亿元,高速发展情景的碳服务价值下降了383.03亿元.基于生态扩绿和经济增长的协同评估,高质量发展情景的协同发展水平最优.空间上,各省市扩绿增长协同发展水平存在较明显差异,根据差异特征分析为经济带协同扩绿增长提出了提质发展对策.

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	屈志光
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	汪金卓

关键词 ：土地利用, 陆地碳储, 演化模拟, 长江经济带, 协同发展

Abstract：This paper is based on simulation data from the "SD-PLUS-InVEST" coupling model, a collaborative evaluation method of regional green expansion and economic growth was developed and carried out at both economic belts and provincial scales. Then, the future simulation features, potential difficulties and new quality policy of realizing the targeted coordinated development were analyzed and discussed from perspective of "economic belt-province and city". The results showed that the land use type in the Yangtze River Economic belt was dominated by forest land, and the overall carbon storage quality indicated a downward trend from 2000 to 2030. The carbon service values under the scenarios of the ecological protection, the high-quality development and the high-speed development scenario decreased by 5.88, 17.664 and 38.303 billion yuan, respectively. Based on the synergy assessment of ecological expansion benefits and economic growth benefits, the level of synergistic development under the high-quality development scenario was optimal. Spatially, there were obvious differences in the level of coordinated development to some extent. Based on the comparative analysis of the mentioned difference characteristics, the targeted policy was proposed to improve quality in the regional synergistic development of green expansion and economic growth.

Key words： land use terrestrial carbon sequestration evolutionary simulation Yangtze River Economic Belt synergistic development

收稿日期: 2024-06-11

PACS:

X196

基金资助:国家社会科学基金资助项目(19CGL042);湖北省高等学校优秀中青年科技创新团队项目(T2021032);中南财经政法大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项(202351418, 2722024EJ024)

通讯作者: 李飞,教授,lifei@zuel.edu.cn E-mail: lifei@zuel.edu.cn

作者简介: 屈志光(1985-)，男，河南安阳人，副教授，博士，主要研究方向为资源环境经济与管理、工程技术管理，发表论文50余篇.quzhiguang@zuel.edu.cn.

引用本文:

屈志光, 杨伯元, 胡李丹, 李飞, 汪金卓. 长江经济带土地利用模拟与扩绿增长协同发展[J]. 中国环境科学, 2025, 45(1): 465-476. QU Zhi-guang, YANG Bo-yuan, HU Li-dan, Li Fei, WANG Jin-zhuo. Simulation of land use and synergistic development between promoting green expansion and economic growth in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2025, 45(1): 465-476.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2025/V45/I1/465

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