Abstract：The emission inventories of main air pollutants such as SO2, NO2 and PM10 in 2015 and 2020 were evaluated according to the census of pollution sources in 2007 and plans of main industrial developments for the years from 2005 to 2020 in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone (BGEZ). Based on this evaluation, the air quality of BGEZ in 2015 and 2020 was simulated by CALPUFF. The simulation resuets indicated as the following: relatively larger concentration increments of air pollutants in BGEZ in 2015 and 2020 would be mostly from economic development zones of relevant cities in the region; the concentration increase of pollutants in industrial zones would be directly correlated with establishment of large projects; change of pollutants concentration in most urban areas would be comparatively small; the increase of air pollution in urban areas would be related to the increase of municipal sources and the transport of industrial pollutants; change rate of most urban areas and industrial zones would decrease from 2015 to 2020.
