人为热对广州高温天气影响的数值模拟个例分析

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摘要基于广州市2009，2000和1990年工业、交通、生活能源统计数据，通过能源清单法估算出广州市对应年份的人为热排放量，再通过在WRF模式中引入2009，2000和1990年的下垫面数据和人为热排放方案，对2005，2012和2017年广州市的3次持续高温过程进行模拟，从而评估不同年代人为热排放水平对广州市极端高温天气的影响.结果表明，模拟的2m气温较为准确，能合理模拟出城市地区的热岛效应，但对极端高温的模拟略有偏低，而引入人为热有助于改善模拟结果.在case2012中，2009，2000和1990年3种人为热排放水平使广州城市下垫面的平均气温分别上升0.53，0.44和0.13℃，热岛强度增强0.43，0.38和0.13℃.3个模拟个例的结果均表明，日间的人为热排放比夜间大，但夜间气温及热岛强度的变化比日间要明显.

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	于玲玲
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	肖志祥
	王子谦
	麦健华

关键词 ：数值模拟, 人为热, 高温天气, 城市热岛

Abstract：In this study, the impacts of anthropogenic heat (AH) emission on the heat wave events in Guangzhou was investigated. First, an AH emission database was built with the energy inventory method in the year of 2009, 2000, and 1990 based on energy consumption statistics of industry, transportation and domestic energy in the corresponding year. Then, three heat wave events occurred in 2005, 2012 and 2017 in Guangzhou were simulated using weather research and forecasting model (WRF), under different land-use and AH emission conditions (from 2009, 2000 and 1990 respectively). The impacts of AH on heat waves in different decades can thus be estimated. The results show that WRF can well replicate the 2m temperature and urban heat island effects in Guangzhou during the heat wave events. The maximum temperature was originally underestimated without the input of AH. With AH, the estimate of the maximum temperature was improved. Specifically, in the case of simulating 2012 heat wave event, 2m temperature in the urban area increased by 0.53℃, 0.44℃ and 0.13℃ respectively when we superimposed AH conditions in 2009, 2000 and 1990. The intensity of urban heat island effects also increased by 0.43℃, 0.38℃ and 0.13℃ respectively. Moreover, simulation results from all the three heat wave cases indicated that the variations of 2m temperature and unban heat island intensity in night time were more substantial, although the AH emissions were stronger in the day time.

Key words： numerical simulation anthropogenic heat heat wave event urban heat island

收稿日期: 2020-01-21

PACS:

X16

基金资助:广州市科技计划项目（201704020194）；广东省科技计划项目（2017ZC0403）；广东省气象局科学技术研究项目（GRMC2019M27）

通讯作者: 潘蔚娟,高级工程师,wjpan@grmc.gov.cn E-mail: wjpan@grmc.gov.cn

作者简介: 于玲玲(1985-),女,山东平度人,工程师,硕士,主要从事中短期天气预报以及环境气象研究工作.发表论文1篇.

引用本文:

于玲玲, 潘蔚娟, 肖志祥, 王子谦, 麦健华. 人为热对广州高温天气影响的数值模拟个例分析[J]. 中国环境科学, 2020, 40(9): 3721-3730. YU Ling-ling, PAN Wei-juan, XIAO Zhi-xiang, WANG Zi-qian, MAI Jian-hua. Case studies of impacts of anthropogenic heat emissions on heat wave events in Guangzhou. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(9): 3721-3730.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2020/V40/I9/3721

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