不同经济发展路径下的能源需求与碳排放预测——基于河北省的分析

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摘要运用协整检验和马尔科夫链等方法研究不同经济增长路径下河北省2017~2035年的能源需求与结构、CO₂排放情况.结果显示：经济增长对能源需求具有明显的拉动作用.低速增长情景下，河北2035年的人均能源消费量与能源消费总量将分别达到5.261tce和41613.294万tce，而高速情景下则分别为7.618tce和60258.456万tce.河北未来的能源结构将长期保持相对稳定的状态，煤炭在能源结构中的绝对份额短期内难以改变，预计到2035年煤炭的消费占比仍将达到88.16%.河北的CO₂排放量将依然长期保持增长趋势.高速情景下，预计CO₂排放量将从2017年的87699.314万t增加至2035年的159117.415万t，分别是同期低速增长情景下的1.01倍和1.45倍.应保持经济合理增长，优化能源消费结构，调整产业布局，培育和发展新动能.

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	翁智雄
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	蔡松锋
	程翠云
	杜艳春

关键词 ：能源需求预测, 能源结构预测, 经济增长, 碳排放, 河北

Abstract：This study uses the cointegration test and the Markov chain method to project Hebei's future (2017~2035) energy demand and structure, and the associated CO₂ emissions by considering three distinct economic developing scenarios. The results show that the economic growth has strong pulling effect on energy demand. Under the low-growth scenario, Hebei's per capita energy consumption and total consumption will reach 5.261tce and 416.13million tce respectively. While these consumptions will be 7.618tce and 602.58million tce respectively under the high-growth scenario. Hebei's future energy consumption structure will maintain stable in the long term, unlikely to change the percentage of coal in total energy consumption. The coal consumption will reach 88.16% in Hebei's total energy consumption in 2035. The increasing trend of Hebei's CO₂ emissions will continue in the long run. Under the high-growth scenario, Hebei's total CO₂ emissions will increase from 876.99million ton in 2017 to 1 591.17million ton, 1.01times and 1.45times higher than the contemporaneous emissions in the low-growth scenario respectively. It's thus necessary to keep Hebei's economic growth within a rational range, optimize energy consumption structure, adjust industrial distribution, cultivate and develop new economy.

Key words： energy demand projection energy structure projection economic growth carbon emission Hebei province

收稿日期: 2019-02-27

PACS:

X24

基金资助:国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFA0602601）；国家社会科学基金项目（18BJL058）；国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFC0213700）

通讯作者: 马忠玉,教授,mazy@sic.gov.cn E-mail: mazy@sic.gov.cn

作者简介: 翁智雄(1989-),男,浙江杭州人,中国人民大学环境学院博士研究生,主要从事气候变化经济、能源与环境经济研究.发表论文30余篇.

引用本文:

翁智雄, 马忠玉, 葛察忠, 蔡松锋, 程翠云, 杜艳春. 不同经济发展路径下的能源需求与碳排放预测——基于河北省的分析[J]. 中国环境科学, 2019, 39(8): 3508-3517. WENG Zhi-xiong, MA Zhong-yu, GE Cha-zhong, CAI Song-feng, CHENG Cui-yun, DU Yan-Chun. Projection on energy demand and carbon emission in various economic developing pathways——A case study in Hebei province. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2019, 39(8): 3508-3517.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2019/V39/I8/3508

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