中国农业碳排放的空间分异与动态演进&mdash;&mdash;基于空间和非参数估计方法的实证研究

章胜勇; 尹朝静; 贺亚亚; 肖小勇

PDF(1312 KB)

中国环境科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3) : 1356-1363.

环境影响评价与管理

中国农业碳排放的空间分异与动态演进——基于空间和非参数估计方法的实证研究

章胜勇¹, 尹朝静², 贺亚亚³, 肖小勇¹

作者信息 +

Spatial differentiation and dynamic evolution of agricultural carbon emission in China——Empirical research based on spatial and non-parametric estimation methods

ZHANG Sheng-yong¹, YIN Chao-jing², HE Ya-ya³, XIAO Xiao-yong¹

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

为研究农业碳排放的空间分布与动态演进规律，运用1993~2017年中国大陆29个省份的面板数据，在分省测算农业碳排放量和农业碳排放强度的基础上，将空间和非参数估计方法相结合，考察了中国农业碳排放的空间分异及其动态演进.结果表明：中国农业碳排放量呈“中心-外围”模式分布，且表现出向“外围”扩散的趋势；碳排放强度呈逐渐下降的趋势，表现为西高东低的阶梯状分布特征；碳排放的地区间差距不断缩小，农业碳排放的增长分布由“二主一小”向“一主”的格局转变，与此同时，中国农业碳排放还表现出由“两极”向“多极”转变的分布格局.

Abstract

In order to study the spatial distribution and dynamic evolution trend of agricultural carbon emission, the research measured agricultural carbon emission and calculated agricultural carbon emission intensity of 29 provinces in China over the period 1993~2017, and finally investigated the spatial differentiation and dynamic evolution process of agricultural carbon emission using spatial and non-parametric estimation methods. The results showed that China's agricultural carbon emission presented the "center-periphery" pattern distribution and a diffusion trend to "periphery". China's agricultural carbon emission intensity showed a gradual decline trend, presenting a stepwise pattern distribution of west high and east low. The regional disparities of agricultural carbon emission emerged downtrend in China. The distribution of agricultural carbon emission has changed from "two mains and one minor" to "one main". At the same time, the regional distribution pattern of agricultural carbon emission in China has changed from "bipolar" to "multi-polar"

导出引用

章胜勇, 尹朝静, 贺亚亚, 肖小勇. 中国农业碳排放的空间分异与动态演进——基于空间和非参数估计方法的实证研究[J]. 中国环境科学. 2020, 40(3): 1356-1363

ZHANG Sheng-yong, YIN Chao-jing, HE Ya-ya, XIAO Xiao-yong. Spatial differentiation and dynamic evolution of agricultural carbon emission in China——Empirical research based on spatial and non-parametric estimation methods[J]. China Environmental Science. 2020, 40(3): 1356-1363

中图分类号： X171

参考文献

[1] 张广胜,王珊珊.中国农业碳排放的结构、效率及其决定机制[J]. 农业经济问题, 2014,(7):18-26,110. Zhang G S, Wang S S. China's agricultural carbon emission:structure, efficiency and its determinants[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2014,(7):18-26,110.
[2] 闵继胜,胡浩.中国农业生产温室气体排放量的测算[J]. 中国人口.资源与环境, 2012,22(7):21-27. Min J S, Hu H. Calculation of greenhouse gases emission from agricultural production in China[J]. China Population, Resources and Envionment, 2012,22(7):21-27.
[3] 田云,张俊飚,李波.中国农业碳排放研究:测算、时空比较及脱钩效应[J]. 资源科学, 2012,34(11):2097-2105. Tian Y, Zhang J B, Li B. Agricultural carbon emissions in China:Calculation, spatial-temporal comparison and decoupling effects[J]. Resources Science, 2012,34(11):2097-2105.
[4] 田云,张俊飚,李波.基于投入角度的农业碳排放时空特征及因素分解研究——以湖北省为例[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2011,32(6):752-755. Tian Y, Zhang J B, Li B. Research on spatial-temporal characteristics and factor decomposition of agricultural carbon emission based on input angle:Taking Hubei province for example[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2011,32(6):752-755.
[5] 韩岳峰,张龙.中国农业碳排放变化因素分解研究——基于能源消耗与贸易角度的LMDI分解法[J]. 当代经济研究, 2013,(4):47-52. Han Y F, Zhang L. Decomposition of agricultural carbon emission in China:LMDI decomposition method based on energy consumption and trade[J]. Contemporary Economic Research, 2013,(4):47-52.
[6] 王惠,卞艺杰.农业生产效率、农业碳排放的动态演进与门槛特征[J]. 农业技术经济, 2015,(6):36-47. Wang H, Bian Y J. Dynamic evolution and threshold characteristics of agricultural production efficiency and agricultural carbon Emission[J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2015,(6):36-47.
[7] 董明涛.我国农业碳排放与产业结构的关联研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2016,30(10):7-12. Dong M T. The association of agricultural carbon emissions and industrial structure in China[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2016,30(10):7-12.
[8] 陈银娥,陈薇.农业机械化、产业升级与农业碳排放关系研究——基于动态面板数据模型的经验分析[J]. 农业技术经济, 2018,(5):122-133. Chen Y E, Chen W. A Study on the relationship among agricultural mechanization, industrial upgrading and agricultural carbon emission:The empirical research based on dynamic panel data model[J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2018,(5):122-133.
[9] 胡川,韦院英,胡威.农业政策、技术创新与农业碳排放的关系研究[J]. 农业经济问题, 2018,(9):66-75. Hu C, Wei Y Y, Hu W. Research on the relationship between agricultural policy, technological innovation and agricultural carbon emissions[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2018,(9):66-75.
[10] 田云,张俊飚.中国省级区域农业碳排放公平性研究[J]. 中国人口.资源与环境, 2013,23(11):36-44. Tian Y, Zhang J B. Fairness research of agricultural carbon emissions between provincial regions in China[J]. China Population, Resources and Envionment, 2013,23(11):36-44.
[11] 高鸣,宋洪远.中国农业碳排放绩效的空间收敛与分异[J]. 经济地理, 2015,35(4):142-148,185. Gao M, Song H Y. Dynamic changes and spatial agglomeration analysis of the Chinese agricultural carbon emissions performance[J]. Economic Geography, 2015,35(4):142-148,185.
[12] 吴贤荣,张俊飚,田云,等.基于公平与效率双重视角的中国农业碳减排潜力分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2015,30(7):1172-1182. Wu X R, Zhang J B, Tian Y, et al. Analysis on China's agricultural carbon abatement capacity from the perspective of both equity and efficiency[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2015,30(7):1172-1182.
[13] 张露,张俊飚,童庆蒙,等.农业碳排放研究进展:基于CiteSpace的文献计量分析[J]. 科技管理研究, 2015,(21):219-223. Zhang L, Zhang J B, Tong Q M, et al. Progress in agricultural carbon emission:Bibliometric analysis based on citeSpace[J]. Science and Technology Management Research., 2015,(21):219-223.
[14] 田云,张俊飚,尹朝静,等.中国农业碳排放分布动态与趋势演进——基于31个省(市、区)2002~2011年的面板数据分析[J]. 中国人口.资源与环境, 2014,24(7):91-98. Tian Y, Zhangc, et al. Distributional dynamics and trend evolution of China's agricultural carbon emissions:An analysis on panel data of 31provinces from 2002 to 2011[J]. China Population, Resources and Envionment, 2014,24(7):91-98.
[15] 刘华军,鲍振,杨骞.中国农业碳排放的地区差距及其分布动态演进——基于Dagum基尼系数分解与非参数估计方法的实证研究[J]. 农业技术经济, 2013,(3):72-81. Liu H J, Bao Z, Yang Q. The regional gap and dynamic evolution of agricultural carbon emission distribution in China:Empirical research based on the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition and nonparametric estimation method[J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2013,(3):72-81.
[16] Hyndman R J, Bashtannyk D M, Grunwald G K. Estimating and visualizing conditional densities[J]. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 1996,5(4):315-336.
[17] Goodland R, Anhang J. Livestock and climate change:What if the key actors in climate change are... cows, pigs, and chickens?[M]. Washington, DC, USA:Worldwatch Institute, 2009.
[18] 李波,张俊飚,李海鹏.中国农业碳排放时空特征及影响因素分解[J]. 中国人口.资源与环境, 2011,21(8):80-86. Li B, Zhang J B, Li H P. Research on spatial-temporal characteristics and affecting factors decomposition of agricultural carbon emission in China[J]. China Population, Resources and Envionment, 2011,21(8):80-86.
[19] 韦沁,曲建升,白静,等.我国农业碳排放的影响因素和南北区域差异分析[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2018,34(4):318-325. Wei Q, Qu J S, Bai J, et al. Influencing factors of agricultural carbon emission and regional differences between south and north in China[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2018,34(4):318-325.
[20] 颜廷武,田云,张俊飚,等.中国农业碳排放拐点变动及时空分异研究[J]. 中国人口.资源与环, 2014,24(11):1-8. Yan T W, Tian Y, Zhang J B, et al. Research on inflection point change and spatial and temporal variation of China's agricultural carbon emissions[J]. China Population, Resources and Envionment, 2014, 24(11):1-8.
[21] 何艳秋,陈柔,吴昊玥,等.中国农业碳排放空间格局及影响因素动态研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报, 2018,26(9):1269-1282. He Y Q, Chen R, Wu H Y, et al. Spatial dynamics of agricultural carbon emissions in China and the related driving factors[J]. China Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2018,26(9):1269-1282.