Characteristics and prediction of greenhouse gas emission from livestock industry in Central China
XIE Ting1, ZHANG Hui2, HE Jia-jun3, LIU Yu1, HUANG Kai-wei1, SONG Ming-wei1
1. Hubei Key Laboratory of Soil Environment and Pollution Remediation, College of Resources and Environment, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China;
2. School of Chemistry and Environmental, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan 430205, China;
3. School of Management, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan 430205, China
The greenhouse gases inventory of central China was calculated according to IPCC guideline, and then a systematical analysis was conduct to reveal the status of animal husbandry in terms of total greenhouse gases emissions and emission intensity. In addition, a Logistic growth model, a Gompertz curve model and other non-linear time series models were used to simulate the livestock numbers and the corresponding greenhouse gases emissions of livestock in central China in 2030. In 2015, the total emissions of central China was 62.8909 million tCO2-eq, with emissions per unit GDP about 11,300tCO2-eq/billion yuan, or emissions per unit meat output about 3.73tCO2-eq/t. In 2030, the total emissions range from 49.90 to 59.33million tCO2-eq according to different model settings. Technical improvement in animal husbandry should be further optimized to promote the greenhouse gases emission efficiency. In addition, plans for keeping reasonable livestock with optimized structure is also essential to reduce the emissions of animal husbandry.
谢婷, 张慧, 何家军, 刘煜, 黄凯葳, 宋明伟. 华中地区畜牧业温室气体排放特征分析与预测[J]. 中国环境科学, 2020, 40(2): 564-572.
XIE Ting, ZHANG Hui, HE Jia-jun, LIU Yu, HUANG Kai-wei, SONG Ming-wei. Characteristics and prediction of greenhouse gas emission from livestock industry in Central China. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(2): 564-572.
王锋.中国碳排放峰值及其倒逼机制研究的发展动态[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2018,(2):141-150. Wang Feng. Development trend of the study on China's carbon emission peak and its forcing mechanisms[J]. China population, resources and environment, 2018,(2):141-150.
[2]
姚成胜,钱双双,李政通,等.中国省际畜牧业碳排放测度及时空演化机制[J]. 资源科学, 2017(4):698-712. Yao C S, Qian S S, Li Z T, et al. Provincial animal husbandry carbon emissions in China and temporal-spatial evolution mechanism[J]. Resources Science, 2017,(4):698-712.
[3]
邓吉祥,刘晓,王铮.中国碳排放的区域差异及演变特征分析与因素分解[J]. 自然资源学报, 2014,29(2):189-200. Deng J X, Liu X, Wang Z. Characteristics analysis and factor decomposition based on the regional difference changes in China's CO2 emission[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014,29(2):189-200.
[4]
Yang J, Zhang T, Sheng P, et al. Carbon dioxide emissions and interregional economic convergence in China[J]. Economic Modelling, 2016,52:672-680.
[5]
贺亚亚,田云,张俊飚.湖北省农业碳排放时空比较及驱动因素分析[J]. 华中农业大学学报(社会科学版), 2013,(5):85-91. He Y Y, Tian Y, Zhang J B. Analysis on spatial-temporal difference and driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Hebei province. Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University (Social Sciences Edition), 2013,(5):79-85.
[6]
李建豹,黄贤金,吴常艳,等.中国省域碳排放的空间格局预测分析[J]. 生态经济, 2017,(3):46-52. Li J, Huang X, Wu C, et al. Spatial pattern forecast of China's provincial Carbon emissions. Ecological Economy, 2017,(3):46-52.
[7]
吴义根,冯开文.中国省际农业碳排放的时空分异特征及关联效应[J]. 环境科学与技术, 2019,42(3):180-190. Wu Y, Feng K. Spatialtemporal differentiation features and correlation effects of provincial agricultural carbon emission in China[J]. Environment Science & Technology, 2019,42(3):180-190.
[8]
刘月仙,刘娟,吴文良.北京地区畜禽温室气体排放的时空变化分析[J]. 中国生态农业学报, 2013,21(7):891-897. Li Y X, Li J, Wu W L. Spatiotemporal dynamics of greenhouse gases emissions from livestock and poultry in Beijing area during 1978-2009. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2013,21(7):891-897.
[9]
师帅,李翠霞,李媚婷.畜牧业"碳排放"到"碳足迹"核算方法的研究进展[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2017,(6):36-41. Shi S, Li C X, Li M T. Review of research from carbon emissions to carbon footprint in livestock husbandry[J]. China population, resources and environment, 2017,(6):36-41.
[10]
孟祥海,程国强,张俊飚,等.中国畜牧业全生命周期温室气体排放时空特征分析[J]. 中国环境科学, 2014,34(8):2167-2176. Meng X H, Cheng G Q, Zhang J B. Analyze on the spatialtemporal characteristics of GHG estimation of livestock's by life cycle assessment in China[J]. China Evironmental Science, 2014,34(8):2167-2176.
[11]
Wang Q, Chiu Y H, Chiu C R. Driving factors behind carbon dioxide emissions in China:A modified production-theoretical decomposition analysis[J]. Energy Economics, 2015,51:252-260.
[12]
陈苏,胡浩.中国畜禽温室气体排放时空变化及影响因素研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2016,26(7):93-100. Chen S, Hu H. Study on the spatial-temporal changes and influence factors of greenhouse emission from livestork and poultry in China[J]. China population, resources and environment, 2016,26(7):93-100.
[13]
韦沁.我国农牧业碳排放的时空差异和影响因素分析及预测研究[D]. 兰州:兰州大学, 2018. Wei Q. Research on spatial-temporal differences, influence factors and prediction of carbon emission in agriculture and animal husbandry in China[D]. Lanzhou:Lanzhou university, 2018.
[14]
冉锦成,苏洋,胡金凤,等.新疆农业碳排放时空特征、峰值预测及影响因素研究[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2017,(8):16-24. Ran J C, Su Y, Hu J F. Temporal and spatial characteristics, peak value forecast and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Xinjing[J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Resources and Regional Planning, 2017,(8):16-24.
[15]
郭娇,齐德生,张妮娅,等.中国畜牧业温室气体排放现状及峰值预测[J]. 农业环境科学学报, 2017,(10):188-195. Guo J, Qi D S, Zhang N Y. Chinese greenhouse gas emissions from livestock; Trend and predicted peak value[J]. Journal of Agro-Environment Science, 2017,(10):188-195.
[16]
尚杰,杨果,于法稳.中国农业温室气体排放量测算及影响因素研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报, 2015,(3). Shang J, Yang G, Yu F. Agricultural greenhouse gases emission and influencing factors in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2015,(3).
[17]
IPCC, 2006年IPCC国家温室气体排放清单指南[R]. 政府间气候变化专门委员会, 2006,IPCC. IPCC, 2016IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories[R]. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2006.
[18]
郭旋,张良茂,胡荣桂,等.华中地区种植业生产碳排放驱动因素分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2016,25(5):695-701. Guo X, Zhang L M, Hu R G. Influencing factor decomposition of planting carbon emission in central China[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2016,25(5):695-701.
[19]
Zhu B, Wang K, Chevallier J, et al. Can China achieve its carbon intensity target by 2020 while sustaining economic growth?[J]. Ecological Economics, 2015,119:209-216.
[20]
王勇,程瑜,杨光春,等.2020和2030年碳强度目标约束下中国碳排放权的省区分解[J]. 中国环境科学, 2018,38(8):382-390. Wang Y, Cheng Y, Yang G C. Provincial decomposition of China's carbon emission rights under the constraint of 2020 and 2030 carbon intensity targets[J]. China Environment Science, 2018,38(8):382-390.
[21]
杜强,陈乔,杨锐.基于Logistic模型的中国各省碳排放预测[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2013,22(2):140. Du Q, Chen Q, Yang R. Forecast carbon emission of provinces in China based on logistic model[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2013,22(2):140.
[22]
《中国畜牧业年鉴》编辑委员会.《中国畜牧业年鉴》[M]. 北京:中国农业出版社, 2015. Editorial board of China animal husbandry yearbook. China animal husbandry yearbook[M]. Beijing:China agricultural press, 2015.
[23]
田云,张俊飚.中国低碳农业发展的动态演进及收敛性研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2017,(3):1-7. Tian Y, Zhang J B. Dynamic evolution and convergence on the development of China' low carbon agriculture[J]. Journal od Arid Land Reasources and Environment, 2017,(3):1-7.
[24]
Wang S, Li Q, Fang C, et al. The relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions:Empirical evidence from China[J]. The Science of the total environment, 2015,542(Pt A):360-371.
