近20年我国虚拟水、能消耗及耦合和需求预测

王风初; 曹建军; 王宁; 焦雨萌; 李裕

PDF(1454 KB)

中国环境科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (10) : 4919-4930.

环境影响评价与管理

近20年我国虚拟水、能消耗及耦合和需求预测

王风初¹, 曹建军¹, 王宁¹, 焦雨萌¹, 李裕²

作者信息 +

Consumption and coupling of virtual water and virtual energy in the past 20 years and predicting their demand for the next decade in China

WANG Feng-chu¹, CAO Jian-jun¹, WANG Ning¹, JIAO Yu-meng¹, LI Yu²

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

基于我国1997~2018年投入产出表及水资源和能源消耗数据，运用投入-产出模型计算了三大产业虚拟水、能的消耗量.在此基础上，通过构建虚拟水-虚拟能系统综合评价指标体系，对虚拟水、能系统发展状况进行了综合评价.与此同时，运用耦合协调度模型，测算了虚拟水、能系统的耦合协调水平.最后，利用指数平滑模型，预测了我国2022~2032年虚拟水、能消耗总量.结果表明：（1）近20年来，三大产业虚拟水、能消耗量均呈上升趋势，但第一、二产业的虚拟水、能消耗占比呈波动下降趋势，而第三产业的呈上升趋势，其中，GDP和第三产业完全用水（能耗）系数是影响我国虚拟水（能）消耗量的重要因素；（2）三大产业直接用水（能耗）系数、完全用水（能耗）系数呈下降趋势，水资源和能源利用效率不断提高；（3）通过间接消耗大量水资源和能源，第二、三产业的用水和能耗乘数较高，是“隐形”的高耗水、高耗能产业；（4）虚拟水-虚拟能系统处于高水平耦合，但仅达到初级协调发展阶段；（5）未来10年，我国虚拟水、能及实体能消耗量仍呈上升趋势，但实体水消耗量呈下降趋势.为此，应通过优化产业结构，提高产业链各环节水、能资源利用效率，改善消费结构，提升虚拟水-虚拟能系统耦合协调度，以缓解我国水资源和能源危机.

Abstract

Based on China's water and energy consumption data from 1997 to 2018, the input-output model was used to estimate the consumption of virtual water and energy in the three industries. At the same time, the coupling coordination degree model was used to simulate the coupling coordination level of the virtual water and energy system. Finally, the exponential smoothing method was used to predict the total consumption of virtual water and energy in China from 2022 to 2032. The results show that:(1) In the last 20years, the consumption of virtual water and energy showed an general upward trend in the three industries, and the proportion of virtual water and energy consumption in the primary and secondary industries showed downward trends, while that in the tertiary industry showed an upward trend; (2) The direct and complete water and energy consumption coefficients of the three industries showed downward trends, resulting in the continuous improvement in the utilization efficiency of water and energy; (3) Through indirectly consuming a large amount of water and energy, the secondary and tertiary industries were thought as "invisible" industries with high water and energy consumption; (4) The virtual water-energy system was in a high level of coupling, but it only reached the primary stage of coordinated development; (5) The consumption of virtual water, energy and physical energy will still increase, while that of physical water will decrease in the decade. Therefore, to alleviate China's water and energy crisis in the future, it is necessary to optimize the industrial structure, increase the utilization efficiency of water and energy resources in all links of the industrial chain, improve the consumption structure, and enhance the coupling and coordination degree of the virtual water-energy system.

导出引用

王风初, 曹建军, 王宁, 焦雨萌, 李裕. 近20年我国虚拟水、能消耗及耦合和需求预测[J]. 中国环境科学. 2022, 42(10): 4919-4930

WANG Feng-chu, CAO Jian-jun, WANG Ning, JIAO Yu-meng, LI Yu. Consumption and coupling of virtual water and virtual energy in the past 20 years and predicting their demand for the next decade in China[J]. China Environmental Science. 2022, 42(10): 4919-4930

中图分类号： X21 F426.2 TV213.4

参考文献

[1] Allan J A.Virtual water:A strategic resource global solutions to regional deficits[J].Ground Water, 1998,36(4):545-546.
[2] 齐晔,李惠民,徐明.中国进出口贸易中的隐含能估算[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2008,18(3):69-75.Qi Y, Li H M, Xu M.Accounting embodied energy in import and export in China[J].China Population Resources and Environment, 2008,18(3):69-75.
[3] 程国栋.虚拟水-中国水资源安全战略的新思路[J].中国科学院院刊, 2003,18(4):260-265.Cheng G D.Virtual water-a strategic instrument to achieve water security[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2003, 18(4):260-265.
[4] Antonelli M, Tamea S.Food-water security and virtual water trade in the Middle East and North Africa[J].International Journal of Water Resources Development, 2015,31(3):326-342.
[5] Sreevidhya K S, Elango L.Temporal variation in export and import of virtual water through popular crop and livestock products by India[J].Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 2019,8:468-473.
[6] Deng G, Lu F, Wu L, et al.Social network analysis of virtual water trade among major countries in the world[J].Science of the Total Environment, 2021,753:142043.
[7] 孙思奥,王晶,戚伟.青藏高原地区城乡虚拟水贸易格局与影响因素[J].地理学报, 2020,75(7):1346-1358.Sun S A, Wang J, Qi W.Urban and rural virtual water trade of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau:Patterns and influencing factors[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020,75(7):1346-1358.
[8] Graaf D, Willem R A.The netherlands and foreign trade embodied energy a decomposition analysis of structural and technical effects[D].Sweden:Lund University, 2011.
[9] Gasim A A.The embodied energy in trade:What role does specialization play?[J] Energy Policy, 2015,86:186-197.
[10] Yang R, Long R, Yue T, et al.Calculation of embodied energy in Sino-USA trade:1997~2011[J].Energy Policy, 2014,72:110-119.
[11] Zhang B, Qiao H, Chen Z M, et al.Growth in embodied energy transfers via China's domestic trade:Evidence from multi-regional input-output analysis[J].Applied Energy, 2016,184:1093-1105.
[12] 王雪艳,张永凯,周亮,等.甘肃省虚拟能行业分布及其省际贸易空间格局[J].中国环境科学, 2020,40(4):1847-1856.Wang X Y, Zhang Y K, Zhou L, et al.Research on virtual energy industry distribution and interprovincial trade in Gansu Province[J].China Environmental Science, 2020,40(4):1847-1856.
[13] 杨蕾,杜鹏,夏斌.基于投入产出分析的广东省隐含能消费及贸易研究[J].科技管理研究, 2014,13:224-228.Yang L, Du P, Xia B.Study on the embodied energy consumption and trade in Guangdong province based on input-output model[J].Science and Technology Management Research, 2014,13:224-228.
[14] 武翠芳,罗艳,县雅宁,等.西部地区产业用水变化的驱动效应及其时空差异分析[J].兰州财经大学学报, 2020,36(2):62-72.Wu C F, Luo Y, Xian Y N, et al.Analysis on driving effect of industrial water consumption and its spatio-temporal differentiation in western China[J].Journal of Lanzhou Commercial College, 2020,36(2):62-72.
[15] 汪慧玲,罗艳,武翠芳.西部地区产业用水量变化驱动效应测度[A]//中国数量经济学会.中国数量经济学会2019年年会论文集.兰州:中国数量经济学会, 2019:544-556.Wang H L, Luo Y, Wu C F.Measurement of driving effect of industrial water consumption change in Western China[A]//Chinese Association of Quantitative Economics.Proceedings of 2019annual meeting of Chinese Association of Quantitative Economics.Lanzhou:Chinese Association of Quantitative Economics, 2019:544-556.
[16] 吴兆丹,赵敏,Upmanu L,等.关于中国水足迹研究综述[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2013,23(11):73-80.Wu Z D, Zhao M, Upmanu L, et al.A review of researches on Chinese water footprint[J].China Population Resources and Environment, 2013,23(11):73-80.
[17] Leontief W W.Quantitative input and output relations in the economic systems of the United States[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1936,18(3):105-125.
[18] 吴争程,郑珍远.福建省虚拟水贸易分析[J].泉州师范学院学报(自然科学), 2007,25(4):83-87.Wu Z C, Zheng Z Y.The analysis of virtual water trading in Fujian province[J].Journal of Quanzhou Normal University (Natural Science), 2007,25(4):83-87.
[19] Breiman.Randomforests[J].Mach Learn, 2001,45(1):5-32.
[20] 刘红梅,李国军,王克强.中国农业虚拟水国际贸易影响因素研究——基于引力模型的分析[J].管理世界, 2010,(9):76-87.Liu H M, Li G J, Wang K Q.A study on the determinants of the agricultural virtual water trade between China and other countries[J].Management World, 2010,(9):76-87.
[21] 王晓萌,黄凯,杨顺顺,等.中国产业部门水足迹演变及其影响因素分析[J].自然资源学报, 2014,29(12):2114-2126.Wang X M, Huang K, Yang S S, et al.Temporal variability and influencing factors of sectoral water footprint in China[J].Journal of Natural Resources, 2014,29(12):2114-2126.
[22] 何焰.上海市水环境生态安全与评价研究[D].上海:华东师范大学, 2004.HE Y.Stduies on ecological security assessment of the environment shanghai[D].Shanghai:East China Normal University, 2004.
[23] Liu W, Jiao F, Ren L, et al.Coupling coordination relationship between urbanization and atmospheric environment security in Jinan City[J].Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018,204:1-11.
[24] Liu N, Liu C, Xia Y, et al.Examining the coordination between urbanization and eco-environment using coupling and spatial analyses:A case study in China[J].Ecological Indicators, 2018,93:1163-1175.
[25] Xu S, He W, Shen J, et al.Coupling and coordination degrees of the core water-energy-food nexus in China[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2019,16(9):1648.
[26] 刘耀彬,李仁东,宋学锋.中国城市化与生态环境耦合度分析[J].资源生态, 2005,20(1):105-112.Liu Y B, Li R D, Song X F.Analysis of coupling degrees of urbanization and ecological environment in China[J].Journal of Natural Resources, 2005,20(1):105-112.
[27] 廖重斌.环境与经济协调发展的定量评判及其分类体系——以珠江三角洲城市群为例[J].热带地理, 1999,19(2):171-177.Liao C B.Quantitaitve judgement and classification system for coordinated development of environment and economy——A case study of the city group in the pearl river delta[J].Tropical Geography, 1999,19(2):171-177.
[28] Sneyers R.On the statistical analysis of series of observations[J].Journal of Biological Chemistry, 1990,258(22):13680-4.
[29] Mann H B.Non-parametric tests against trend[J].Econometrica, 1945,13:245-259.
[30] Westra S, Alexander L V, Zwiers F W.Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation[J].Journal of Climate, 2013, 26(11):7834.
[31] Brown R G, Meyer R F.The fundamental theorem of exponential smoothing[J].Operations Research, 1961,9(5):673-685.
[32] 张文彤,董伟.SPSS统计分析高级教程[M].第3版.北京:高等教育出版社, 2018.Zhang W T, Dong W.SPSS advanced course on statistical analysis[M].3rd ed.Beijing:Higher Education Press, 2018.
[33] Kennedy C, Zhong M, Corfee-Morlot J.Infrastructure for China's ecologically balanced civilization[J].Engineering, 2016,2:414-425.
[34] Caraiani C, Lungu C I, Dascălu C.Energy consumption and GDP causality:A three-step analysis for emerging European countries[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2015,44:198-210.
[35] Dalin C, Konar M, Hanasaki N, et al.Evolution of the global virtual water trade network[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2012,109(16):5989-5994.
[36] Tian X, Engel B A, Qian H, et al.Will reaching the maximum achievable yield potential meet future global food demand?[J] Journal of Cleaner Production, 2021,294:126285.
[37] Geng Q, Ren Q, Nolan R H, et al.Assessing China's agricultural water use efficiency in a green-blue water perspective:A study based on data envelopment analysis[J].Ecological Indicators, 2019,96:329-335.
[38] Han X, Cao T, Sun T.Analysis on the variation rule and influencing factors of energy consumption carbon emission intensity in China's urbanization construction[J].Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019,238(60):117958.
[39] 武力,温锐.1949年以来中国工业化的"轻、重"之辨[J].经济研究, 2006,(9):39-49.Li W, Rui W.The relation between light and heavy industry of China's industrialization since 1949[J].Economic Research Journal, 2006,(9):39-49.
[40] Cao Y, Peng S J, Zhang W C.The change of energy consumption in China and it's driving forces[J].Applied Mechanics & Materials, 2015,700:739-742.
[41] Zhao X, Ma C, Hong D.Why did China's energy intensity increase during 1998~2006:Decomposition and policy analysis[J].Energy Policy, 2010,38(3):1379-1388.
[42] Qi Z X, Chen W Y, Wu Z X.Heavy industry share increase is causing higher energy consumption[J].China Economist, 2007,(4):37-46.
[43] Fan X, Liu J, Chen J, et al.Changes of land use and functions of ecosystem service:A case study in China[J].Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 2019,28(1):73-82.
[44] Blanke A, Rozelle S, Lohmar B, et al.Water saving technology and saving water in China[J].Agricultural Water Management, 2007,87(2):139-150.
[45] Lu Y, Mu H, Li H.An analysis of present situation and future trend about the energy consumption of Chinese agriculture sector[J].Procedia Environmental ences, 2011,11:1400-1406.
[46] Jiang M J, Hu X J, Chunga J, et al.Does the popularization of agricultural mechanization improve energy-environment performance in China's agricultural sector?[J] Journal of Cleaner Production, 2020, 276(1):124210.
[47] 付保宗.当前我国工业转型升级的进展、障碍与对策[J].经济纵横, 2016,364(3):29-36.Fu B Z.Progress, obstacles and countermeasures of China's industrial transformation and upgrading[J].Economic Review, 2016,364(3):29-36.
[48] Fujii H, Managi S, Kaneko S.A water resource efficiency analysis of the Chinese industrial sector[J].Environmental Economics, 2012,3(3):82-92.
[49] Wang Z H, Zeng H L, Wei Y M, et al.Regional total factor energy efficiency:An empirical analysis of industrial sector in China[J].Applied Energy, 2012,97:115-123.
[50] 刘伟,蔡志洲.我国工业化进程中产业结构升级与新常态下的经济增长[J].北京大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2015,52(3):5-19.Liu W, Cai Z Z.The upgradation of industrial structure in the process of China's industrialization and it's economic growth under the new normal[J].Journal of Peking University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2015,52(3):5-19.
[51] Yang H, Wang L, Abbaspour K C, et al.Virtual water trade:an assessment of water use efficiency in the international food trade[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2006,10(3):443-454.
[52] 王浩,汪林,杨贵羽,等.我国农业水资源形势与高效利用战略举措[J].中国工程科学, 2018,20(5):9-15.Wang H, Wang L, Yang G Y, et al.Agricultural water resource in China and strategic measures for its efficient utilization[J].Engineering Science, 2018,20(5):9-15.
[53] Agency I E.Worldwide trends in energy use and efficiency[J].Key Insights from Iea Indicator Analysis, 2008.
[54] 王强,郑颖,伍世代,等.能源效率对产业结构及能源消费结构演变的响应[J].地理学报, 2011,66(6):741-749.Wang Q, Zheng Y, Wu S D, et al.Mechanism of energy efficiency response to industrial restructuring and energy consumption structure change[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011,66(6):741-749.
[55] Song G, Yang T Y, Liu J H.Review of researches on agricultural industry chain at home and abroad[J].Asian Agricultural Research, 2014,6(9):36-40.
[56] Ercin A E, Mekonnen M M, Hoekstra A Y.Sustainability of national consumption from a water resources perspective:The case study for France[J].Ecological Economics, 2013,88:133-147.
[57] 刘彦随,王介勇,郭丽英.中国粮食生产与耕地变化的时空动态[J].中国农业科学, 2009,42(12):4269-4274.Liu Y S, Wang J Y, Guo L Y.The spatial-temporal changes of grain production and arable land in China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2009,42(12):4269-4274.
[58] 王文静,石培基,马忠.基于区域投入产出模型的甘肃省水资源状况分析[J].水土保持通报, 2012,32(6):296-300.Wang W J, Shi P J, Ma Z.Analysis on water resources of Gansu province using regional input-output model[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2012,32(6):296-300.
[59] 张捷,熊俊.虚拟水资源视角的产业结构优化研究[J].产经评论, 2019,10(4):109-121.Zhang J, Xiong J.Optimization analysis of industrial structure under virtual water resources[J].Industrial Economic Review, 2019,10(4):109-121.
[60] Shafiei M, Moosavirad S H, Azimifard A, et al.Water consumption assessment in Asian chemical industries supply chains based on input-output analysis and one-way analysis of variance[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2020,27(11):12242-12255.
[61] 岳书敬,王旭兰.长三角地区制造业能源消耗的差异性研究——基于细分行业的视角[J].东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2014, 16(3):38-43,134-135.Yue S J, Wang X L.Study on the difference of manufacturing energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta-from the perspective of industry segmentation[J].Journal of Southeast University (Philosophy and Social Science), 2014,16(3):38-43,134-135.
[62] Wagner G.Energy content of world trade[J].Energy Policy, 2010,38(12):7710-7721.
[63] 陈洪滨,范学花.2007年极端天气和气候事件及其他相关事件的概要回顾[J].气候与环境研究, 2008,13(1):102-112.Chen H B, Fan X H.Some extreme events of weather, climate and related phenomena in 2007[J].Climatic and Environmental Research, 2008,13(1):102-112.
[64] Cui D, Chen X, Xue Y, et al.An integrated approach to investigate the relationship of coupling coordination between social economy and water environment on urban scale-A case study of Kunming[J].Journal of Environmental Management, 2019,234:189-199.
[65] 牛方曲,孙东琪.资源环境承载力与中国经济发展可持续性模拟[J].地理学报,2019,74(12):2604-2613.Niu F Q, Sun D Q.Modelling the sustainability of China's growth based on the resource and environmental carrying capacity[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019,74(12):2604-2613.
[66] Han D, Yu D, Cao Q.Assessment on the features of coupling interaction of the food-energy-water nexus in China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019,249(12):119379.
[67] 郝宇,巴宁,盖志强,等.经济承压背景下中国能源经济预测与展望[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2020,22(2):1-9.Hao Y, Ba N, Gai Z Q, et al.Forecast and prospect of China's energy economy under economic pressure amid economic slowdown[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology (Social Sciences Edition), 2020,22(2):1-9.
[68] 赵勇,李海红,刘寒青,等.增长的规律:中国用水极值预测[J].水利学报, 2021,52(2):129-141.Zhao Y, Li H H, Liu H Q, et al.The law of growth:prediction of peak water consumption in China[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2021,52(2):129-141.
[69] Liu X, Shi L, Engel B A, et al.New challenges of food security in Northwest China:Water footprint and virtual water perspective[J].Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019,245:118939.
[70] 李健,王博.基于政策工具的中国节水政策框架分析研究[J].科技管理研究, 2015,35(4):218-223.Li J, Wang B.Analysis on China's water-saving policy framework based on the perspective of policy instruments[J].Science and Technology Management Research, 2015,35(4):218-223.
[71] Sun W, Chen W, Chen C, et al.Constraint regionalization of water environment and the guidance for industrial layout:A case study of Jiangsu province[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2011,21(5):937-948.