Water resources in the megacities could be affected by policies under certain circumstances, especially the water shortage cities in North China. A dynamic model of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) integrated with policy, water resource, economic and population indicators was built using Stella software. The model was based on the method of system dynamics to simulate the response characteristics of WRCC with or without policy interventionsandtake Beijing as a case study. The results showed that the South to North Water Diversion policy will bring an early water security state in Beijing for twenty years in advance, which reflects that the water resources in megacities are strongly affected by human intervention. The optimum point of water transfer is 1.6 billion cubic meters.Beyond that, the effects of increasing water-transfer will be diminishing. Contribution in drought year is more prominent. The evaluation results can provide reference for the optimization of the water resources between north and south, and help to ensure the water security of the megacities.
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LI Ling-ling, XU Lin-yu. Dynamic simulation of policy implications for the water resources carrying capacity of megacities. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2017, 37(11): 4388-4393.
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