京津冀“以电代煤”替代大气污染物排放清单

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摘要本研究建立了基于人工神经网络的民用散煤燃用量估算模型，得到了京津冀地区“以电代煤”替代民用散煤大气污染物排放清单.结果表明：截止到2018年，京津冀地区“以电代煤”替代散煤用户约259万户，每年可减少散煤燃烧约706.6万t，减少PM_2.5、NO_x、SO₂的排放量分别约为2.81，0.76，2.17万t.其中，北京市和天津市实施效果较为明显，占京津冀地区“以电代煤”散煤替代总量的62.01%和22.82%.基于调研数据得到京津冀各市燃煤量月分布系数，1月份分布系数最大，燃煤量占比为27%~40%.

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	李朋
	吴华成
	周卫青
	张子健
	汪美顺
	张茹婷
	刘松涛
	陈传敏

关键词 ：以电代煤, 人工神经网络, 民用散煤, 排放清单, 月分布系数

Abstract：A residential coal consumption estimation model was established based on artificial neural network, an emission inventory of air pollutants from the coal-to-electricity policy, a residential coal replacement program, in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region was obtained. The results showed that there had been 2.59 million households that replaced coal with electricity in the BTH region by the end of 2018, which reduced about 7.07 million tons of residential coal, and reduced the emissions of PM_2.5、NO_x、SO₂ by 28092, 7647 and 21743 tons respectively according to our model. Beijing and Tianjin had achieved more substantial effects and accounted for 62.01% and 22.82% of the total fuel source switch from coal to electricity in the BTH region. Based on the survey data, this study also established the monthly distribution coefficient of coal consumption in BTH cities, and found that the January consumption was largest, which accounted for 27%~40% of the total annual coal consumption.

Key words： coal-to-electricity artificial neural network residential coal emission inventory monthly distribution coefficient

收稿日期: 2020-09-14

PACS:

X513

基金资助:国家电网公司总部科技项目（52010118000C）；国网冀北电力公司科技项目（52018K18001D）

通讯作者: 李朋,高级工程师,lipengzt@139.com E-mail: lipengzt@139.com

作者简介: 李朋(1986-),男,湖北仙桃人,高级工程师,博士,主要从事能源与环保领域相关研究.发表论文10余篇.

引用本文:

李朋, 吴华成, 周卫青, 张子健, 汪美顺, 张茹婷, 刘松涛, 陈传敏. 京津冀“以电代煤”替代大气污染物排放清单[J]. 中国环境科学, 2021, 41(4): 1489-1497. LI Peng, WU Hua-cheng, ZHOU Wei-qing, ZHANG Zi-jian, WANG Mei-shun, ZHANG Ru-ting, LIU Song-tao, CHEN Chuan-min. Emission inventory of atmospheric pollutants replaced by “coal-to-electricity” policy in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(4): 1489-1497.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2021/V41/I4/1489

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