黄河流域水稀缺风险评价

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摘要基于黄河流域水稀缺特点及其成因,提出了综合考虑水量、水质和生态需水因素的流域水稀缺风险(WSR)评估框架,以此评估了2017年黄河流域90个地级市42个部门的直接水稀缺风险损失(DWSR),并通过构建城市尺度环境拓展多区域投入产出模型(MRIO),评估了城市间贸易驱动的间接水稀缺风险损失(IWSR).结果表明:流域DWSR和IWSR分别约为28941.49亿元和34464.08亿元,贸易导致的间接经济损失大于直接经济损失;各城市DWSR和IWSR整体上呈现一定的空间差异性,但高风险城市具有明显的空间集聚性和重合性,主要集中在流域中下游的山东、河南两省,如潍坊、淄博、郑州等;IWSR转移主要由各省内的城市间贸易产生,省际间的风险转移没有形成明显的热点区域;农林牧渔业、化学工业、石油加工、炼焦和核燃料加工业等部门的DWSR较高,同时也是主要的IWSR出口部门.建议结合识别出的重点城市、关键部门等全面加强WSR管理,协同推进黄河流域节水控水、水质改善和生态用水保障,促进流域水资源节约集约高效利用.

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关键词 ：黄河流域, 水稀缺风险, 转移路径, 综合评估, 多区域投入产出模型

Abstract：Based on the characteristics and causes of water scarcity in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), this study proposed a watershed water scarcity risk (WSR) assessment framework that integrates water quantity, quality, and ecological water. Based on this framework, the direct water scarcity risk (DWSR) of 42 sectors in 90 cities in the YRB in 2017 was assessed. A city-scale environmentally extended multi-regional input-output model (MRIO) was constructed to evaluate the indirect water scarcity risk (IWSR) caused by inter-city trade. The results show that the DWSR and IWSR in the YRB were 2894.149 and 3446.408 billion yuan, respectively, indicating that the indirect impact caused by trade is more significant than the direct impact caused by water resources shortage. Both DWSR and IWSR exhibited spatial variability among cities, but the high-risk cities showed apparent spatial agglomeration and overlap, mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the basin, especially in the cities of Shandong and Henan provinces, such as Weifang, Zibo, and Zhengzhou. The transfer of IWSR was mainly caused by inter-city trade within provinces, with no clear hotspots for inter-provincial risk transfer; Agriculture, Chemicals, Petroleum, coking, and nuclear fuel were the sectors with higher DWSR and IWSR exports. It is recommended to comprehensively strengthen WSR management for the identified key cities and sectors and synergistically promote water saving and control, water quality improvement and ecological water security, so as to promote the conservation and efficient utilization of water resources in the YRB.

Key words： Yellow River basin water scarcity risk transfer pathway integrated assessment multi-regional input-output model (MRIO)

收稿日期: 2023-10-07

PACS:

X24

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(72050001)

通讯作者: 李巍,教授,weili@bnu.edu.cn E-mail: weili@bnu.edu.cn

作者简介: 陆中桂(1992-),女,安徽宿州人,北京师范大学博士研究生,主要从事水资源评价与管理方向研究.发表论文3篇.zhongguilu1011@163.com.

引用本文:

陆中桂, 康哲, 李巍, 黄明辉. 黄河流域水稀缺风险评价[J]. 中国环境科学, 2024, 44(6): 3455-3465. LU Zhong-gui, KANG Zhe, LI Wei, HUANG Ming-hui. Water scarcity risk assessment in the Yellow River basin. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(6): 3455-3465.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V44/I6/3455

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