多尺度视角下广东臭氧时空分异特征及驱动因素

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摘要鉴于近地面臭氧(O₃)浓度具有多尺度和复杂非线性的时空变化特征,本研究基于2015~2022年广东地区O₃监测数据和同期气象资料,利用围绕中心点分割(PAM)聚类、Kolmogorov–Zurbenko(KZ)滤波和广义加性模型(GAM)等手段,探讨了不同区域多时间尺度O₃浓度的变化特征及驱动因素.结果表明:广东地区近地面O₃存在跨行政区划的区域性特征,通过对O₃数据聚类分析可以划分出8个子区域; O₃浓度时间序列经尺度分离后,短期分量对总方差贡献最大,其次为季节分量;气象因子与O₃浓度变化的关系受到时间尺度和区域差异的影响;经气象调整后的O₃峰值浓度序列大多在2016年或者2017年后呈现下降的态势,珠三角地区是O₃污染的突出区域,由不利气象条件和人为排放共同引起;O₃浓度时间序列的长期分量大多呈现波动上升的趋势,人为排放虽然是O₃浓度的主要贡献,但气象条件才是驱动O₃浓度变化的主导因素.本研究结果进一步提示O₃污染防控工作需要因时因地制宜,建立基于气象状况变化的前体物减排预案对O₃污染防控具有重要意义.

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	余锐
	步巧利
	陈辰
	麦博儒
	孙丽颖
	江铭诺
	邓若钊
	查进林
	符传博

关键词 ：臭氧, 多尺度, 气象调整, 聚类分析, 时空分异特征

Abstract：The methods of Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) clustering, Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filtering and Generalized Additive Models (GAM) were used to explore the variability and driving factors of O₃ concentration changes at various time scales and regions from 2015 to 2022 in Guangdong Province. The results were as follows: (1) Significant regional features of near-surface O₃ across administrative divisions in Guangdong province were found, and 8subregions could be identified through O₃ data clustering analysis. (2) The short-term component contributed the most to the total variance, followed by the seasonal component after the separation of the O₃ concentration time series. (3) The correlation between meteorological variables and O₃ concentration variation was influenced by both temporal scales and regional characteristics. (4) The peak concentration of O₃ after meteorological adjustment mostly presented a declining trend after 2016 or 2017. The Pearl River Delta region was identified as a prominent area for O₃ pollution, jointly caused by adverse meteorological conditions and anthropogenic emissions. (5) Whilst anthropogenic emissions were the main contributors to O₃ concentrations, the long-term component of the O₃ concentration time series generally exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, and meteorological conditions were the main drivers of O₃. These findings suggest that appropriate O₃ pollution prevention and control work needs to be tailored to specific times and locations, and the development of precursor reduction plans based on meteorological conditions is important in O₃ pollution management.

Key words： ozone multi-scale meteorological adjustment cluster analysis spatiotemporal characteristics

收稿日期: 2023-11-22

PACS:

X51

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(42375174,42005023,42065010);广东省自然科学基金资助项目(2021A1515011494,2022A1515010718);云南省基础研究计划项目(202301AT070199);广东省气象局科技创新团队项目(GRMCTD202003);广东省气象局科研项目(GRMC2022M23);广东省气象数据中心科研项目(2023A13);佛山市气象局科技创新团队项目(202302);佛山市气象局科研项目(202102,202311)

通讯作者: 步巧利,高级工程师,buqiaoli@126.com E-mail: buqiaoli@126.com

作者简介: 余锐(1993-),男,广东饶平人,工程师,硕士,主要从事环境气象研究.发表论文10余篇.meteoyr@163.com.

引用本文:

余锐, 步巧利, 陈辰, 麦博儒, 孙丽颖, 江铭诺, 邓若钊, 查进林, 符传博. 多尺度视角下广东臭氧时空分异特征及驱动因素[J]. 中国环境科学, 2024, 44(7): 3601-3614. YU Rui, BU Qiao-li, CHEN Chen, MAI Bo-ru, SUN Li-ying, JIANG Ming-nuo, DENG Ruo-zhao, ZHA Jin-lin, FU Chuan-bo. Spatiotemporal variation characteristics and driving factors of near-surface ozone in Guangdong province from a multi-scale perspective. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(7): 3601-3614.

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