Impact of plastic circular package on the plastic pollution in typical regions
LIU Xue-wei1, LEI Ting-zhou1,2, BAI Jing-jing3, LOU Zi-yang4, HAN Yi-shi1, MA Wen-chao1,3
1. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China; 2. Institute of Urban & Rural Mining, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213164, China; 3. Key Laboratory of Agro-Forestry Environmental Processes and Ecological Regulation of Hainan Province, College of Ecology and Environment, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China; 4. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China
摘要 This study provides an overview of plastic use, waste, and environmental leakage to 2060. The role of plastic policy scenario implementation (curbing industry demand, enhancing recycling, and reducing the mismanagement rate) in mitigating plastic pollution is illuminated. The research found that if the plastic industry continued as it is, it would remain unsustainable. Environmental leakage of plastic would be expected to double by 2060 compared to 2022. Implementing plastic policies could limit the global growth trend in plastic use and waste (nearly 23% reduction), improve the recyclability of plastic (2060: recycling, +30%), and reduce the environmental leakage of plastic (2060: mismanagement, -15%). The policies consider several scenarios, all of which would contribute to the reduction of mismanaged waste, with a 64.09% reduction in plastic leaking into the environment project. Policy scenarios make the relative decoupling between the environmental leakage and the use of plastic, which conveys that the environmental leakage of plastic will no longer be directly affected by usage. Future policy construction can turn towards strengthening recycling and disposal structure management to achieve sustainable development.
Abstract:This study provides an overview of plastic use, waste, and environmental leakage to 2060. The role of plastic policy scenario implementation (curbing industry demand, enhancing recycling, and reducing the mismanagement rate) in mitigating plastic pollution is illuminated. The research found that if the plastic industry continued as it is, it would remain unsustainable. Environmental leakage of plastic would be expected to double by 2060 compared to 2022. Implementing plastic policies could limit the global growth trend in plastic use and waste (nearly 23% reduction), improve the recyclability of plastic (2060: recycling, +30%), and reduce the environmental leakage of plastic (2060: mismanagement, -15%). The policies consider several scenarios, all of which would contribute to the reduction of mismanaged waste, with a 64.09% reduction in plastic leaking into the environment project. Policy scenarios make the relative decoupling between the environmental leakage and the use of plastic, which conveys that the environmental leakage of plastic will no longer be directly affected by usage. Future policy construction can turn towards strengthening recycling and disposal structure management to achieve sustainable development.
刘雪薇, 雷廷宙, 白晶晶, 楼紫阳, 韩一石, 马文超. 塑料循环一揽子计划对典型区域塑料污染的影响[J]. 中国环境科学, 2024, 44(11): 6221-6227.
LIU Xue-wei, LEI Ting-zhou, BAI Jing-jing, LOU Zi-yang, HAN Yi-shi, MA Wen-chao. Impact of plastic circular package on the plastic pollution in typical regions. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(11): 6221-6227.
[1] Macleod M, Arp H P H, Tekman M B, et al. The global threat from plastic pollution [J]. Science, 2021,373(6550):61-65. [2] Bachmann M, Zibunas C, Hartmann J, et al. Towards circular plastics within planetary boundaries [J]. Nature Sustainability, 2023,6:1-12. [3] OECD. Global plastics outlook: Economic drivers, environmental impacts and policy options [Z]. [2023-12-22]. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/global-plastics-outlook_de74 7aef-en. [4] Kaza S, Yao L C, Bhada-Tata P, et al. What a Waste 2.0: A global snapshot of solid waste management to 2050 [Z]. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018[2023-10-19]. https://openkno wledge.worldbank. org/handle/10986/30317. [5] Meys R, Kätelhön A, Bachmann M, et al. Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emission plastics by a circular carbon economy [J]. Science, 2021,374(6563):71-76. [6] Geyer R, Jambeck J R, Law K L. Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made [J]. Science Advances, 2017, 3(7):1700782. [7] UNEP. Towards a pollution-free planet: background report [Z]. https://www.unep.org/resources/report/towards-pollution-free-planet-background-report. [8] Stegmann P, Daioglou V, Londo M, et al. Plastic futures and their CO2 emissions [J]. Nature, 2022,612(7939):272-276. [9] 耿晓梦,赵由才,夏 旻,等.存余垃圾中废旧塑料性能演变及资源转化探讨 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2021,41(1):273-278. Geng X M, Zhao Y C, Xia W, et al. Evolution of properties and resource conversion of waste plastics in stockpile waste [J]. China Environmental Science, 2021,41(1):273-278. [10] World Bank. World Development Report 2022: Finance for an equitable recovery [Z]. [2023-02-06]. http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-1730-4. [11] UNEP. Policy options to eliminate additional marine plastic litter [R]. UNEP. 2021 [2021-7-13]. https://www.unep.org/resources/public-cation/policy-options-eliminate-additional-marine-plastic-litter. [12] Smith E, Bilec M M, Khanna V. Evaluating the global plastic waste management system with Markov chain material flow analysis [J]. ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering, 2023,11(6):2055-2065. [13] Lade S J, Steffen W, Vries W, et al. Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions [J]. Nature Sustainability, 2020,3(2):119-128. [14] OECD. Towards eliminating plastic pollution by 2040 [Z]. [2023-12-21]. https://www.oecd.org/environment/plastics/Interim-Findings-Towards-Eliminating-Plastic-Pollution-by-2040-Policy-Scenario-Analysis. [15] SDG. OECD Outlines Policy scenarios with respect to ending plastic pollution [Z]. [2023-11-29]. https://sdg.iisd.org/news/oecd-outlines-policy-scenarios-with-respect-to-ending-plastic-pollution/. [16] Drewniok M P, Gao Y, Cullen J M, et al. What to do about plastics? Environmental Science & Technology, 2023,57(11):4513-4521. [17] Our World in Data. Global plastics production [Z]. [2023-12-23]. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-plastics-production. [18] 杨艳艳,李世平,谢丹平,等.废塑料再生利用二次污染特征及暴露风险 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2023,43(9):4926-4933. Yang Y Y, Li S P, Xie D P, et al. Characteristics of secondary pollution and exposure risk of recycling waste plastics [J]. China Environmental Science, 2023,43(9):4926-4933. [19] World Bank Open Data. Data [EB/OL]. [2023-12-24]. https://data.worldbank.org.cn/. [20] Ritchie H, Samborska V, Roser M. Plastic pollution [Z]. [2023-12-27]. https://ourworldindata.org/plastic-pollution. [21] 韩石磊,张付申.废弃生物可降解塑料的处理方法与发展趋势 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2023,43(12):6445-6464. Han S L, Zhang F S. Treatment methods and development trend of waste biodegradable plastics [J]. China Environmental Science, 2023, 43(12):6445-6464. [22] OECD. Global plastic outlook [Z]. Organisation for economic co-operation and development. [2023-12-22]. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/data/global-plastic-outlook_c0821f81-en. [23] EUR-Lex. Directive (EU) 2019/904 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 5 June 2019 on the reduction of the impact of certain plastic products on the environment [J]. European Commission, 2019, 155(12):61-19. [24] OECD. Effective Carbon Rates 2023: Pricing greenhouse gas emissions through taxes and emissions trading [Z]. [2023-12-24]. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/taxation/effective-carbon-rates-2023_b84d5b36-en. [25] Faisal F, Rasul M G, Jahirul M I, et al. Pyrolytic conversion of waste plastics to energy products: A review on yields, properties, and production costs [J]. Science of The Total Environment, 2023,861 (25):160721. [26] Jambeck J R, Geyer R, Wilcox C, et al. Plastic waste inputs from land into the ocean [J]. Science, 2015,347(6223):768-771. [27] Huang F, Liu D, An T, et al. Port container throughput forecast based on abc optimized bp neural network [J]. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2020,571(1):012068. [28] 李 欢,史文卓,王菲菲,等.关于“禁/限塑令”助力解决海洋塑料垃圾问题的思考与建议 [J]. 环境保护, 2020,48(23):9-18. Li H, Shi W Z, Wang F F, et al. Reflections and suggestions on the contribution of the “plastic ban/restriction” to solving the problem of marine plastic litter [J]. Environmental Protection, 2020,48(23):9-18. [29] World Economic Forum. The new plastics economy: Rethinking the future of plastics [Z]. WEF. 2016 [2016-1-19]. https://www.weforum.org/publications/the-new-plastics-economy-rethinking-the-future-of-plastics/. [30] 宋天文,陈 曲,段杉杉,等.中国近岸区域微塑料污染的研究进展 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2024,44(3):1657-1670. Song T W, Chen Q, Duan B B, et al. Progress of microplastic pollution in China's nearshore areas [J]. China Environmental Science, 2024, 44(3):1657-1670. [31] 王佳佳,赵娜娜,李金惠.中国海洋微塑料污染现状与防治建议 [J]. 中国环境科学, 2019,39(7):3056-3063. Wang J J, Zhao N N, Li J H, et al. Marine microplastic pollution in China and recommendations for prevention [J]. China Environmental Science, 2019,39(7):3056-3063. [32] 康爱林.中国塑料污染管控政策环境影响评价研究 [D]. 济南:山东大学, 2022. Kang A L. Study on the environmental impact assessment of plastic pollution control policies in China [D]. Jinan: Shandong University, 2022.