省际贸易含大气污染物转移特征及驱动力分析

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摘要利用多区域投入产出模型,阐明2012~2017年中国省际贸易隐含污染物排放的时空演变格局,结合结构分解分析从能源相关角度识别影响污染物排放变动的社会经济因素.研究发现,污染物净出口地区逐渐从东部沿海经济发达地区转向西北方资源丰富区,并且省份之间污染物的净进出口量差距在减少,以SO₂为例,2012~2017年差距减小了63%.此外,最终需求水平的上升是排放增长的主要驱动力,研究期间对4种大气污染物排放的平均贡献率可达669%;能源消费结构优化与单位GDP能耗降低有效遏制了排放增长的势头,能源消费结构对4种污染物的平均贡献率从-220.75%降低到-546.25%;生产技术影响小,但其对排放的影响由促进转为抑制.本文为提高能源效率和发展清洁能源结构提供新见解,有助于制定缓解需求侧污染物排放措施,协调地区贸易政策.

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	陆轩慧
	金轩怡
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关键词 ：省际贸易, 大气污染, MRIO模型, 结构分解分析

Abstract：This paper employed the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) to clarify the spatial and temporal evolution of the embodied pollutant emission patterns in China's interprovincial trade in 2012, 2015, and 2017. The structural decomposition analysis (SDA) model was applied to identify the socio-economic factors affecting the changes in pollutant emissions. The results showed that the areas with net pollutant export gradually shifted from those which have developed economic on the east coast to those have rich resources in the northwest.Moreover, the gap between provinces in net imports and exports of pollutants decreased. For example, the gap in SO₂ from 2012 to 2017 reduced by 63%. In addition, the increase of final demand was the main driver of the increase of emissions, with an average contribution of up to 669% to the emissions of the four air pollutants. The optimization of the energy consumption structure and the reduction of energy consumption per unit of GDP effectively curbed the momentum of emissions increase. The average contribution of the energy consumption structure to the four pollutants decreased from -220.75% to -546.25%. Although the impact of production technologies is minor, its impact on emissions has shifted from a facilitating to a dampening effect. This study provides new insights for improving energy efficiency and developing a clean energy mix, which contributes to developing measures to mitigate demand-side pollutant emissions and coordinated regional trade policies.

Key words： interprovincial trade air pollution MRIO model structural decomposition analysis

收稿日期: 2024-07-10

PACS:

X32

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(72174029);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目

通讯作者: 房德琳,副教授,fangd@bnu.edu.cn E-mail: fangd@bnu.edu.cn

作者简介: 陆轩慧(2002-),男,北京师范大学地理科学学部本科毕业生.202011998045@mail.bnu.edu.cn.

引用本文:

陆轩慧, 金轩怡, 房德琳. 省际贸易含大气污染物转移特征及驱动力分析[J]. 中国环境科学, 2025, 45(2): 1148-1161. LU Xuan-hui, JIN Xuan-yi, FANG De-lin. Analysis of implicit air pollutant transfer and drivers of interprovincial trade in China. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2025, 45(2): 1148-1161.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2025/V45/I2/1148

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