居民食物消费变化引致的环境足迹测算

摘要
图/表
参考文献
相关文章 (15)

全文: PDF (649 KB) HTML (1 KB)
输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

摘要首先对比分析了2014~2020年城乡居民食物消费结构的变化特征,其次测算了人口规模、城镇化率、人均食物消费量和食物消费结构变化对土地-水-碳足迹变化的影响程度,最后设计了食物现状消费结构S0、发展消费结构S1和更趋近膳食指南的最优消费结构S2三种情景,测算了2025年和2030年3种情景下居民食物消费引致的环境足迹.结果表明:人均食物消费量和消费结构逐渐成为影响环境足迹的主要因素,2018~2020年城镇(农村)居民人均食物消费量和消费结构对环境足迹的平均贡献率分别为51.1%(51.6%)和-17.4%(-13.1%); S1和S2下居民食物消费引致的环境足迹均小于在S0下的值.在S2下环境足迹的减少更明显. 在2025年城镇(农村)居民在S2下食物消费引致的土地、水、碳足迹比在S0下减少10.5%(11.5%)、19.6%(17.2%)、12.6%(13.7%);在2030年将减少11.6%(11.9%)、21.0%(16.8%)、13.6%(14.7%).基于分析结果,提出了如何减少食物消费引致的环境足迹的建议.

	服务

	把本文推荐给朋友
	加入我的书架
	加入引用管理器
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	作者相关文章
	窦羽星
	刘秀丽

关键词 ：土地-水-碳足迹, 结构分解分析法, 食物消费结构

Abstract：This paper first compared and analyzed the changing characteristics of urban and rural residents' food consumption from 2014 to 2020, then calculated the contributions of population size, urbanization rate, per capita food consumption volume, and food consumption structure to the environmental footprints. Finally, we designed three scenarios: the current food consumption structure S0, the developing consumption structure S1, and the optimal consumption structure S2, closer to the dietary guideline in 2022 for Chinese residents, to measure the environmental footprints led by residents' food consumption in 2025 and 2030. The results show that the per capita food consumption volume and dietary structure have gradually become the main factors affecting the environmental footprints. The average contribution of per capita food consumption volume and consumption structure of urban (rural) residents to the environmental footprints in 2018~2020 was 51.1% (51.6%) and -17.4% (-13.1%) in China. The environmental footprints caused by the changes in residents' food consumption in S1and S2 would be lower than those in S0, and the differences would be more evident in S2. Compared with the environmental footprints in S0, the land, water, and carbon footprints caused by urban (rural) residents' food consumption in S2 would drop 10.5% (11.5%), 19.6% (17.2%), 12.6% (13.7%) respectively in 2025, those would reduce 11.6% (11.9%), 21.0% (16.8%), 13.6% (14.7%) in 2030 respectively. Based on the analysis of the results, we suggested practical ways to reduce the environmental footprints caused by food consumption.

Key words： land-water-carbon footprints structural decomposition analysis food consumption structure

收稿日期: 2022-05-10

PACS:

X24

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(71874184)

通讯作者: 刘秀丽,研究员,xiuli.liu@amss.ac.cn E-mail: xiuli.liu@amss.ac.cn

作者简介: 窦羽星(1998-),女,陕西渭南人,博士研究生,主要从事宏观经济-资源-环境-人口系统建模与预测的研究.发表论文2篇.

引用本文:

窦羽星, 刘秀丽. 居民食物消费变化引致的环境足迹测算[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(1): 446-455. DOU Yu-xing, LIU Xiu-li. Measuring the environmental footprints caused by the changes of residents' food consumption. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(1): 446-455.

链接本文:

http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2023/V43/I1/446

[1]	UN. SDG2:Zero hunger[EB/OL]. https://www.un.org/zh/chronicle/article/21068.
[2]	21财经.联合国粮农组织报告:过去30年全球粮农生产的温室气体排放量增加17%[EB/OL]. https://m.21jingji.com/article/20211109/herald/f76cd79f33da5f9977ca3a92d37167b2.html. 21Finance. Global food crop production report:17% increase in agricultural production over the past 30 years[EB/OL].
[3]	The World Bank. Agricultural land (% of land area)[EB/OL]. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.AGRI.ZS.
[4]	中华人民共和国水利部. 2020年水资源公报[EB/OL]. http://www.mwr.gov.cn/sj/tjgb/szygb/. Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China. 2020 Water resources bulletin[EB/OL]. http://www.mwr.gov.cn/sj/tjgb/szygb/.
[5]	王玲玲,戴淑芬,王琛.城镇化水平与我国居民食物消费生态足迹:变化与影响[J]. 广东财经大学学报, 2021,36(3):77-92. Wang L L, Dai S F, Wang C. On the change and effect of urbanization on the ecological footprint of residents' food consumption in China[J]. Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, 2021, 36(3):77-92.
[6]	谭莹,张俊艳.新型城镇化对我国居民食品消费结构的影响分析——基于LA/AIDS拓展模型[J]. 新疆农垦经济, 2019,(4):23-33. Tan Y, Zhang J Y. Analysis on the impact of new urbanization on the food consumption structure of Chinese residents-Based on the LA/AIDS expansion model[J]. Xinjiang State Farms Economy, 2019, (4):23-33.
[7]	IPCC. Climate Change and Land:an IPCC Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems[EB/OL]. https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/.
[8]	成升魁,董纪昌,刘秀丽,等.新时代中国国民营养与粮食安全研究中的关键科学问题——第249期"双清论坛"综述[J]. 中国科学基金, 2021,35(3):426-434. Cheng S K, Dong J C, Liu X L. Key scientific issues on nutrition and food security in China in the new era:Summary if the 249thNFSC Shuangqing Forum[J]. Bulletin of National Natural Science Foundation of China, 2021,35(3):426-434.
[9]	刘秀丽,相鑫,秦明慧,等.中长期粮食需求预测研究综述与展望[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2022,42(6):1490-1502. Liu X L, Xiang X, Qin M H, et al. A review and prospect on the medium and long-term forecasting of grain demand[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2022,42(6):1490-1502.
[10]	林永钦,齐维孩,祝琴.基于生态足迹的中国可持续食物消费模式[J]. 自然资源学报, 2019,34(2):338-347. Lin Y Q, Qi W H, Zhu Q. Chinese sustainable food consumption pattern based on ecological footprint model[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2019,34(2):338-347.
[11]	李明净.中国家庭食物消费的碳-水-生态足迹及气候变化减缓策略优化研究[D]. 大连:大连理工大学, 2016. Li M J. Study on carbon-water-ecological footprint of Chinese household consumption and diet optimization for climate change mitigation[D]. Dalian:Dalian University of Technology, 2016.
[12]	Pairotti M B, Cerutti A K, Martini F, et al. Energy consumption and GHG emission of the Mediterranean diet:a systemic assessment using a hybrid LCA-IO method[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015, 103:507-516.
[13]	Aleksandrowicz L, Green R, Joy E J M, et al. The impacts of dietary change on greenhouse gas emissions, land use, water use, and health:a systematic review[J]. PloS one, 2016,11(11):e0165797.
[14]	de Ruiter H, Macdiarmid J I, Matthews R B, et al. Total global agricultural land footprint associated with UK food supply 1986~2011[J]. Global environmental change, 2017,43:72-81.
[15]	Tilman D, Clark M. Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health[J]. Nature, 2014,515(7528):518-522.
[16]	Kastner T, Rivas M J I, Koch W, et al. Global changes in diets and the consequences for land requirements for food[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2012,109(18):6868-6872.
[17]	Alexander P, Rounsevell M D A, Dislich C, et al. Drivers for global agricultural land use change:The nexus of diet, population, yield and bioenergy[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2015,35:138-147.
[18]	郑翔益,孙思奥,鲍超.中国城乡居民食物消费水足迹变化及影响因素[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2019,33(1):17-22. Zheng X Y, Sun S A, Bao C. Urban and rural footprints for food consumption in China and governing factor analysis[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2019,33(1):17-22.
[19]	江文曲,李晓云,刘楚杰,等.城乡居民膳食结构变化对中国水资源需求的影响——基于营养均衡的视角[J]. 资源科学, 2021,43(8):1662-1674. Jiang W Q, Li X Y, Liu C J, et al. Impact of residents' diet changes on water resource demand in China:From the perspective of nutritional balance[J]. Resources Science, 2021,43(8):1662-1674.
[20]	高晶.中国城乡居民食物消费碳排放研究[D]. 兰州:兰州大学, 2018. Gao J. A preliminary analysis of food carbon emission in China[D]. Lanzhou:Lanzhou University, 2018.
[21]	李建伟,周灵灵.中国人口政策与人口结构及其未来发展趋势[J]. 经济学动态, 2018,(12):17-36. Li J W, Zhou L L. China's population policy and the population structure and its future development trend[J]. Economic Perspectives, 2018,(12):17-36.
[22]	刘庆,刘秀丽,汪寿阳.基于合理膳食结构的2020~2050年我国食物用粮需求测算[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2018,38(3):615-622. Liu Q, Liu X L, Wang S Y. Estimating China's food grains demand from 2020 to 2050 based on reasonable dietary pattern[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2018,38(3):615-622.
[23]	Song G, Li M, Semakula H M, et al. Food consumption and waste and the embedded carbon, water and ecological footprints of households in China[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2015,529:191-197.
[24]	曹淑艳,谢高地,陈文辉,等.中国主要农产品生产的生态足迹研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2014,29(8):1336-1344. Cao S Y, Xie G D, Chen W H, et al. Ecological footprint of raw and derived agriculture products[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014, 29(8):1336-1344.
[25]	Chapagain A K, Hoekstra A Y. Virtual water flows between nations in relation to trade in livestock and livestock products[C]. Delft:The Netherlands:UNESCO-IHE, 2003.
[26]	Chapagain A K, Hoekstra A Y. Virtual water trade:A quantification of virtual water flows between nations in relation to international trade of livestock and livestock products[C]. Delft:UNESCO-IHE, 2003.
[27]	Xue L, Liu X, Lu S, et al. China's food loss and waste embodies increasing environmental impacts[J]. Nature Food, 2021,2(7):519-528.
[28]	王益文,胡浩.我国城乡居民肉类消费的碳排放特征分析——基于过程生命周期理论[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2014,42(13):4125-4128, 4132. Wang Y W, Hu H. Greenhouse gases emission of urban-rural residents in meat consumption-based on the life cycle approach[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2014,42(13):4125-4128,4132.
[29]	张丹.中国粮食作物碳足迹及减排对策分析[D]. 北京:中国农业大学, 2017. Zhang D. Carbon footprint and low carbon strategy for grain production in China[D]. Beijing:China Agricultural University, 2017.
[30]	Zhang H, Xu Y, Lahr M L. The greenhouse gas footprints of China's food production and consumption (1987~2017)[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2022,301:113934.
[31]	Bleischwitz, R. et al. Resource nexus perspectives towards the United Nations sustainable development goals[J]. Nature sustainability, 2018,1:737-743.
[32]	国家统计局.中国统计年鉴2021[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2021. National Bureau of Statistics. China statistical yearbook 2021[M]. Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2021.
[33]	国家发展和改革委员会价格司.全国农产品成本收益汇编2021[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2021. Price Division, National Development and Reform Commission. National agricultural product revenue compilation 2021[M]. Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2021.
[34]	Ang B W. The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis:a practical guide[J]. Energy policy, 2005,33(7):867-871.
[35]	Dietzenbacher E, Los B. Structural decomposition analyses with dependent determinants[J]. Economic Systems Research, 2000,12(4):497-514.
[36]	Lin X, Polenske K R. Input-output anatomy of China's energy use changes in the 1980s[J]. Economic Systems Research, 1995,7(1):67-84.
[37]	夏炎,陈锡康,杨翠红.关于结构分解技术中两种分解方法的比较研究[J]. 运筹与管理, 2010,19(5):27-33. Xia Y, Chen X K, Yang C H. Comparative research of two decomposition methods in structure decomposition analysis[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2010,19(5):27-33.
[38]	Gouel C, Guimbard H. Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2019, 101(2):383-403.
[39]	Zheng Z, Henneberry S R, Zhao Y, et al. Predicting the changes in the structure of food demand in China[J]. Agribusiness, 2019,35(3):301-328.
[40]	中华人民共和国农业农村部.关于印发《全国农业可持续发展规划(2015-2030年)》的通知[EB/OL]. https://www.moa.gov.cn/ztzl/mywrfz/gzgh/201509/t20150914_4827900.htm. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People's Republic of China. Notice on printing and distributing the National Agricultural Sustainable Development Plan (2015-2030)[EB/OL].
[41]	王迪,和维,聂锐.中国2030年CO2排放情景预测与减排潜力分析[J]. 系统工程学报, 2019,34(6):721-735. Wang D, He W, Nie R. China's CO2emission scenario prediction and emission reduction potential analysis in 2030[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering, 2019,34(6):721-735.
[42]	王勇,王颖.中国实现碳减排双控目标的可行性及最优路径——能源结构优化的视角[J]. 中国环境科学, 2019,39(10):4444- 4455. Wang Y, Wang Y. Feasibility and optimal pathway of China's double targets for carbon reduction-The perspective of energy structure optimization[J]. China Environmental Science, 2019,39(10):4444- 4455.
[43]	蔡博峰,曹丽斌,雷宇,等.中国碳中和目标下的二氧化碳排放路径[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2021,31(1):7-14. Cai B F, Cao L B, Lei Y, et al. China's carbon emission pathway under the carbon neutrality target[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2021,31(1):7-14.
[44]	Xu G, Schwarz P, Yang H. Adjusting energy consumption structure to achieve China's CO2 emissions peak[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2020,122:109737.
[45]	Xie Y, Liu X, Chen Q, et al. An integrated assessment for achieving the 2C target pathway in China by 2030[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2020,268:122238.
[46]	FAO. Emissions shares[EB/OL]. https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/EM.
[47]	刘庆,刘秀丽.生育政策调整背景下2018~2100年中国人口规模与结构预测研究[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2018,48(8):180-188. Liu Q, Liu X L. Forecasting on China's population size and structure during 2018-2100with the background of family planning policy adjustment[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2018,48(8):180-188.
[48]	中国社会科学院.人口与劳动绿皮书:中国人口与劳动问题报告No.22[M]. 北京:社会科学文献出版社, 2021. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Green paper on population and labor:Report on China's population and labor issues No.22[M]. Beijing:Social Sciences Academic Press, 2021.
[49]	中国营养学会.中国居民膳食指南2022[M].北京:人民卫生出版社, 2022. Chinese Nutrition Society. Scientific Research Report on Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents 2022[M]. Beijing:People's Medical Publishing House, 2022.
[50]	姜松强,陈彦哲,朱慧丽.郑州市居民对膳食指南知晓率及影响因素分析[J]. 营养学报, 2020,42(3):308-309,312. Jiang S Q, Chen Y Z, Zhu H L. Awareness of dietary guidelines among residents in Zhengzhou and the influencing factors[J]. Acta Nutrimenta Sinica, 2020,42(3):308-309,312.
[51]	Arrieta E M, Gonzalez A D. Impact of current, national dietary guidelines and alternative diets on greenhouse gas emissions in Argentina[J]. Food Policy, 2018,79:58-66.
[52]	Maire J, Sattar A, Henry R, et al. How different COVID-19 recovery paths affect human health, environmental sustainability, and food affordability:a modelling study[J]. The Lancet Planetary Health, 2022, 6(7):e565-e576.
[53]	Gibin D, Simonetto A, Zanini B, et al. A framework assessing the footprints of food consumption. An application on water footprint in Europe[J]. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 2022,93:106735.