1948~2016年全球主要气象要素演变特征

宁忠瑞; 张建云; 王国庆

PDF(4459 KB)

中国环境科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (9) : 4085-4095.

大气污染与控制

1948~2016年全球主要气象要素演变特征

宁忠瑞^1,2,3, 张建云^2,3,4, 王国庆^1,2,3,4

作者信息 +

Variation and global pattern of major meteorological elements during 1948~2016

NING Zhong-rui^1,2,3, ZHANG Jian-yun^2,3,4, WANG Guo-qing^1,2,3,4

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

采用M-K趋势检验与R/S分析法，探究了近70a全球全年及各季节的降水、气温、蒸发量的演变特征与空间分布格局.研究发现：（1）1948~2016年间，全球72.7%地区的降水呈现出非显著的上升或下降趋势，全球总降水量呈现上升趋势，趋势率为1.9mm/10a；全球气温呈现显著性、持续的上升趋势，趋势率为0.23℃/10a，1980年后气温上升速率变快；1980~2016年间全球蒸发量在大部分地区呈现上升趋势，总蒸发量的变化趋势率为8.2mm/10a；Hurst指数显示气温与蒸发变化的持续性明显大于降水量的变化；（2）降水量在北半球高纬地区多呈现出非常显著的增加趋势，在低纬度地区多呈现波动或下降趋势，且在12月~次年5月（DJF、MAM）的上升趋势的显著性普遍高于其他两个季节；气温在DJF和MAM的上升趋势相对微弱，中高纬地区呈现非显著性的变化趋势，亚洲中部部分地区在JJA呈现出显著性的下降趋势；蒸发量在沿海湿润地区的上升趋势显著，美洲北部在DJF呈现出显著下降的趋势，格陵兰岛、尼罗河流域在一年四季均为下降趋势；（3）各大洲的气温在1948~2016年均呈现出显著的上升趋势，其中北美洲的平均上升率最高；降水除非洲外均为上升趋势，非洲地区的降水量呈现出下降趋势，南美洲降水呈现出3个阶段的下降趋势；各大洲的蒸发量均呈现上升趋势，其中欧洲的平均上升率最高；除大洋洲外，各大洲降水量的上升速率低于蒸发量的上升速率.

Abstract

The variation and global distribution of precipitation, temperature and evaporation over 70years were investigated by using Mann Kendall test and R/S analysis. The results showed that:(1) During 1948~2016, the precipitation in 72.7% regions showed an insignificant increasing or decreasing trend, and the global precipitation presented an increasing trend with a rate of 1.9mm/10a. Global temperature showed a significant and persistent upward trend with a rate of 0.23℃/10a, and the increasing speed of the trend was found after 1980. During 1980~2016, the evaporation in most regions displayed an insignificant increasing trend and the rate of trend is 8.2mm/10a. The Hurst Index showed the persistent behavior of temperature and evaporation was significantly greater than that of precipitation; (2) Precipitation showed a significant upward trend in many high latitude areas in the northern hemisphere, while in low latitude area presented a fluctuation or downward trend. The significance level for increasing rate for precipitation in DJF and MAM was higher than that of in other seasons while the level for temperature was weaker. Evaporation displays an upward trend in many coastal regions, and in northern America showed a downward trend in DJF, in Greenland and Nile river basin there were decreasing trend in all year round. (3) Temperature in all continents showed a significant increasing trend during 1948 to 2016, and North America had the highest increasing rate among them. Precipitation presented an increasing trend with exception of Africa, while in Africa there was a decreasing trend and in South America there was a downward trend with three stages. Evaporation in all continents showed a significant increasing trend and Europe has the highest increasing rate among them. Comparing with the rate of precipitation, increasing rate for evaporation in all continents were higher except Oceania.

导出引用

宁忠瑞, 张建云, 王国庆. 1948~2016年全球主要气象要素演变特征[J]. 中国环境科学. 2021, 41(9): 4085-4095

NING Zhong-rui, ZHANG Jian-yun, WANG Guo-qing. Variation and global pattern of major meteorological elements during 1948~2016[J]. China Environmental Science. 2021, 41(9): 4085-4095

中图分类号： X16

参考文献

[1] 段青云,夏军,缪驰远,等.全球气候模式中气候变化预测预估的不确定性[J]. 自然杂志, 2016,38(3):182-188.Duan Q Y, Xia J, Miao C Y, et al. The uncertainty in climate change projections by global climate models. Chinese Journal of Nature, 2016,38(3):182-188.
[2] 夏军,刘春蓁,任国玉.气候变化对我国水资源影响研究面临的机遇与挑战[J]. 地球科学进展, 2011,26(1):1-12.Xia J, Liu C Z, Ren G Y. Opportunity and challenge of the climate change impact on the water resource of China[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2011,26(1):1-12.
[3] Wang J, Xu C, Hu M, et al. Global land surface air temperature dynamics since 1880[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2018, 38:e466-e474.
[4] Ipcc. Climate change 2013:The physical science basis[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2013.
[5] Abolverdi J, Ferdosifar G, Khalili D, et al. Recent trends in regional air temperature and precipitation and links to global climate change in the Maharlo watershed, Southwestern Iran[J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics. 2014,126(3/4):177-192.
[6] Sun Q, Miao C, Duan Q, et al. Would the 'real observed dataset stand up? A critical examination of eight observed gridded climate datasets for China[J]. Environmental research letters, 2014,9(1):15001.
[7] Sun Q, Kong D, Miao C, et al. Variations in global temperature and precipitation for the period of 1948 to 2010[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2014,186(9):5663-5679.
[8] Gu G, Adler R F. Spatial patterns of global precipitation change and variability during 1901~2010[J]. Journal of Climate, 2015,28(11):4431-4453.
[9] Nilawar A P, Waikar M L. Impacts of climate change on streamflow and sediment concentration under RCP 4.5and 8.5:A case study in Purna river basin, India[J]. Science of The Total Environment, 2019, 650:2685-2696.
[10] 张建云,王国庆.气候变化对水文水资源影响研究[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2007.Zhang J Y, Wang G Q. Impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2007.
[11] 严中伟,丁一汇,翟盘茂,等.近百年中国气候变暖趋势之再评估[J]. 气象学报, 2020,78(3):370-378.Yan Z W, Ding Y H, Zhai P M, et al. Re-assessing climatic warming in China since the last century[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2020, 78(3):370-378.
[12] 满文敏,左萌.CMIP6火山强迫的气候响应模拟比较计划(VolMIP)概况与评述[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019,15(5):526-532.Man W M, Zuo M. Short commentary on CMIP6 Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP)[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019,15(5):526-532.
[13] Cohen J, Screen J A, Furtado J C, et al. Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2014,7(9):627-637.
[14] Li X, Zhang K, Gu P, et al. Changes in precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River Basin during 1960~2019 and the association with global warming, ENSO, and local effects[J]. Science of The Total Environment. 2020,760:144244.
[15] Mohammadi K, Goudarzi N. Study of inter-correlations of solar radiation, wind speed and precipitation under the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in California[J]. Renewable Energy, 2018,120:190-200.
[16] 梁苏洁,赵南,丁一汇.北极涛动主模态下北极冷空气的优势路径和影响地区的研究[J]. 地球物理学报, 2019,62(1):19-31.Liang S J, Zhao N, Ding Y H. Dominant trajectories and influenced regions of the near-surface cold air in the Arctic during positive and negative AO/NAM events[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 2019, 62(1):19-31.
[17] 龚道溢,王绍武.近百年北极涛动对中国冬季气候的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2003,58(4):559-568.Gong D Y, Wang S W. Influence of Arctic Oscillation on winter climate over China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003,58(4):559-568.
[18] Pascale S, Boos W R, Bordoni S, et al. Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2017,7(11):806-812.
[19] 刘芸芸,丁一汇.2020年超强梅雨特征及其成因分析[J]. 气象, 2020,46(11):1393-1404.Liu Y Y, Ding Y H. Characteristics and possible causes for the extreme meiyu in 2020[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2020,46(11):1393-1404.
[20] Gilliland J M, Keim B D. Surface wind speed:trend and climatology of Brazil from 1980~2014[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2018,38(2):1060-1073.
[21] Li Z, Chen Y, Shen Y, et al. Analysis of changing pan evaporation in the arid region of Northwest China[J]. Water Resources Research, 2013,49(4):2205-2212.
[22] Chen Y, Li Z, Fan Y, et al. Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China[J]. Environmental Research, 2015,139:11-19.
[23] Bao Z, Zhang J, Wang G, et al. The impact of climate variability and land use/cover change on the water balance in the Middle Yellow River Basin, China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2019,577:123942.
[24] 严小林,张建云,鲍振鑫,等.海河流域近500年旱涝演变规律分析[J]. 水利水运工程学报, 2020,2020(4):17-23.Yan X L, Zhang J Y, Bao Z X, et al. Evolution of drought and flood in the Haihe Rvier Basin for the last 500 years[J]. Hudro-Science and Engineering, 2020,2020(4):17-23.
[25] 刘静,龙爱华,李江,等.近60年塔里木河三源流径流演变规律与趋势分析[J]. 水利水电技术, 2019,50(12):10-17.Liu J, Long A H, Li J, et al. Analysis on runoff evolution laws and trends of three source-streams of Tarim River in recent 60years. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2019,50(12):10-17.
[26] Lee J, Lee E, Seol K. Validation of integrated multisatellitE retrievals for GPM (IMERG) by using gauge-based analysis products of daily precipitation over East Asia[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2019,137(3/4):2497-2512.
[27] Prakash S, Gairola R M, Mitra A K. Comparison of large-scale global land precipitation from multisatellite and reanalysis products with gauge-based GPCC data sets[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2015,121(1/2):303-317.
[28] 王丹,王爱慧.1901~2013年GPCC和CRU降水资料在中国大陆的适用性评估[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2017,22(4):446-462.Wang D, Wang A H. Applicability assessment of GPCC and CRU precipitation products in China during 1901 to 2013[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2017,22(4):446-462.
[29] Sun Q, Miao C, Duan Q, et al. A review of global precipitation data sets:Data sources, estimation, and intercomparisons[J]. Reviews of Geophysics. 2018,56(1):79-107.
[30] Fan Y, van den Dool H. A global monthly land surface air temperature analysis for 1948-present[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2008, 113(D1).
[31] Tarek M, Brissette F P, Arsenault R. Large-scale analysis of global gridded precipitation and temperature datasets for climate change impact studies[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2020,21(11):2623-2640.
[32] 任立良,卫林勇,江善虎,等.CHIRPS和GLEAM卫星产品在中国的干旱监测效用评估[J]. 农业工程学报, 2019,35(15):146-154.Ren L L, Wei L Y, Jiang S H, et al. Drought monitoring utility assessment of CHIRPS and GLEAM satellite products in China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2019,35(15):146-154.
[33] Guan X, Zhang J, Elmahdi A, et al. The capacity of the hydrological modeling for water resource assessment under the changing environment in semi-arid river basins in China[J]. Water, 2019, 11(7):1328.
[34] 姜瑶,徐宗学,王静.基于年径流序列的五种趋势检测方法性能对比[J]. 水利学报, 2020,51(7):845-857.Jiang Y, Xu Z X, Wang J. Comparison among five methods of trend detection for annual runoff series[J]. J Hydraul Eng, 2020,51(7):845-857.
[35] 王乐扬,李清洲,王金星,等.变化环境下近60年来中国北方江河实测径流量及其年内分配变化特征[J]. 华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版), 2020,41(2):36-42.Wang L Y, Li Q Z, Wang J X, et al. The variation characteristics of recorded runoff and its annual distribution in North China during the recent 60 years in the context of environment change[J]. Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(Natual Science Edition), 2020,41(2):36-42.
[36] Huang H, Zhang B, Cui Y, et al. Analysis on the characteristics of dry and wet periods in The Yangtze River Basin[J]. Water, 2020, 12(11):2960.
[37] Bekryaev R V, Polyakov I V, Alexeev V A. Role of polar amplification in long-term surface air temperature variations and modern Arctic warming[J]. Journal of Climate, 2010,23(14):3888-3906.
[38] Rapaić M, Brown R, Markovic M, et al. An evaluation of temperature and precipitation surface-based and reanalysis datasets for the Canadian Arctic, 1950~2010[J]. Atmosphere-ocean, 2015,53(3):283-303.
[39] Lüdecke H, Cina R, Dammschneider H, et al. Decadal and multidecadal natural variability in European temperature[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2020,205:105294.
[40] Montaldo N, Sarigu A. Potential links between the North Atlantic Oscillation and decreasing precipitation and runoff on a Mediterranean area[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2017,553:419-437.
[41] Hurrell J W, VAN Loon H. Decadal variations in climate associated with the north atlantic oscillation[J]. Climatic Change, 1997,36(3):301-326.
[42] Hao Z, Zhang X, Singh V P, et al. Joint modeling of precipitation and temperature under influences of El Niño Southern Oscillation for compound event evaluation and prediction[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2020,245:105090.
[43] Hao Y, Hao Z, Feng S, et al. Response of vegetation to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) via compound dry and hot events in southern Africa[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2020,195:103358.
[44] Matthew O J, Ayoola M A. Seasonality of wind speed, wind shears and precipitation over West Africa[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2020,207:105371.
[45] Linden R, Knippertz P, Fink A H, et al. The influence of DACCIWA radiosonde data on the quality of ECMWF analyses and forecasts over southern West Africa[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2020,146(729):1719-1739.
[46] Crowley T J. Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years[J]. Science, 2000,289(5477):270-277.
[47] Santer B D, Bonfils C, Painter J F, et al. Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2014,7(3):185-189.
[48] Xiao D, Li J. Mechanism of stratospheric decadal abrupt cooling in the Early 1990s as influenced by the Pinatubo eruption[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin. 2011,56(8):772-780.
[49] Miralles D G, De Jeu R A M, Gash J H, et al. Magnitude and variability of land evaporation and its components at the global scale[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2011,15(3):967-981.
[50] 夏琼,王旭,窦顺,等.土体水分潜在蒸发确定方法研究进展[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018,41(4):793-801.Xia Q, Wang X, Dou S, et al. Advances on determining potential evaporation of soil moisture[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2018,41(4):793-801.
[51] Barkhordarian A, Saatchi S S, Behrangi A, et al. A recent systematic increase in vapor pressure deficit over tropical South America[J]. Scientific Reports, 2019,9(1).