鄱阳湖沉积物重金属污染影响因素分析——基于STIRPAT模型

摘要
图/表
参考文献 (0)
相关文章 (15)

全文: PDF (856 KB) HTML (1 KB)
输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

摘要为探究人类活动对鄱阳湖沉积物重金属污染的影响，于2017年10月在鄱阳湖入口、出口及湖区布设20个采样点位，开展鄱阳湖沉积物重金属表层及垂向分布特征调查，评价其潜在生态风险.利用¹³⁷Cs和²¹⁰Pb计年法推算出鄱阳湖沉积物的平均沉积速率，并结合柱状分层样品重金属含量，得出具体年代的重金属蓄积特性.基于STIRPAT模型，通过偏最小二乘回归分析得到鄱阳湖沉积物重金属演变与总人口数量、城镇化率、实际人均GDP、绿色专利申请数、第二产业占比、第三产业占比6种社会经济指标的多元非线性模型.结果表明：（1）鄱阳湖表层沉积物重金属Cu污染最为严重且生态风险程度最高，地累积指数为“强”或“中-强”污染范畴，单因子潜在生态风险指数平均值为47.25，属于“中等”生态风险.整个湖区的总潜在生态风险指数RI平均值为107.07，表明鄱阳湖表层沉积物重金属总体处于低生态危害水平.（2）1988~2017年总人口数量是影响鄱阳湖沉积物重金属Cd和Cu污染的最主要正向因素，其他正向因素为第二产业占比、第三产业占比、城镇化率及实际人均GDP，绿色专利申请数所反映出的区域绿色技术创新能力及环保研发投入对鄱阳湖沉积物重金属Cd、Cu污染具有负相关关系.

	服务

	把本文推荐给朋友
	加入我的书架
	加入引用管理器
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	作者相关文章
	王琳杰
	曾贤刚
	段存儒
	余辉
	杨媚

关键词 ：鄱阳湖, 重金属, STIRPAT模型, 影响因素, 偏最小二乘回归

Abstract：In order to explore the impact of human activities on the heavy metal pollution in the sediment of Poyang Lake, 20sampling sites were set up at the entrance, outlet and lake area of Poyang Lake in October 2017. To investigate the surface and vertical distribution characteristics of heavy metals in the sediments of Poyang Lake and evaluate their potential ecological risks. The average deposition rate of Poyang Lake sediment was calculated by ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb dating methods, and the heavy metal accumulation of specific years was obtained by combining the heavy metal content of stratified samples. Based on the STIRPAT model, the multiple nonlinear models of the evolution of heavy metals in the sediment of Poyang Lake, including the total population, urbanization rate, actual GDP per capita, number of green patent applications, the proportion of the second industry and the proportion of the third industry, were obtained by the partial least square regression analysis. The results showed that: (1) the heavy metal Cu pollution in the surface sediment of Poyang Lake was the most serious and the ecological risk degree was the highest, the land accumulation index was "strong" or "medium strong" pollution category, the average value of the single factor potential ecological risk index was 47.25, which was "medium" ecological risk. The average RI of the whole lake area was 107.07, the results showed that the heavy metals in the surface sediments of Poyang Lake were in the low level of ecological harm.(2) the total population in 1988~2017 was the most important positive factor affecting heavy metals Cd and Cu pollution in Poyang Lake sediment, other positive factors were the proportion of the secondary industry, the proportion of the tertiary industry, the urbanization rate and the actual GDP per capita. Regional green technology innovation capacity and environmental protection R & D investment, which was reflected by the number of green patent applications, had anegative correlation with the pollution of heavy metals Cd and Cu in the sediment of Poyang Lake.

Key words： Poyang Lake heavy metals STIRPAT model influencing factors partial least square regression

收稿日期: 2019-12-31

PACS:

X321

基金资助:中央高校建设世界一流大学（学科）和特色发展引导专项资金（16XNL004）

通讯作者: 曾贤刚,教授,zengxg@ruc.edu.cn E-mail: zengxg@ruc.edu.cn

作者简介: 王琳杰(1989-),女,陕西商洛人,中国人民大学博士研究生,研究方向为环境与资源经济学.发表论文8篇.

引用本文:

王琳杰, 曾贤刚, 段存儒, 余辉, 杨媚. 鄱阳湖沉积物重金属污染影响因素分析——基于STIRPAT模型[J]. 中国环境科学, 2020, 40(8): 3683-3692. WANG Lin-jie, ZENG Xian-gang, DUAN Cun-ru, YU Hui, YANG Mei. Analysis on influencing factors of heavy metal pollution in sediments of Poyang Lake based on STIRPAT Model. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(8): 3683-3692.

链接本文:

http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2020/V40/I8/3683

[1]	Dai L, Wang L, Li L, et al. Multivariate geostatistical analysis and source identification of heavy metals in the sediment of Poyang Lake in China[J]. Science of The Total Environment, 2018,621:1433-1444.
[2]	Xie Z, Jiang Y, Zhang H, et al. Assessing heavy metal contamination and ecological risk in Poyang Lake area, China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2016,75(7):549.
[3]	Wang M, Liu J, Lai J. Metals pollution and ecological risk assessment of sediments in the Poyang Lake, China[J]. Bulletin of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology, 2019,102(4):511-518.
[4]	Shahbaz M, Loganathan N, Muzaffar A T, et al. How urbanization affects CO2 emissions in Malaysia?The application of STIRPAT model[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2016,57:83-93.
[5]	Khan A Q, Saleem N, Fatima S T. Financial development, income inequality, and CO2 emissions in Asian countries using STIRPAT model[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2018,25(7):6308-6319.
[6]	李志涛,黄河清,张明庆,等.鄱阳湖流域经济增长与水环境污染关系研究[J].资源科学, 2010,32(2):267-273. Li Z T, Huang H Q, Zhang M Q, et al. Econometric analysis of the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation of the Poyang Lake Basin[J]. Resources Science, 2010,32(2):267-273.
[7]	冯绍辉.鄱阳湖流域土壤水分时空变化及差异研究[D].南京:南京大学, 2018. Feng S H. Researches on spatio-temporal variation and difference of soil moisture in Poyang Lake Basin[D]. Nanjing:Nanjing University, 2018.
[8]	史小丽,秦伯强.湖北网湖137Cs、210Pb计年与沉积速率研究[J].宁波大学学报(理工版), 2008,21(3):418-422. Shi X L, Qin B Q. Study on 137Cs and 210Pb dating and sedimentation rates of Wanghu Lake, Hubei Province[J]. Journal of Ningbo University (Natural Science & Engineering Edition), 2008,21(3):418-422.
[9]	Mǜller G. Index of geoaccumulation in sediments of theRhine River[J]. Geojournal, 1969,2:108-118.
[10]	黄国勤.江西省土壤重金属污染研究.见:2011中国环境科学学会学术年会论文集(第二卷), 2011:1731-1736. Huang G Q. Study on the heavy metal pollution of soil in Jiangxi province. In:Proceedings of the annual conference of the Chinese Academy of Environmental Science in 2011(2nd volume), 2011:1731-1736.
[11]	Hakanson L. An ecological risk index for aquatic pollution control. A sedimentological approach[J]. Water Research, 1980,14(8):975-1001.
[12]	York R, Rosa E A, Dietz T. STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT:analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts[J]. Ecological Economics, 2003,46(3):351-365.
[13]	陈操操,刘春兰,汪浩,等.北京市能源消费碳足迹影响因素分析--基于STIRPAT模型和偏小二乘模型[J].中国环境科学, 2014, 34(6):1622-1632. Chen C C, Liu C L, Wang H, et al. Examining the impact factors of energy consumption related carbon footprints using the STIRPAT model and PLS model in Beijing[J]. China Environmental Science, 2014,34(6):1622-1632.
[14]	Wold S, Ruhe A, Wold H, et al. The collinearity problem in linear regression. The partial least squares (PLS) approach to generalized inverses[J]. SIAM Journal on Scientific and Statistical Computing, 1984,5(3):735-743.
[15]	江西省统计局.江西统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 1988-2017. Statistic Bureau of Jiangxi. Jiangxi statistical yearbook[M]. Beijing:China Statistics Press, 1988-2017.
[16]	中经网统计数据库[EB/OL]. http://10.22.1.6:91/page/Default.aspx. CEInet Statistics Database[EB/OL]. http://10.22.1.6:91/page/Default.aspx.
[17]	国家知识产权局政务服务平台[EB/OL]. http://www.cnipa.gov.cn/zwfwpt/index.htm. Government affairs service platform of State Intellectual Property Office[EB/OL]. http://www.cnipa.gov.cn/zwfwpt/index.htm.
[18]	闵骞.鄱阳湖近期沉积趋势及防治[J].江西水利科技, 1988,14(1):61-63. Min Q. Recent deposit and its prevention and cure in Poyang Lake[J]. Jiangxi Hydraulic Science & Technology, 1988,14(1):61-63.
[19]	Mohiuddin K M, Zakir H M, Otomo K, et al. Geochemical distribution of trace metal pollutants in water and sediments of downstream of an urban river[J]. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 2010,7(1):17-28.
[20]	史长义,梁萌,冯斌.中国水系沉积物39种元素系列背景值[J].地球科学, 2016,41(2):234-251. Shi C Y, Liang M, Feng B. Average background values of 39 chemical elements in stream sediments of China[J]. Earth Science, 2016,41(2):234-251.
[21]	Niu Y, Niu Y, Yu H, et al. Concentration distribution and toxicity of heavy metals in surface sediment of Poyang Lake, China[J]. Wetlands, 2017:1-8.
[22]	伍恒赟,罗勇,张起明,等.鄱阳湖沉积物重金属空间分布及潜在生态风险评价[J].中国环境监测, 2014,30(6):114-119. Wu H Y, Luo Y, Zhang Q M, et al. Spatial distribution and potential ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in sediments of Poyang Lake[J]. Environmental Monitoring in China, 2014,30(6):114-119.
[23]	胡春华,李鸣,夏颖.鄱阳湖表层沉积物重金属污染特征及潜在生态风险评价[J].江西师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2011,35(4):427-430. Hu C H, Li M, Xia Y. The pollution characteristics and potential ecological risk assessmentof heavy metals in the surface sediments of Poyang Lake[J]. Journal of Jiangxi Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2011,35(4):427-430.
[24]	Tang W, Shan B, Zhang H, et al. Heavy metal contamination in the surface sediments of representative limnetic ecosystems in eastern China[J]. Scientific Reports, 2014,(4):7152.
[25]	尧志祥.江西省矿产资源开发生态效率评价研究[D].南昌:东华理工大学, 2018. Yao Z X. Research on ecological efficiency evaluation of mineral resources exploitation in Jiangxi Province[D]. Nanchang:East China University of Technology, 2018.
[26]	Ciarkowska K. Assessment of heavy metal pollution risks and enzyme activity of meadow soils in urban area under tourism load:A case study from Zakopane (Poland)[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2018,25(14):13709-13718.
[27]	龚志文,刘太刚.我国房地产业对土壤的环境影响及对策[J].环境与可持续发展, 2015,40(3):101-105. Gong Z W, Liu T G. The shock and countermeasures of the great leap of real estate to China soil pollution[J]. Environment and Sustainable Development, 2015,40(3):101-105.
[28]	Garcia R, Millan E. Assessment of Cd, Pb and Zn contamination in roadside soils and grasses from Gipuzkoa (Spain)[J]. Chemosphere, 1998,37(8):1615-1625.
[29]	Wierzbicka M, Bemowskakalabun O, Gworek B, et al. Multidimensional evaluation of soil pollution from railway tracks[J]. Ecotoxicology, 2015,24(4):805-822.
[30]	汤明.城镇化过程对鄱阳湖水域生态环境影响研究[D].上海:上海师范大学, 2019. Tang M. Study on the influence of urbanization process on the ecological environment of Poyang Lake Waters[D]. Shanghai:Shanghai Normal University, 2019.
[31]	UNEP, EPO, and ICTSD. Patents and Clean Energy:Bridging the Gap between Evidence and Policy:Final Report[R]. Geneva, Munich, 2010:9.
[32]	陈广汉,蓝宝江.研发支出、竞争程度与我国区域创新能力研究--基于1998~2004年国内专利申请数量与R & D数据的实证分析[J].经济学家, 2007,(3):101-106. Chen G H, Lan B J. Research on R&D spending, competitiveness, and China's regional innovation ability-on the basis of empirical analysis of patent application number and R & Ddata[J]. Economist, 2007,(3):101-106.
[33]	Huanga S Z, Wub T J, Tsaid H T. Hysteresis effects of R & D expenditures and patents on firm performance:An empirical study of Hsinchu Science Park in Taiwan[J]. Filomat, 2016,30(15):4265-4278.
[34]	国家知识产权局.中国绿色专利统计报告(2014-2017年)[EB/OL].(2018-10-08). http://zscq.yichang.gov.cn/content-41188-960667-1.html. National Intellectual Property Administration, PRC. Statistical report on green patents in China (2014-2017)[EB/OL].(2018-10-08). http://zscq.yichang.gov.cn/content-41188-960667-1.html.