Identification of groundwater contamination sources considering parameter uncertainty
LI Jiu-hui1,2,3, LU Wen-xi1,2,3, CHANG Zhen-bo1,2,3, WANG Han1,2,3, FAN Yue1,2,3
1. Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Ministry of Education, Changchun 130021, China; 2. Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China; 3. College of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China
Abstract：To analyze the influence of parameter uncertainty on the identification of groundwater contamination sources, a calculation model describing the relationship between hydraulic conductivity and contaminant release intensity was established through the comprehensive application of the simulation-based optimization method, sensitivity analysis method, Monte Carlo method and Kriging method. The results showed that the calculation model had high accuracy, the certainty coefficient and average relative error were 0.9895 and 4.51%, respectively; the contamination sources identification results under the influence of 8000 groups of hydraulic conductivity were calculated with the new model, which brought about 99% saving in the calculation load and time. Through quantitative statistical analysis of 8000 groups of contamination sources identification results, the contamination sources with the highest probability density were identified, along with the confidence intervals of contamination sources identification results corresponding to 80%, 60%, 40% and 20%. This study improved the applicability of simulation-based optimization method to identify groundwater contamination sources when facing the disadvantage caused by the parameter uncertainty, thus, can provide more reference for decision makers.
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