Abstract：Considering the uncertainty of water environment, an uncertain water environmental capacity calculating method based on Bayesian formula was demonstrated in this study, and it was applied to Beiyunhe river basin for its validation. With the knowledge of Bayesian formula, the probability distributions of 5 random variables which were involved in the calculation of water environmental capacity, including water flow, flow velocity, pollutant concentration, integrated attenuation coefficient of pollutants and water environmental capacity itself, were presented. The results showed that the probability distributions of the water environmental capacity of 10 river reaches in Beiyunhe river were all light tailed distribution. Water flow and length of the river reaches had the greatest impact on the distribution. Compared with the traditional calculating method of water environmental capacity, uncertain water environmental capacity calculating method generated the distribution of water environmental capacity, which not only presented the knowledge of the former, but also took the randomness of each parameter and observed data into account to further "correct" the former, so that we can understand water environment with a better comprehensive description.
曹若馨, 曾维华, 李晴, 马鹏宇. 基于贝叶斯公式的不确定性水环境容量研究——以北运河为例[J]. 中国环境科学, 2021, 41(2): 743-754.
CAO Ruo-xin, ZENG Wei-hua, LI Qing, MA Peng-yu. Uncertain water environmental capacity based on Bayesian formula-taking Beiyunhe river as example. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(2): 743-754.
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