Influence of ship emissions and its uncertainty on air quality in China
WU Yu-qi1, HUANG Zhi-jiong2, ZHANG Zhi-wei1, ZHANG Li-hang1, WANG Yan-long1, XIE Yan1, WANG Yi-ran1, ZHENG Jun-yu2
1. School of Environment and Energy, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; 2. Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou 511486, China
Abstract：Ship emissions were an important anthropogenic emission source in China's coastal areas. Most ship emissions assessment studies only focused on regional-scale impact analysis, but ignored the uncertainty of the emission inventories, which weakened the reliability of the assessment results to a certain extent. In this study, an air quality simulation platform based on WRF-SMOKE-CAMQ was built to quantitatively identify the impact of ship emissions on the air quality of seven coastal port cities in summer. The result showed that the contribution range of ship emission to the concentration of SO2, NOx and PM2.5 was 16.5%~62.5%, 21.9%~72.9% and 5.9%~26.0% respectively in the main coastal port cities of China, especially in Ningbo, Qingdao and Shenzhen, which mainly due to the ship emissions intensity and atmospheric transmission. The contribution concentration range of the total uncertainty of ship emission inventory to SO2, NOx and PM2.5 was 1.0~3.1, 2.1~5.5 and 0.3~0.9μg/m3 respectively in coastal cities in summer. The contribution concentration range of the uncertainty of different spatial-temporal allocation schemes to SO2, NOx and PM2.5 was 1.9~15.7, 5.1~29.3 and 0.6~2.5μg/m3 respectively. It could be seen that the uncertainty of the ship emissions inventory had a significant impact on the quantification of the contribution of ship emissions to air quality of coastal cities. Therefore, the impact of ship emissions on the air quality of port cities evaluated, the uncertainty of ship emissions inventories, especially the uncertainty of spatial-temporal allocation, must be considered. Reasonable spatial-temporal allocation can improve the quality of ship emission inventory and the accuracy of coastal air quality simulation.
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