中国城市人口规模、产业集聚与碳排放

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摘要基于2009~2018年中国286个地级市面板数据，构建空间计量模型，从城市人口规模和产业集聚的综合视角探讨对于人均碳排放的影响机制.结果显示：不同城市的人均CO₂排放具有显著的空间溢出效应；城市人口规模和产业集聚与人均CO₂排放之间均呈“倒U型”关系，且影响机制各不相同；产业集聚与城市人口规模在影响碳排放上具有协同效应；中国东中西地区及南北地区在碳排放及其影响机制上具有显著差异；地区差异、经济发展程度差异等一系列稳健性检验均验证了上述结论的可靠性.因此各地政府在制定可持续发展政策时要针对城市人口规模、产业集聚和低碳统筹发展，合理制定人口、产业和节能减排政策.

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	张华明
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关键词 ：城市人口规模, 产业集聚, 碳排放, 空间溢出, 区域异质性

Abstract：Using the panel data of 286 cities in China during 2009~2018, a spatial econometric model was employed to explore the mechanism between CO₂ emissions and the size of city population and industrial agglomeration. The results revealed that CO₂ emissions per capita in different cities presented significant spatial spillover effects. Specifically, the impact of the city population size and industrial agglomeration on CO₂ emissions per capita presented an inverted U shape. CO₂ emissions were synergistically affected by city population size and industrial agglomeration. There were significant differences in CO₂ emissions and associated mechanism across different Chinese regions. A series of robustness tests confirmed our main findings. Therefore, for sustainable development policymaking, local governments should rationally formulate policies on energy conservation and emission reduction in accordance with the size of city population and industrial agglomeration.

Key words： city population size industrial agglomeration CO₂ emissions spatial spillover regional heterogeneity

收稿日期: 2020-10-10

PACS:

X324

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目（71774105）；山西省哲学社会科学规划课题（2019B153）

通讯作者: 张华明,教授,zhm5665@126.com E-mail: zhm5665@126.com

作者简介: 张华明(1975-),男,山西霍州人,教授,博士,主要从事宏观经济分析,能源经济管理研究.发表论文30余篇.

引用本文:

张华明, 元鹏飞, 朱治双. 中国城市人口规模、产业集聚与碳排放[J]. 中国环境科学, 2021, 41(5): 2459-2470. ZHANG Hua-ming, YUAN Peng-fei, ZHU Zhi-shuang. City population size, industrial agglomeration and CO₂ emission in Chinese prefectures. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(5): 2459-2470.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2021/V41/I5/2459

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